Download or read book Complex Decision Making written by Hassan Qudrat-Ullah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-09-22 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.
Download or read book Decision Making in Complex Environments written by Dr Jan Noyes and published by Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2012-10-01 with total page 478 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many complex systems in civil and military operations are highly automated with the intention of supporting human performance in difficult cognitive tasks. The complex systems can involve teams or individuals working on real-time supervisory control, command or information management tasks where a number of constraints must be satisfied. Decision Making in Complex Environments addresses the role of the human, the technology and the processes in complex socio-technical and technological systems. The aim of the book is to apply a multi-disciplinary perspective to the examination of the human factors in complex decision making. It contains more than 30 contributions on key subjects such as military human factors, team decision making issues, situation awareness, and technology support. In addition to the major application area of military human factors there are chapters on business, medical, governmental and aeronautical decision making. The book provides a unique blend of expertise from psychology, human factors, industry, commercial environments, the military, computer science, organizational psychology and training that should be valuable to academics and practitioners alike.
Download or read book Multi Criteria Decision Making for the Management of Complex Systems written by Voronin, Albert and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2017-03-20 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While there are many different models for performing system analysis, the multi-criteria decision making method has proven to be one of the most efficient. By analyzing the key concepts of this theory, the technique can be enhanced and will benefit future organizations and companies in novel ways. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for the Management of Complex Systems provides a comprehensive examination of the latest strategies and methods involved in decision theory. Featuring extensive coverage on relevant topics such as nested scalar convolutions, Pareto optimality, nonlinear schemes, and operator performance, this publication is ideally designed for engineers, students, professionals, academics, and researchers seeking innovative perspectives on the supervision of advanced decision making theories in system analysis.
Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by Terry Connolly and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 814 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
Download or read book Multi stakeholder Decision Making For Complex Problems A Systems Thinking Approach With Cases written by Kambiz Maani and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2016-11-28 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the complex world of today, important policy and business decisions are still made with a 17th Century reductionist mindset and approach. Yet, complex challenges such as climate change, poverty, public health, security, energy futures, and sustainability transcend any single science, discipline or agency. Rather, they require integration of social, economic, cultural, political, and environmental concerns to achieve acceptable and sustainable outcomes. This entails synthesis of diverse knowledge and perspectives in a transparent and unifying decision-making process, engaging stakeholders with competing interests, perspectives, and agendas under uncertain and often adversarial conditions.Multi-Stakeholder Decision Making for Complex Problems — A Systems Thinking Approach with Cases brings together a unique self-contained volume to address this challenge. The book introduces the systems approach in non-technical language for multi-issue, multi-stakeholder decision making supplemented by numerous case studies including business, economics, healthcare, agriculture, energy, sustainability, policy, and planning. The book provides a fresh and timely approach with practical tools for dealing with complex challenges facing evolving global business and society today.
Download or read book Decision Control Management and Support in Adaptive and Complex Systems written by Yuri P. Pavlov and published by . This book was released on 2012-12-24 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book presents an application and demonstration of a new mathematical technique for descriptions of complex systems"--Provided by publisher.
Download or read book An Introduction to Complex Systems written by Joe Tranquillo and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-02-13 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the interdisciplinary field of complex systems theory. By the end of the book, readers will be able to understand terminology that is used in complex systems and how they are related to one another; see the patterns of complex systems in practical examples; map current topics, in a variety of fields, to complexity theory; and be able to read more advanced literature in the field. The book begins with basic systems concepts and moves on to how these simple rules can lead to complex behavior. The author then introduces non-linear systems, followed by pattern formation, and networks and information flow in systems. Later chapters cover the thermodynamics of complex systems, dynamical patterns that arise in networks, and how game theory can serve as a framework for decision making. The text is interspersed with both philosophical and quantitative arguments, and each chapter ends with questions and prompts that help readers make more connections. “The text provides a useful overview of complex systems, with enough detail to allow a reader unfamiliar with the topic to understand the basics. The book stands out for its comprehensiveness and approachability. It will be particularly useful as a text for introductory physics courses. Tranquillo’s strength is in delivering a vast amount of information in a succinct manner.... A reader can find information quickly and efficiently—that is, in my opinion, the book’s greatest value.” (Stefani Crabtree, Physics Today)
Download or read book Decision Making in Complex Systems written by Marina V. Sokolova and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-13 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of complex systems attracts the attention of many researchers in diverse fields. Complex systems are characterized by a high number of entities and a high degree of interactions. One of the most important features is that they do not involve a central organizing authority, but the various elements that make up the systems are self-organized. Moreover, some complex systems possess an emergency priority: climate change and sustainable development research, studies of public health, ecosystem habitats, epidemiology, and medicine, among others. Unfortunately, a great number of today’s overlapping approaches fail to meet the needs of decision makers when managing complex domains. Indeed, the design of complex systems often requires the integration of a number of artificial intelligence tools and techniques. The problem can be viewed in terms of goals, states, and actions, choosing the best action to move the system toward its desired state or behavior. This is why agent-based approaches are used to model complex systems. The main objective of this book is to bring together existing methods for decision support systems creation within a coherent agent-based framework and to provide an interdisciplinary and flexible methodology for modeling complex and systemic domains.
Download or read book Collaborative Modeling and Decision making for Complex Energy Systems written by Ali Mostashari and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offers the fundamentals of involving stakeholders in collaborative modeling of energy systems, including the technical subsystem as well as its economic, social, environmental and political subsystems. By illustrating the capabilities of the SAM-PD framework, this book introduces an actual case study of the Cape Wind Offshore Wind Energy project.
Download or read book Systems Science for Complex Policy Making written by Kuntoro Mangkusubroto and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-27 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume applies a systems science perspective to complex policy making dynamics, using the case of Indonesia to illustrate the concepts. Indonesia is an archipelago with a high heterogeneity. Her people consist of 1,340 tribes who are scattered over 17,508 islands. Every region has different natural strengths and conditions. In the national development process all regions depend on one another other while optimizing their own conditions. In addition to this diversity, Indonesia also employs a democratic system of government with high regional autonomy. A democratic government puts a high value on individual freedom, but on the other hand, conflicts of interest also occur frequently. High regional autonomy also often causes problems in coordination among agencies and regional governments. This uniqueness creates a kind of complexity that is rarely found in other countries.These daily complexities requires intensive interaction, negotiation processes, and coordination. Such necessities should be considered in public policy making and in managing the implementation of national development programs. In this context, common theories and best practices generated on the basis of more simplified assumptions often fail. Systems science offer a way of thinking that can take into account and potentially overcome these complexities. However, efforts to apply systems science massively and continuously in real policy making by involving many stakeholders are still rarely carried out. The first part of the book discusses the gap between the existing public policy-making approach and needs in the real world. After that, the characteristics of the appropriate policy-making process in a complex environment and how this process can be carried are described. In later sections, important systems science concepts that can be applied in managing these complexities are discussed. Finally, the efforts to apply these concepts in real cases in Indonesia are described.
Download or read book Managing Complex Systems written by Howard Eisner and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-06 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nine innovative methods to think outside the box and solve complex system problems Managing Complex Systems provides specific tools and guidance needed to be a more creative and innovative thinker. Following the author's methodology, the reader will be better able to devise and implement nontraditional solutions to seemingly intractable complex problems. By challenging the reader to think in new and creative ways, the book offers a road map to success, whether measured in terms of competitive advantage, greater market share, improved productivity, or higher profits, all based upon better solutions to difficult problems. The first four chapters set the foundation for creative thinking by exploring the nature of large-scale systems and complexity, thinking inside and outside the box, and examples of how an inventive mind solves problems in both management and scientific domains. Subsequent chapters address nine focused methods that the author has formulated to help the reader think outside the box: * Broaden and generalize * Crossover * Question conventional wisdom * Back of the envelope * Expanding the dimensions * Obversity * Remove constraints * Thinking with pictures * Systems approach Real-life examples are provided for each method that demonstrate how the approach enhances problem solving and decision making in system development and management. Following the discussion of the nine methods, the author examines group decision making as well as additional creative thinking procedures devised by other researchers, including references that assist in exploring these methods in greater detail. The author ends with a wrap-up chapter that includes a test to help readers practice their tendencies toward creative thinking skills and action with respect to solving real-world problems. The nine methods discussed in this book have broad applicability and can be used successfully by managers with a wide range of responsibilities in business and technology. For anyone who is tired of the same old approach with the same old results, this book is essential reading.
Download or read book Experts in Uncertainty written by Roger M. Cooke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1991-10-24 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Download or read book Simple Rules written by Donald Norman Sull and published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. This book was released on 2015 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outlines an approach to high-performance problem solving and decision making that draws on insights from survival guides, pop culture, and other sources.
Download or read book Distributed Decision Making written by Christoph Schneeweiss and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-11-07 with total page 533 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Distributed decision making (DDM) has become of increasing importance in quantitative decision analysis. In applications like supply chain management, service operations, or managerial accounting, DDM has led to a paradigm shift. The book provides a unified approach to such seemingly diverse fields as multi-level stochastic programming, hierarchical production planning, principal agent theory, negotiations or contract theory. Different settings like multi-level one-person decision problems, multi-person antagonistic planning, and leadership situations are covered. Numerous examples and real-life planning cases illustrate the concepts. The new edition has been considerably expanded by additional chapters on supply chain management, service operations and multi-agent systems.
Download or read book Systemic Decision Making written by Patrick T. Hester and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-04-22 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This expanded second edition of the 2014 textbook features dedicated sections on action and observation, so that the reader can combine the use of the developed theoretical basis with practical guidelines for deployment. It also includes a focus on selection and use of a dedicated modeling paradigm – fuzzy cognitive mapping – to facilitate use of the proposed multi-methodology. The end goal of the text is a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to structuring and assessing complex problems, including a dedicated discussion of thinking, acting, and observing complex problems. The multi-methodology developed is scientifically grounded in systems theory and its accompanying principles, while the process emphasizes the nonlinear nature of all complex problem-solving endeavors. The authors’ clear and consistent chapter structure facilitates the book’s use in the classroom.
Download or read book Complex Systems in Sport written by Keith Davids and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-11-20 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complex systems in nature are those with many interacting parts, all capable of influencing global system outcomes. There is a growing body of research that has modeled sport performance from a complexity sciences perspective, studying the behavior of individual athletes and sports teams as emergent phenomena which self-organise under interacting constraints. This book is the first to bring together experts studying complex systems in the context of sport from across the world to collate core theoretical ideas, current methodologies and existing data into one comprehensive resource. It offers new methods of analysis for investigating representative complex sport movements and actions at an individual and team level, exploring the application of methodologies from the complexity sciences in the context of sports performance and the organization of sport practice. Complex Systems in Sport is important reading for any advanced student or researcher working in sport and exercise science, sports coaching, kinesiology or human movement.
Download or read book Complex Systems and Self organization Modelling written by Cyrille Bertelle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-03 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, the outcome of a workshop meeting within ESM 2006, explores the use of emergent computing and self-organization modeling within various applications of complex systems.
