Download or read book Costs of Sovereign Defaults Restructuring Strategies Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow Credit Channel written by Mr.Tamon Asonuma and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-25 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows. The transmission channels and associated output and banking sector costs depend on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively, without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. Post-default restructurings are associated with larger declines in bank credit, an increase in lending interest rates, and a higher likelihood of triggering a banking crisis than pre-emptive restructurings. Our local projection estimates show large declines in GDP, investment, and credit amplified by severe sudden stops and transmitted through a “capital inflow-credit channel”.
Download or read book Managing the Sovereign Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Download or read book From Banking to Sovereign Stress Implications For Public Debt written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-22 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Download or read book Green Growth in South Asia written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2023-10-03 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Notwithstanding global growth weakness and financial pressures, growth in South Asia is expected to remain robust, supported by slower fiscal consolidation than in other EMDEs, strong public investment, and a recovery as financial stress has subsided. Policy challenges include, in the short-term, preserving financial stability and restoring fiscal sustainability and, in the long-term, rekindling investment, and managing an energy transition. Currently, the energy intensity of South Asian economies is almost twice the global average—despite a decline over the past two decades that was almost entirely driven by firm-level, within-sector cuts in energy intensity. The potential benefit of regulatory policies, information interventions, and financial support to help accelerate the diffusion of these technologies, as well as the possibility that these could also lend broader support for countries' development objectives. The transition away from fossil fuels may have considerable labor market impacts. A wide range of policies, including better access to high-quality education, finance, and markets; improved labor mobility; and strengthened social safety nets, will be needed to facilitate the adjustment in labor markets while protecting vulnerable workers.
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book Fiscal Policy in a Turbulent Era written by Enrique Alberola and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-02-12 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising the regained importance of fiscal policy over the last two decades, this timely book provides much-needed insight into the changing practice of fiscal policy and how it is adapting to the unpredictable nature of the 21st century. Expert academic and practitioner contributors consider the resources which underpin current fiscal policy, assessing its overall effectiveness before outlining the changing priorities –ageing, inequality, climate change- and the financial tools available, and considering the future of fiscal policy in uncertain times.
Download or read book The Practice of Lending written by Terence M. Yhip and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-02-25 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive treatment of credit risk assessment and credit risk rating that meets the Advanced Internal Risk-Based (AIRB) approach of Basel II. Credit risk analysis looks at many risks and this book covers all the critical areas that credit professionals need to know, including country analysis, industry analysis, financial analysis, business analysis, and management analysis. Organized under two methodological approaches to credit analysis—a criteria-based approach, which is a hybrid of expert judgement and purely mathematical methodologies, and a mathematical approach using regression analysis to model default probability—the book covers a cross-section of industries including passenger airline, commercial real estate, and commercial banking. In three parts, the sections focus on hybrid models, statistical models, and credit management. While the book provides theory and principles, its emphasis is on practical applications, and will appeal to credit practitioners in the banking and investment community alongside college and university students who are preparing for a career in lending.
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Download or read book The Handbook of Global Shadow Banking Volume I written by Luc Nijs and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page 822 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This global handbook provides an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of shadow banking, or market-based finance as it has been recently coined. Engaging in financial intermediary services outside of normal regulatory parameters, the shadow banking sector was arguably a critical factor in causing the 2007-2009 financial crisis. This volume focuses specifically on shadow banking activities, risk, policy and regulatory issues. It evaluates the nexus between policy design and regulatory output around the world, paying attention to the concept of risk in all its dimensions—the legal, financial, market, economic and monetary perspectives. Particular attention is given to spillover risk, contagion risk and systemic risk and their positioning and relevance in shadow banking activities. Newly introduced and incoming policies are evaluated in detail, as well as how risk is managed, observed and assessed, and how new regulation can potentially create new sources of risk. Volume I concludes with analysis of what will and still needs to happen in the event of another crisis. Proposing innovative suggestions for improvement, including a novel Pigovian tax to tame financial and systemic risks, this handbook is a must-read for professionals and policy-makers within the banking sector, as well as those researching economics and finance.
Download or read book Mediating Sovereign Debt Disputes written by Calliope Makedon Sudborough and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024-01-08 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a fresh perspective on resolving sovereign debt disputes within the investor-state mediation framework. In response to the limitations of traditional approaches to adjudicating public debt issues and the resulting gaps in international law concerning sovereign defaults, creditors have increasingly turned to investor-state treaty arbitrations to recover unpaid debts. However, this shift has raised numerous criticisms and concerns. Accordingly, this book explores the uncharted territory of utilizing mediation as a means to settle sovereign debt claims. It sheds light on the distinctive characteristics of mediation as a process, setting it apart from judicial litigation and private arbitration, and emphasizing the unique outcomes it can generate. The central argument of this book is that mediation should be seriously considered as a viable option for resolving sovereign debt disputes. Not only does it offer a more cost-effective and expeditious approach, but it also has the potential to facilitate economic recovery and sustain continued investment.
Download or read book The Fund s Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt Further Considerations written by and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2015-09-04 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In discussing the June 2014 paper, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to introduce more flexibility into the Fund’s exceptional access framework to reduce unnecessary costs for the member, its creditors, and the overall system. Directors’ views varied on staff’s proposal to eliminate the systemic exemption introduced in 2010. Many Directors favored removing the exemption but some others preferred to retain it and requested staff to consult further with relevant stakeholders on possible approaches to managing contagion. This paper offers specific proposals on how the Fund’s policy framework could be changed, presents staff’s analysis on the specific issue of managing contagion, and addresses some implementation issues. No Board decision is proposed at this stage. The paper is consistent with the Executive Board’s May 2013 endorsement of a work program focused on strengthening market-based approaches to resolving sovereign debt crises.
Download or read book Debt Is Not Free written by Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-03 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-18 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
Download or read book Economic Growth After Debt Surges written by João Tovar Jalles and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-29 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Debt levels, both private and public, were already at record highs before the Covid-19 pandemic, and surged further in 2020. The high indebteness raises concerns whether it will undermine future growth prospects. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate by examining what happens to economic growth after debt surges. We apply a local projection method to a new dataset of debt surges in 190 countries between 1970 and 2020. Our results show that the relationship between debt surges and economic growth are complex. Debt surges tend to be followed by weaker economic growth and persistently lower output. However, this negative relationship does not always hold. Surges in public debt tend to have the most negative impact on future growth prospects. This is particularly the case if the economy is already operating with a large positive output gap. Debt surges also tend to be followed by weaker economic growth if the initial debt levels are high, especially for private debt surges. Our results also show how debt surges impact future growth. Public debt surges are associated with especially weaker private and public investment, although both private and public consumption are also negatively affected. Surges in corporate debt are followed by lower private and public investment.
Download or read book Growth and Adjustment in IMF Supported Programs written by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-09-09 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950 2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
