Download or read book Convective Mode Climatology of Tennessee Tornado Events and Effect on National Weather Service Warning Processes written by Kelly Nicole Gassert and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tennessee resides in the Southeastern United States, a region prone to violent tornadoes on a year-round basis. With one of the highest tornado fatality rates in the country, and a climatology that varies across the state, analysis of storms resulting in Tennessee tornadoes is necessary for improving forecasting techniques and decreasing loss of life. This study analyzed convective modes responsible for Tennessee tornadoes from 2003 to 2014 to determine an association with fatalities, seasonality, day and night, tornado magnitude, regionality, and multiple-tornado days. Chi-squared tests were conducted to determine if these patterns were significant. National Weather Service forecasters from the Morristown, Tennessee, Weather Forecast Office (WFO) were interviewed to gain insight into how convective mode affects tornado forecasting and warning procedures. Discrete supercells were the overwhelming producer of tornado-related fatalities, higher-magnitude (≥ EF2) tornadoes, and multiple-day tornadoes. Quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) produced only non-fatal tornadoes with magnitudes of ≤ EF2 during the period; however, QLCS tornadoes were more frequent at night and in winter, when the public may have been more vulnerable. Spring was the most tornadic season, but approximately 37% of tornadoes occurred outside of this season. Multiple-tornado days were major contributors to tornado totals, with just over half of the 427 tornadoes occurring on ten days. I found no clear longitudinal gradient of convective mode or tornado characteristics across Tennessee. Chi-squared results indicated a relationship between convective mode tornado production and fatalities, seasonality, day and night, magnitude, and region of Tennessee. Forecasters commented on the relative ease associated with warning for discrete supercells, resulting in higher probability of detection, lower false alarm ratios, and longer lead times when compared to QLCSs. Forecasters shared invaluable information concerning staffing considerations and warning decisions during severe weather events. This mixed-methods approach provided a comprehensive assessment of how convective mode affects tornado production and warning procedures, contributing to the emerging field of critical physical geography. Future work will include interviews with forecasters from the Memphis and Nashville WFOs, leading to a more comprehensive discussion of how modes differentially affect warning and forecasting procedures across Tennessee.
Download or read book Severe Convective Storms written by Charles Doswell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-03-30 with total page 567 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This highly illustrated book is a collection of 13 review papers focusing on convective storms and the weather they produce. It discusses severe convective storms, mesoscale processes, tornadoes and tornadic storms, severe local storms, flash flood forecast and the electrification of severe storms.
Download or read book Tornado Preparedness Planning written by United States. National Weather Service and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Download or read book Tornado Warnings and Weather Service Modernization written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 593 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Download or read book Extreme Weather written by Robert K. Doe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-12-14 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about weather extremes in the United Kingdom. It presents fascinating and detailed insights into tornadoes (supercell and non-supercell tornadoes, historical and contemporary case studies, frequency and spatial distributions, and unique data on extreme events); thunderstorms (epic event analysis and observing); hailstorms (intensity, distributions and frequency of high magnitude events); lightning (lightning as a hazard, impacts and injuries); ball lightning (definitions, impacts and case studies); flooding (historical and contemporary analysis, extreme rainfall and flash flooding); snowfalls (heavy snowfall days and events). It also looks at researching weather extremes, provides guidance on performing post-storm site investigations and details what is involved in severe weather forecasting. It is written by members, directors and past and present Heads of the research group the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO). With fifteen chapters thematically arranged, and data appendix including a new tornado map of the U.K., this book presents a wealth of information on meteorological extremes. This volume is aimed primarily at researchers in the field of meteorology and climatology, but will also be of interest to advanced undergraduate students taking relevant courses in this area.
Download or read book Reducing Tornado Warning False Alarm Rates Across the National Weather Service Memphis County Warning Area written by Preston Jewel Bradley and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tornado detection has improved in recent years due, in part, to the deployment of dual-polarization radar technology. Depsite these improvements, false alarm rates (FAR) for tornado warnings remain high over Memphis, TN County Warning Area. The purpose of this research was to use a suite of radar products and storm environmental parameters in an effort to decrease tornado warning FAR over the Mid-South. The Memphis National Weather Service Forecast Office County Warning Area (CWA) serves as the study area for this reseach. Previous research has shown that storm mode and environment can imact FAR. Therefore, by combining radar products and storm environment, tornadic and non-tornadic events could be distinguished and the FAR could be reduced. Results suggest that some combination of rotational velocity and a modifed energy-helicity index that places more emphasis on shear and is sensitive to low convectively available potential energy (CAPE) values might aid in reducing tornado warning FAR. .
Download or read book Tornadoes written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science. Subcommittee on Energy and Environment and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Scanning the Skies written by Marlene Bradford and published by University of Oklahoma Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tornadoes, nature's most violent and unpredictable storms, descend from the clouds nearly one thousand times yearly and have claimed eighteen thousand American lives since 1880. However, the U.S. Weather Bureau--fearing public panic and believing tornadoes were too fleeting for meteorologists to predict--forbade the use of the word "tornado" in forecasts until 1938. Scanning the Skies traces the history of today's tornado warning system, a unique program that integrates federal, state, and local governments, privately controlled broadcast media, and individuals. Bradford examines the ways in which the tornado warning system has grown from meager beginnings into a program that protects millions of Americans each year. Although no tornado forecasting program existed before WWII, the needs of the military prompted the development of a severe weather warning system in tornado prone areas. Bradford traces the post-war creation of the Air Force centralized tornado forecasting program and its civilian counterpart at the Weather Bureau. Improvements in communication, especially the increasing popularity of television, allowed the Bureau to expand its warning system further. This book highlights the modern tornado watch system and explains how advancements during the latter half of the twentieth-century--such as computerized data collection and processing systems, Doppler radar, state-of-the-art television weather centers, and an extensive public education program--have resulted in the drastic reduction of tornado fatalities.
Download or read book Tornadoes and Severe Storms Awareness Campaign Workbook written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book History of Tornado Observations and Data Sources written by United States. Weather Bureau and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Watches and Warnings and the Epidemiological Effects of Tornadoes written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Verification and Analysis of Impact based Tornado Warnings in the Central Region of the National Weather Service written by Holly B. Obermeier and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tornado warnings are one of the most critical products issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), and favorable verification statistics are desirable. The 2011 NWS statistics for traditional tornado warnings indicate that the probability of detection (POD) is 70%, while the false alarm rate (FAR) is 76%. The recent Joplin, Missouri EF5 tornado event on 22 May 2011, which resulted in massive devastation and loss of life, prompted the NWS to re-evaluate the current tornado warning format. After the Joplin, MO event, the Central Region of the NWS implemented the impact-based tornado warning (IBTW) experiment in 2013. IBTWs consist of tiers including damage tags and impact wording which convey increasing levels of damage. The damage wording within an IBTW is shown to relate to the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale. Wording included in non-tagged IBTWs corresponds to EF0-EF2 tornado damage, while the damage wording for tagged IBTWs corresponds to EF3-EF5 tornado damage. This study investigates the accuracy of IBTWs by examining if a tornado occurs during the warning time frame, and whether the resulting damage matches the damage wording in the IBTW. All IBTWs from 1 April 2013 through 30 November 2013 are collected, as well as tornado survey information, including EF Scale intensity, for every tornado which occurred in the Central Region during the same time period. Using these survey data, IBTWs are verified by the intensity of the tornado, if one occurs. POD and FAR statistics are calculated through 2x2 contingency tables for both non-tagged and tagged IBTWs. Results indicate that the majority of both non-tagged and tagged IBTWs are false alarms, and tagged IBTWs have a very low POD. Case studies of several events explore successful and unsuccessful implementation of damage tags, revealing that limitations in current technology and scientific knowledge may contribute to false alarms and missed detections. These findings suggest that more advances in technology and the understanding of tornadogenesis are necessary for more successful implementation of IBTWs.
Download or read book The Widespread Tornado Outbreak of April 3 4 1974 written by United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Natural Disaster Survey Team and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The widespread tornado outbreak of April 3-4, 1974, led to the formation of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration survey team to review the effectiveness of NOAA's tornado warning services. This Natural Disaster Survey Team was formed by the evening of April 4. This report describes the tornado outbreak and presents the findings and recommendations of the survey team"--Foreword.
Download or read book Weather Station Handbook written by Arnold I. Finklin and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
