Download or read book Confused by the Odds written by David Lockwood and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2023-01-24 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confused by the Odds will change the way you think about financial assets, the risks of the next global nuclear war, racial bias in policing, the role of genetics in intelligence, and medical tests. You will learn how to ignore flawed assumptions about the normal distribution of returns from investing in stocks and bitcoin. You will come away with a better understanding of the “Long Peace”—the last three-quarters of a century without a global war—and how it does not necessary bode well for the future. You’ll learn that randomized control experiments, the basis for much of science today, are not the gold standard of proof that most believe them to be and why they are part of the reason for the replicability crisis in science today. You’ll see how the US Navy searches for lost submarines and spam filters identify junk mail. You’ll understand how Democrats and Republicans come to dramatically different conclusions about everything from the outcome of the 2020 election to COVID-19. Confused by the Odds will give you the knowledge and tools to avoid being misled by probability. Many books have been published on probability laden with dense formula and proofs. This is not one of them. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, presents intuitive explanations of the application of probability to practical, everyday problems—without all the equations. Through real-world examples, this book shows us how to never again be confused by the odds.

Download or read book Confused by the Odds written by David Lockwood and published by Greenleaf Book Group Press. This book was released on 2023-01-24 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confused by the Odds will change the way you think about financial assets, the risks of the next global nuclear war, racial bias in policing, the role of genetics in intelligence, and medical tests. You will learn how to ignore flawed assumptions about the normal distribution of returns from investing in stocks and bitcoin. You will come away with a better understanding of the "Long Peace"--the last three-quarters of a century without a global war--and how it does not necessary bode well for the future. You'll learn that randomized control experiments, the basis for much of science today, are not the gold standard of proof that most believe them to be and why they are part of the reason for the replicability crisis in science today. You'll see how the US Navy searches for lost submarines and spam filters identify junk mail. You'll understand how Democrats and Republicans come to dramatically different conclusions about everything from the outcome of the 2020 election to COVID-19. Confused by the Odds will give you the knowledge and tools to avoid being misled by probability. Many books have been published on probability laden with dense formula and proofs. This is not one of them. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, presents intuitive explanations of the application of probability to practical, everyday problems--without all the equations. Through real-world examples, this book shows us how to never again be confused by the odds.

Download or read book The Mighty Odds The Odds Series 1 written by Amy Ignatow and published by Abrams. This book was released on 2016-09-13 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the renowned author/illustrator of the Popularity Papers series, Amy Ignatow, comes the first installment in a new series about a diverse crew of middle school kids who develop very limited superhero powers after a strange accident and manage to become unlikely friends on the adventure of a lifetime. When a sweet nerd, an artsy cartoonist, a social outcast, and the most popular girl in school are involved in a mysterious bus accident, this seemingly random group of kids starts to notice some very strange abilities they did not have before. Artsy Martina can change her eye color. Nerdy Nick can teleport . . . four inches to the left. Outcast Farshad develops super strength, but only in his thumbs. And Cookie, the It Girl of school’s most popular clique, has suddenly developed the ability to read minds . . . when those minds are thinking about directions. They are oddly mighty—especially together. This group—who would never hang out under normal circumstances—must now combine all of their strengths to figure out what happened during the bus accident. With alternating narratives from each of the heroes, including illustrated pieces from Martina, and featuring bold female superheroes and a multicultural cast, The Mighty Odds is The Breakfast Club for a new generation. For more books by Amy Ignatow, check out her critically acclaimed Popularity Papers series: Book One: Research for the Social Improvement and General Betterment of Lydia Goldblatt and Julie Graham Chang; Book Two: The Long-Distance Dispatch; Book Three: Words of (Questionable) Wisdom; Book Four: The Rocky Road Trip; Book Five: The Awesomely Awful Melodies; Book Six: Love and Other Fiascos; and Book Seven: The Less-Than-Hidden Secrets and Final Revelations.

Download or read book Stochastic Processes Estimation and Control written by Jason L. Speyer and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2008-01-01 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty and risk are integral to engineering because real systems have inherent ambiguities that arise naturally or due to our inability to model complex physics. The authors discuss probability theory, stochastic processes, estimation, and stochastic control strategies and show how probability can be used to model uncertainty in control and estimation problems. The material is practical and rich in research opportunities.

Download or read book Categorical Data Analysis for the Behavioral and Social Sciences written by Razia Azen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-01-07 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Featuring a practical approach with numerous examples, this book focuses on helping the reader develop a conceptual, rather than technical, understanding of categorical methods, making it a much more accessible text than others on the market. The authors cover common categorical analyses and emphasize specific research questions that can be addressed by each analytic procedure so that readers are able to address the research questions they wish to answer. To achieve this goal, the authors: Review the theoretical implications and assumptions underlying each of the procedures Present each concept in general terms and illustrate each with a practical example Demonstrate the analyses using SPSS and SAS and show the interpretation of the results provided by these programs. A "Look Ahead" section at the beginning of each chapter provides an overview of the material covered so that the reader knows what to expect. This is followed by one or more research questions that can be addressed using the procedure(s) covered in the chapter. A theoretical presentation of the material is provided and illustrated using realistic examples from the behavioral and social sciences. To further enhance accessibility, the new procedures introduced in the book are explicitly related to analytic procedures covered in earlier statistics courses, such as ANOVA and linear regression. Throughout each chapter the authors use practical examples to demonstrate how to obtain and interpret statistical output in both SPSS and SAS. Their emphasis on the relationship between the initial research question, the use of the software to carry out the analysis, and the interpretation of the output as it relates to the initial research question, allows readers to easily apply the material to their own research. The data sets for executing chapter examples using SAS Version 9.1.3 and/or IBM SPSS Version 18 are available on a book specific web site. These data sets and syntax allow readers to quickly run the programs and obtain the appropriate output. The book also includes both conceptual and analytic end-of-chapter exercises to assist instructors and students in evaluating the understanding of the material covered in each chapter. This book covers the most commonly used categorical data analysis procedures. It is written for those without an extensive mathematical background, and is ideal for graduate courses in categorical data analysis or cross-classified data analysis taught in departments of psychology, human development & family studies, sociology, education, and business. Researchers in these disciplines interested in applying these procedures to their own research will appreciate this book’s accessible approach.

Download or read book The Complete Problem Solver written by John R. Hayes and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-04-03 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique volume returns in its second edition, revised and updated with the latest advances in problem solving research. It is designed to provide readers with skills that will make them better problem solvers and to give up-to-date information about the psychology of problem solving. Professor Hayes provides students and professionals with practical, tested methods of defining, representing, and solving problems. Each discussion of the important aspects of human problem solving is supported by the most current research on the psychology problem solving. The Complete Problem Solver, Second Edition features: *Valuable learning strategies; *Decision making methods; *Discussions of the nature of creativity and invention, and *A new chapter on writing. The Complete Problem Solver utilizes numerous examples, diagrams, illustrations, and charts to help any reader become better at problem solving. See the order form for the answer to the problem below.

Download or read book Surprises in Probability written by Henk Tijms and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-08-30 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together a variety of probability applications through entertaining stories that will appeal to a broad readership. What are the best stopping rules for the dating problem? What can Bayes’ formula tell us about the chances of a Champions League draw for soccer teams being rigged? How could syndicates win millions of lottery dollars by buying a multitude of tickets at the right time? What’s the best way to manage your betting bankroll in a game in which you have an edge? How to use probability to debunk quacks and psychic mediums? How can the Monte Carlo simulation be used to solve a wide variety of probability problems? Are seven riffle shuffles of a standard deck of 52 playing cards enough for randomness? Provides seventeen engaging stories that illustrate ideas in probability. Written so as to be suitable for those with minimal mathematical background. Stories can be read independently. Can be used as examples and exercises for teaching introductory probability. These questions and many more are addressed in seventeen short chapters that can be read independently. The engaging stories are instructive and demonstrate valuable probabilistic ideas. They offer students material that they most likely don’t learn in class, and offer teachers a new way of teaching their subject.

Download or read book Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2002 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Download or read book Fooled by the Winners written by David Lockwood and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2021-11-09 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fooled by the Winners will change the way you think about the stock market, health care, global warming, diets, lotteries, restaurants, and your siblings. It will reshape your perspective of the past and give you a clearer view of the future. Fooled by the Winners is a book about survivor bias, the cognitive error of focusing on the winners, the successes, and the living. But in many instances, we can learn more from those who have lost, failed, or died. After reading this book, you will understand how survivor bias is often used to deceive us. You will learn how to stop paying for financial services that promise more than they deliver, for health care that doesn’t make us healthier, for diets that don’t make us slimmer, and for advice books that don’t offer good advice. You will also come away with a different view of our past, including our perilous evolutionary journey and how history has often been written by the winners. You will come to understand how we are fooled by the winners in warfare, such as in the deployment of nuclear weapons and the most famous example of survivor bias—the missing Allied bombers of WWII. Previous studies of survivor bias have been inaccessible to most, housed in formula-laden statistical journals. But you won’t find any math or technical jargon here. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, applies the concept of survivor bias to specific, real-world examples—minus the equations. Through compelling analysis and the real-life stories, this book demonstrates the deceptive influence of survivor bias in our daily lives and on our thinking.

Download or read book Multilevel Modeling of Categorical Outcomes Using IBM SPSS written by Ronald H Heck and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-05-07 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first workbook that introduces the multilevel approach to modeling with categorical outcomes using IBM SPSS Version 20. Readers learn how to develop, estimate, and interpret multilevel models with categorical outcomes. The authors walk readers through data management, diagnostic tools, model conceptualization, and model specification issues related to single-level and multilevel models with categorical outcomes. Screen shots clearly demonstrate techniques and navigation of the program. Modeling syntax is provided in the appendix. Examples of various types of categorical outcomes demonstrate how to set up each model and interpret the output. Extended examples illustrate the logic of model development, interpretation of output, the context of the research questions, and the steps around which the analyses are structured. Readers can replicate examples in each chapter by using the corresponding data and syntax files available at www.psypress.com/9781848729568. The book opens with a review of multilevel with categorical outcomes, followed by a chapter on IBM SPSS data management techniques to facilitate working with multilevel and longitudinal data sets. Chapters 3 and 4 detail the basics of the single-level and multilevel generalized linear model for various types of categorical outcomes. These chapters review underlying concepts to assist with trouble-shooting common programming and modeling problems. Next population-average and unit-specific longitudinal models for investigating individual or organizational developmental processes are developed. Chapter 6 focuses on single- and multilevel models using multinomial and ordinal data followed by a chapter on models for count data. The book concludes with additional trouble shooting techniques and tips for expanding on the modeling techniques introduced. Ideal as a supplement for graduate level courses and/or professional workshops on multilevel, longitudinal, latent variable modeling, multivariate statistics, and/or advanced quantitative techniques taught in psychology, business, education, health, and sociology, this practical workbook also appeals to researchers in these fields. An excellent follow up to the authors’ highly successful Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling with IBM SPSS and Introduction to Multilevel Modeling Techniques, 2nd Edition, this book can also be used with any multilevel and/or longitudinal book or as a stand-alone text introducing multilevel modeling with categorical outcomes.

Download or read book Understanding and Calculating the Odds written by Catalin Barboianu and published by INFAROM Publishing. This book was released on 2006 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes. (Mathematics)

Download or read book Fooled by Randomness written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2008-10-14 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

Download or read book SPIN written by and published by . This book was released on 2007-04 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the concert stage to the dressing room, from the recording studio to the digital realm, SPIN surveys the modern musical landscape and the culture around it with authoritative reporting, provocative interviews, and a discerning critical ear. With dynamic photography, bold graphic design, and informed irreverence, the pages of SPIN pulsate with the energy of today's most innovative sounds. Whether covering what's new or what's next, SPIN is your monthly VIP pass to all that rocks.

Download or read book Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists written by Mark Muse and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-22 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists "Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists is a remarkably thorough introductory textbook for integrating psychotropic drug prescribing into psychological practices. It covers basic concepts in physiology, neurology, and pharmacology in easily understood language. Not only is this book a requirement for any psychologist seeking to gain prescriptive authority, but it is also helpful for any mental health clinician who collaborates with prescribers of any discipline. I recommend it highly." Daniel Carlat, MD, Editor in Chief of The Carlat Psychiatry Report "An important resource for any psychologist who is preparing to become a prescribing psychologist or for any psychologist who wants to be informed about the practice of medical psychology." Joseph E. Comaty, PhD, MP, coauthor of A Primer of Drug Action "Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists is an excellent treatise written by psychologists for psychologists." From the Foreword by Patrick H. DeLeon, PhD, and Jack G. Wiggins, PhD, former presidents of the American Psychological Association An essential and practical guide to integrating psychopharmacology into clinical practice Edited by medical psychologists with contributions by notable experts in their respective specialties, Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists covers key topics including: Ethics, standards of care, laws, and regulations relevant to clinical psychopharmacology Disorders of the nervous system, with particular relevance to psychopharmacology Use of comprehensive diagnostic strategies to establish differential diagnoses among possible medical and psychological symptoms Integration of pharmacotherapy with psychotherapy This essential book also provides an introduction to the qualifying exam for psychologists seeking specialty training in psychopharmacology, the Psychopharmacology Exam for Psychologists (PEP). The PEP-like practice test is available on the companion CD-ROM.

Download or read book Log Linear Models written by Ronald Christensen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-14 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines log-linear models for contingency tables. Logistic re gression and logistic discrimination are treated as special cases and gener alized linear models (in the GLIM sense) are also discussed. The book is designed to fill a niche between basic introductory books such as Fienberg (1980) and Everitt (1977) and advanced books such as Bishop, Fienberg, and Holland (1975), Haberman (1974), and Santner and Duffy (1989). lt is primarily directed at advanced Masters degree students in Statistics but it can be used at both higher and lower levels. The primary theme of the book is using previous knowledge of analysis of variance and regression to motivate and explicate the use of log-linear models. Of course, both the analogies and the distinctions between the different methods must be kept in mind. The book is written at several levels. A basic introductory course would take material from Chapters I, II (deemphasizing Section II. 4), III, Sec tions IV. 1 through IV. 5 (eliminating the material on graphical models), Section IV. lü, Chapter VII, and Chapter IX. The advanced modeling ma terial at the end of Sections VII. 1, VII. 2, and possibly the material in Section IX. 2 should be deleted in a basic introductory course. For Mas ters degree students in Statistics, all the material in Chapters I through V, VII, IX, and X should be accessible. For an applied Ph. D.

Download or read book The Odds Against Me written by John Scarne and published by . This book was released on 2020-04-03 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If he's had a touch of larceny in him, he could have been the number one card sharp of ail time. Instead the author of these fabulous memoirs, born to a mother who considered gambling "the devils tool" put his extraordinary gifts to far different purposes. He has used his incredible gambling sense, his miraculously dexterous fingers (as a magician he vied with Houdini) his brilliant mathematical mind, and his fascination with carnival and gambling life, to become America's number one authority on gambling and odds. He is the greatest living practitioner and analyst of card and slight of hand ( his artistry impressed FDR as well as underworld overlords). He has been consultant to the top casinos in Cuba, Puerto Rico, Las Vegas. He was chosen by the US Army in World War II to show GI's how not to be fleeced in crooked games. He was a front page witness in 1961 before the Senate's investigation of gambling and crime. There is nothing about the international gambling world - its personalities, stories, methods - that he doesn't know. And his own colorful and knowing personality makes his autobiography one of the most fascinating documents of our day. " Illustrated with 16 pages of photographs, 537 pages.

Download or read book Basic Probability What Every Math Student Should Know Second Edition written by Henk Tijms and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2021-07-07 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition represents an ongoing effort to make probability accessible to students in a wide range of fields such as mathematics, statistics and data science, engineering, computer science, and business analytics. The book is written for those learning about probability for the first time. Revised and updated, the book is aimed specifically at statistics and data science students who need a solid introduction to the basics of probability.While retaining its focus on basic probability, including Bayesian probability and the interface between probability and computer simulation, this edition's significant revisions are as follows:The approach followed in the book is to develop probabilistic intuition before diving into details. The best way to learn probability is by practising on a lot of problems. Many instructive problems together with problem-solving strategies are given. Answers to all problems and worked-out solutions to selected problems are also provided.Henk Tijms is the author of several textbooks in the area of applied probability. In 2008, he had received the prestigious INFORMS Expository Writing Award for his work. He is active in popularizing probability at Dutch high schools.