Download or read book Confidence Intervals for Long horizon Predictive Regressions Via Reverse Regressions written by Min Wei and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Download or read book Beyond Multiple Linear Regression written by Paul Roback and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-01-14 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beyond Multiple Linear Regression: Applied Generalized Linear Models and Multilevel Models in R is designed for undergraduate students who have successfully completed a multiple linear regression course, helping them develop an expanded modeling toolkit that includes non-normal responses and correlated structure. Even though there is no mathematical prerequisite, the authors still introduce fairly sophisticated topics such as likelihood theory, zero-inflated Poisson, and parametric bootstrapping in an intuitive and applied manner. The case studies and exercises feature real data and real research questions; thus, most of the data in the textbook comes from collaborative research conducted by the authors and their students, or from student projects. Every chapter features a variety of conceptual exercises, guided exercises, and open-ended exercises using real data. After working through this material, students will develop an expanded toolkit and a greater appreciation for the wider world of data and statistical modeling. A solutions manual for all exercises is available to qualified instructors at the book’s website at www.routledge.com, and data sets and Rmd files for all case studies and exercises are available at the authors’ GitHub repo (https://github.com/proback/BeyondMLR)
Download or read book The Econometrics of Financial Markets written by John Y. Campbell and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-28 with total page 630 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.
Download or read book Medical Risk Prediction Models written by Thomas A. Gerds and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-02-01 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Medical Risk Prediction Models: With Ties to Machine Learning is a hands-on book for clinicians, epidemiologists, and professional statisticians who need to make or evaluate a statistical prediction model based on data. The subject of the book is the patient’s individualized probability of a medical event within a given time horizon. Gerds and Kattan describe the mathematical details of making and evaluating a statistical prediction model in a highly pedagogical manner while avoiding mathematical notation. Read this book when you are in doubt about whether a Cox regression model predicts better than a random survival forest. Features: All you need to know to correctly make an online risk calculator from scratch Discrimination, calibration, and predictive performance with censored data and competing risks R-code and illustrative examples Interpretation of prediction performance via benchmarks Comparison and combination of rival modeling strategies via cross-validation Thomas A. Gerds is a professor at the Biostatistics Unit at the University of Copenhagen and is affiliated with the Danish Heart Foundation. He is the author of several R-packages on CRAN and has taught statistics courses to non-statisticians for many years. Michael W. Kattan is a highly cited author and Chair of the Department of Quantitative Health Sciences at Cleveland Clinic. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and has received two awards from the Society for Medical Decision Making: the Eugene L. Saenger Award for Distinguished Service, and the John M. Eisenberg Award for Practical Application of Medical Decision-Making Research.
Download or read book Fixed Effects Regression Methods for Longitudinal Data Using SAS written by Paul D. Allison and published by . This book was released on 2019-07-12 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fixed Effects Regression Methods for Longitudinal Data Using SAS, written by Paul Allison, is an invaluable resource for all researchers interested in adding fixed effects regression methods to their tool kit of statistical techniques. First introduced by economists, fixed effects methods are gaining widespread use throughout the social sciences. Designed to eliminate major biases from regression models with multiple observations (usually longitudinal) for each subject (usually a person), fixed effects methods essentially offer control for all stable characteristics of the subjects, even characteristics that are difficult or impossible to measure. This straightforward and thorough text shows you how to estimate fixed effects models with several SAS procedures that are appropriate for different kinds of outcome variables. The theoretical background of each model is explained, and the models are then illustrated with detailed examples using real data. The book contains thorough discussions of the following uses of SAS procedures: PROC GLM for estimating fixed effects linear models for quantitative outcomes, PROC LOGISTIC for estimating fixed effects logistic regression models, PROC PHREG for estimating fixed effects Cox regression models for repeated event data, PROC GENMOD for estimating fixed effects Poisson regression models for count data, and PROC CALIS for estimating fixed effects structural equation models. To gain the most benefit from this book, readers should be familiar with multiple linear regression, have practical experience using multiple regression on real data, and be comfortable interpreting the output from a regression analysis. An understanding of logistic regression and Poisson regression is a plus. Some experience with SAS is helpful, but not required.
Download or read book Econometric Theory and Practice written by P. C. B. Phillips and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-01-09 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essays in this book explore important theoretical and applied advances in econometrics.
Download or read book Handbook of Corporate Finance written by Bjørn Espen Eckbo and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2007-05-21 with total page 559 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Judging by the sheer number of papers reviewed in this Handbook, the empirical analysis of firms' financing and investment decisions—empirical corporate finance—has become a dominant field in financial economics. The growing interest in everything "corporate is fueled by a healthy combination of fundamental theoretical developments and recent widespread access to large transactional data bases. A less scientific—but nevertheless important—source of inspiration is a growing awareness of the important social implications of corporate behavior and governance. This Handbook takes stock of the main empirical findings to date across an unprecedented spectrum of corporate finance issues, ranging from econometric methodology, to raising capital and capital structure choice, and to managerial incentives and corporate investment behavior. The surveys are written by leading empirical researchers that remain active in their respective areas of interest. With few exceptions, the writing style makes the chapters accessible to industry practitioners. For doctoral students and seasoned academics, the surveys offer dense roadmaps into the empirical research landscape and provide suggestions for future work.*The Handbooks in Finance series offers a broad group of outstanding volumes in various areas of finance*Each individual volume in the series should present an accurate self-contained survey of a sub-field of finance*The series is international in scope with contributions from field leaders the world over
Download or read book Quantitative Credit Portfolio Management written by Arik Ben Dor and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-12-06 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An innovative approach to post-crash credit portfolio management Credit portfolio managers traditionally rely on fundamental research for decisions on issuer selection and sector rotation. Quantitative researchers tend to use more mathematical techniques for pricing models and to quantify credit risk and relative value. The information found here bridges these two approaches. In an intuitive and readable style, this book illustrates how quantitative techniques can help address specific questions facing today's credit managers and risk analysts. A targeted volume in the area of credit, this reliable resource contains some of the most recent and original research in this field, which addresses among other things important questions raised by the credit crisis of 2008-2009. Divided into two comprehensive parts, Quantitative Credit Portfolio Management offers essential insights into understanding the risks of corporate bonds—spread, liquidity, and Treasury yield curve risk—as well as managing corporate bond portfolios. Presents comprehensive coverage of everything from duration time spread and liquidity cost scores to capturing the credit spread premium Written by the number one ranked quantitative research group for four consecutive years by Institutional Investor Provides practical answers to difficult question, including: What diversification guidelines should you adopt to protect portfolios from issuer-specific risk? Are you well-advised to sell securities downgraded below investment grade? Credit portfolio management continues to evolve, but with this book as your guide, you can gain a solid understanding of how to manage complex portfolios under dynamic events.
Download or read book Lasso Regressions and Forecasting Models in Applied Stress Testing written by Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-05 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model selection and forecasting in stress tests can be facilitated using machine learning techniques. These techniques have proved robust in other fields for dealing with the curse of dimensionality, a situation often encountered in applied stress testing. Lasso regressions, in particular, are well suited for building forecasting models when the number of potential covariates is large, and the number of observations is small or roughly equal to the number of covariates. This paper presents a conceptual overview of lasso regressions, explains how they fit in applied stress tests, describes its advantages over other model selection methods, and illustrates their application by constructing forecasting models of sectoral probabilities of default in an advanced emerging market economy.
Download or read book Data Analysis for Business Economics and Policy written by Gábor Békés and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 741 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive textbook on data analysis for business, applied economics and public policy that uses case studies with real-world data.
Download or read book Machine Learning for Asset Management written by Emmanuel Jurczenko and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edited volume consists of a collection of original articles written by leading financial economists and industry experts in the area of machine learning for asset management. The chapters introduce the reader to some of the latest research developments in the area of equity, multi-asset and factor investing. Each chapter deals with new methods for return and risk forecasting, stock selection, portfolio construction, performance attribution and transaction costs modeling. This volume will be of great help to portfolio managers, asset owners and consultants, as well as academics and students who want to improve their knowledge of machine learning in asset management.
Download or read book Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions written by Julian P. T. Higgins and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2008-11-24 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Healthcare providers, consumers, researchers and policy makers are inundated with unmanageable amounts of information, including evidence from healthcare research. It has become impossible for all to have the time and resources to find, appraise and interpret this evidence and incorporate it into healthcare decisions. Cochrane Reviews respond to this challenge by identifying, appraising and synthesizing research-based evidence and presenting it in a standardized format, published in The Cochrane Library (www.thecochranelibrary.com). The Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions contains methodological guidance for the preparation and maintenance of Cochrane intervention reviews. Written in a clear and accessible format, it is the essential manual for all those preparing, maintaining and reading Cochrane reviews. Many of the principles and methods described here are appropriate for systematic reviews applied to other types of research and to systematic reviews of interventions undertaken by others. It is hoped therefore that this book will be invaluable to all those who want to understand the role of systematic reviews, critically appraise published reviews or perform reviews themselves.
Download or read book Predictive Soil Mapping with R written by Tomislav Hengl and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2018-12-20 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predictive Soil Mapping (PSM) is based on applying statistical and/or machine learning techniques to fit models for the purpose of producing spatial and/or spatiotemporal predictions of soil variables i.e. maps of soil properties and classes at different resolutions. It is a multidisciplinary field combining statistics, data science, soil science, physical geography, remote sensing, geoinformation science and a number of other sciences. Predictive Soil Mapping with R is about understanding the main concepts behind soil mapping, mastering R packages that can be used to produce high quality soil maps, and about optimizing all processes involved so that also the production costs can be reduced. The online version of the book is available at: https: //envirometrix.github.io/PredictiveSoilMapping/ Pull requests and general comments are welcome. These materials are based on technical tutorials initially developed by the ISRIC's Global Soil Information Facilities (GSIF) development team over the period 2014-2017
Download or read book Statistical Rethinking written by Richard McElreath and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.
Download or read book Predictive Density Aggregation A Model for Global GDP Growth written by Francesca G Caselli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries’ predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally, we model non-parametrically the contemporaneous interdependencies across the United States, the euro area, and China via a conditional kernel density estimation of a joint distribution. Then, we characterize the potential ampli?cation e?ects stemming from other large economies in each region—also with kernel density estimations—and the reaction of all other economies with para-metric assumptions. Importantly, each economy’s predictive density also depends on a set of observable country-speci?c factors. Finally, the use of sampling techniques allows us to aggregate individual countries’ densities into a world aggregate while preserving the non-i.i.d. nature of the global GDP growth distribution. Out-of-sample metrics con?rm the accuracy of our approach.
Download or read book Missing Data written by Paul D. Allison and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2001-08-13 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sooner or later anyone who does statistical analysis runs into problems with missing data in which information for some variables is missing for some cases. Why is this a problem? Because most statistical methods presume that every case has information on all the variables to be included in the analysis. Using numerous examples and practical tips, this book offers a nontechnical explanation of the standard methods for missing data (such as listwise or casewise deletion) as well as two newer (and, better) methods, maximum likelihood and multiple imputation. Anyone who has been relying on ad-hoc methods that are statistically inefficient or biased will find this book a welcome and accessible solution to their problems with handling missing data.
