Download or read book Capital Flows are Fickle written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-22 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Has the unprecedented financial globalization of recent years changed the behavior of capital flows across countries? Using a newly constructed database of gross and net capital flows since 1980 for a sample of nearly 150 countries, this paper finds that private capital flows are typically volatile for all countries, advanced or emerging, across all points in time. This holds true across most types of flows, including bank, portfolio debt, and equity flows. Advanced economies enjoy a greater substitutability between types of inflows, and complementarity between gross inflows and outflows, than do emerging markets, which reduces the volatility of their total net inflows despite higher volatility of the components. Capital flows also exhibit low persistence, across all economies and across most types of flows. Inflows tend to rise temporarily when global financing conditions are relatively easy. These findings suggest that fickle capital flows are an unavoidable fact of life to which policymakers across all countries need to continue to manage and adapt.
Download or read book Are Capital Flows Fickle Increasingly And Does the Answer Still Depend on Type written by Barry Eichengreen and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to conventional wisdom, capital flows are fickle. Focusing on emerging markets, this paper asks whether this conventional wisdom still holds in the contemporary world. The results show that, despite recent structural and regulatory changes, much of it survives. FDI inflows are more stable than non-FDI inflows. Within non-FDI inflows, portfolio debt and bank-intermediated flows remain the most volatile. While FDI inflows are driven mainly by pull factors, portfolio debt and equity are driven mainly by push factors; and bank-intermediated flows are driven by a combination of push and pull factors. But capital outflows from emerging markets behave differently. FDI outflows from emerging markets have grown and become significantly more volatile. There is similarly an increase in the volatility of bank-intermediated capital outflows from emerging markets. The findings underscore that outflows from emerging markets, both FDI and bank-related flows, have come to play a growing role and warrant greater attention from analysts and policy makers.
Download or read book Are Capital Flows Fickle Increasingly And Does the Answer Still Depend on Type written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Reach for Yield and Fickle Capital Flows written by Ricardo J. Caballero and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Caballero and Simsek (2018), we develop a model of fickle capital flows and show that, when countries are similar, international flows create global liquidity and mitigate crises despite their fickleness. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric situation of Emerging Markets (EM) exchanging flows with Developed Markets (DM) that feature lower returns but less frequent crises. Relatively high DM returns help to mitigate EM crises, by reducing fickle inflows, and by providing greater liquidity. The situation dramatically changes as the DM returns fall, as this increases the fickle inflows driven by reach for yield and exacerbates EM crises.
Download or read book A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment written by Ricardo J. Caballero and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Gross capital flows are very large and highly cyclical. They are a central aspect of global liquidity creation and destruction. They also exhibit rich internal dynamics that shape fluctuations in domestic liquidity, such as the fickleness of foreign capital inflows and the retrenchment of domestic capital outflows during crises. In this paper we provide a model that builds on these observations to address some of the main questions and concerns in the capital flows literature. Within this model, we find that for symmetric economies, the liquidity provision aspect of capital flows vastly outweighs their fickleness cost, so that taxing capital flows, while could prove useful for a country in isolation, backfires as a global equilibrium outcome. However, if the system is heterogeneous and includes economies with abundant (DM) and with limited (EM) natural domestic liquidity, there can be scenarios when global liquidity uncertainty is high and EM's reach for safety can destabilize DMs, as well as risk-on scenarios in which DM's reach for yield can destabilize EMs
Download or read book The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets written by Maria Sole Pagliari and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-07 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.
Download or read book Capital Flows are Fickle written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Has the unprecedented financial globalization of recent years changed the behavior of capital flows across countries? Using a newly constructed database of gross and net capital flows since 1980 for a sample of nearly 150 countries, this paper finds that private capital flows are typically volatile for all countries, advanced or emerging, across all points in time. This holds true across most types of flows, including bank, portfolio debt, and equity flows. Advanced economies enjoy a greater substitutability between types of inflows, and complementarity between gross inflows and outflows, than do emerging markets, which reduces the volatility of their total net inflows despite higher volatility of the components. Capital flows also exhibit low persistence, across all economies and across most types of flows. Inflows tend to rise temporarily when global financing conditions are relatively easy. These findings suggest that fickle capital flows are an unavoidable fact of life to which policymakers across all countries need to continue to manage and adapt.
Download or read book Capital Flows at Risk Taming the Ebbs and Flows written by Mr.R. G Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
Download or read book Managing Capital Flows written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.
Download or read book How Important is the Global Financial Cycle Evidence from Capital Flows written by Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-01 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use two methods to represent it: directly observable variables in center economies often linked to it, such as the VIX; and indirect manifestations, proxied by common dynamic factors extracted from actual capital flows. Our evidence seems mostly inconsistent with a significant and conspicuous GFCy; both methods combined rarely explain more than a quarter of the variation in capital flows. Succinctly, most variation in capital flows does not seem to be the result of common shocks nor stem from observables in a central country like the United States.
Download or read book The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows written by Mr.Eswar Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-04-01 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China's inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China's capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the "deeper" causes underlying China's approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China's international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI.
Download or read book G7 Current Account Imbalances written by Richard H. Clarida and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current account deficit of the United States is more than six percent of its gross domestic product—an all-time high. And the rest of the world, including other G7 countries such as Japan and Germany, must collectively run current account surpluses to finance this deficit. How long can such unevenness between imports and exports be sustained, and what form might their eventual reconciliation take? Putting forth scenarios ranging from a gradual correction to a crash landing for the dollar, G7 Current Account Imbalances brings together economists from around the globe to consider the origins, status, and future of those disparities. An esteemed group of collaborators here examines the role of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the history of previous episodes of current account adjustments, and the possibility of the Euro surpassing the dollar as the leading international reserve currency. Though there are areas of broad agreement—that the imbalances will ultimately decline and that currency revaluations will be part of the solution—many areas of contention remain regarding both the dangers of imbalances and the possible forms of adjustment. This volume will be of tremendous value to economists, politicians, and business leaders alike as they look to the future of the G7 economies.
Download or read book International Capital Flows written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.
Download or read book Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy written by Marcel Fratzscher and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The empirical analysis of the paper suggests that an FX policy objective and concerns about an overheating of the domestic economy have been the two main motives for the (re-)introduction and persistence of capital controls over the past decade. Capital controls are strongly associated with countries having significantly undervalued exchange rates. Capital controls also appear to be less motivated by worries about financial market volatility or fickle capital flows per se, but rather by concerns about capital inflows triggering an overheating of the economy--in the form of high credit growth, rising inflation and output volatility. Moreover, countries with a high level of capital controls, and those actively implementing controls, tend to be those that have fixed exchange rate regimes, a non-IT monetary policy regime and shallow financial markets. This evidence is consistent with capital controls being used, at least in part, to compensate for the absence of autonomous macroeconomic and prudential policies and effective adjustment mechanisms for dealing with capital flows.
Download or read book Portfolio Inflows Eclipsing Banking Inflows Alternative Facts written by Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-02-16 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Superficial examination of aggregate gross cross-border capital inflow data suggests that there was no substitution between portfolio inflows and bank loans in recent years. However, our novel analysis of disaggregate inflows (both by types of instrument and borrower) shows interesting heterogeneity. There has been substitution of bank loans for portfolio debt securities not only in the case of corporate and sovereign borrowers in advanced countries, but also sovereign borrowers in emerging countries. In the case of corporate borrowers in emerging markets, the relationship corresponds to complementarity across types of gross capital inflows, especially during periods of positive capital gross inflows after the global financial crisis. A large part of these patterns does not seem to be driven by a common phenomenon across countries associated with the global financial cycle, but rather by country-specific factors.
Download or read book Financial Globalization and Inequality Capital Flows as a Two Edged Sword written by Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-01-08 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We review the debate on the association of financial globalization with inequality. We show that the within-country distributional impact of capital account liberalization is context specific and that different types of flows have different distributional effects. Their overall impact depends on the composition of capital flows, their interaction, and on broader economic and institutional conditions. A comprehensive set of policies – macroeconomic, financial and labor- and product-market specific – is important for facilitating wider sharing of the benefits of financial globalization.
Download or read book Rethinking Capital Flows for Emerging East Asia written by Stephen Grenville and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Since the 1980s, emerging countries have been urged to welcome foreign capital inflows. The result has often been a pattern of surges, where excessive inflows were followed by damaging "sudden stops" and reversals. This was dramatically evident in the Asian crisis of 1997-1998. Since that crisis, the emerging countries of East Asia have typically run current account surpluses and have accumulated substantial foreign exchange reserves. This has kept them largely protected from the impact of volatile capital flows, but this strategy is neither sustainable nor optimal. What is needed is a strategy that makes use of the potential benefits of capital "flowing downhil" (that would require these countries to run current account deficits) while at the same time protecting them from both the excessive inflows and the reversals. This strategy needs to take account not only of the fickle nature of the capital flows, but the structurally-higher profitability which is characteristic of emerging countries, which motivates the excessive inflows. This strategy would require more active management of both exchange rates and capital flows than has been the accepted "best practice". This requires a substantial shift in the current policy mindset. The International Monetary Fund has shifted some distance on this issue, but has further to go." - - Abstarct.