Download or read book Capacity Constraints Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism written by Mr.Peter B. Clark and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-08 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a small model of the output-inflation process in the United States in order to examine the implications of alternative monetary policy rules. In particular, two types of policy rules are considered; a myopic rule where interest rates respond contemporaneously to output and inflation and a forward-looking policy rule that exploits information about the nature of transmission mechanism in the setting of interest rates. The model has two key features. First, there are significant lags between interest rates and aggregate demand conditions. Second, the model is based on an asymmetric model of inflation where positive deviations of aggregate demand from potential are more inflationary than negative deviations are disinflationary. As a consequence of this asymmetry, a policymaker that follows a myopic policy rule and allows the economy to overheat periodically will be forced to impose large recessions on the economy to keep inflation under control. The paper shows that the estimated degree of asymmetry implies that myopic policies can result in significant permanent losses in output. By contrast, policymakers that follow a forward-looking policy rule that avoids overheating will not only reduce the variance of output but also raise the mean level of output.
Download or read book Capacity Constraints Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism written by Mr.Peter B. Clark and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-08-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a small model of the output-inflation process in the United States in order to examine the implications of alternative monetary policy rules. In particular, two types of policy rules are considered; a myopic rule where interest rates respond contemporaneously to output and inflation and a forward-looking policy rule that exploits information about the nature of transmission mechanism in the setting of interest rates. The model has two key features. First, there are significant lags between interest rates and aggregate demand conditions. Second, the model is based on an asymmetric model of inflation where positive deviations of aggregate demand from potential are more inflationary than negative deviations are disinflationary. As a consequence of this asymmetry, a policymaker that follows a myopic policy rule and allows the economy to overheat periodically will be forced to impose large recessions on the economy to keep inflation under control. The paper shows that the estimated degree of asymmetry implies that myopic policies can result in significant permanent losses in output. By contrast, policymakers that follow a forward-looking policy rule that avoids overheating will not only reduce the variance of output but also raise the mean level of output.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Morocco A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls written by Mokhtar Benlamine and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-02-14 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.
Download or read book Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U S Economy written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Download or read book Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve Some Evidence for Canada the United Kingdom and the United States written by Mr.Douglas Laxton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-10-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal statistical footing by estimating model-consistent measures of the NAIRU. After imposing plausible restrictions on the variability in the NAIRU we find that the nonlinear model fits the data best. The implications for the macroeconomic policy debate is that policymakers that are unsuccessful in stabilizing the business cycle will induce a higher natural rate of unemployment.
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Unemployment written by Willi Semmler and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together papers presented at a conference in honour of the 1981 Nobel Prize Winner for Economic Science, the late James Tobin. Among the contributors are Olivier Blanchard, Edmund Phelps, Charles Goodhart and Marco Buti. One of the main aims of the conference was to discuss what potential role monetary policy has on economic activity and unemployment reduction in three key currency zones - the United States, European Union and Japan.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers Volume 42 No 4 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-01-01 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes early contributions of Staff Papers to international economics. The paper highlights that Staff Papers has, since its inception in 1950, been an important vehicle for the dissemination of research done by the IMF staff. This paper discusses three areas in which articles published in Staff Papers up until the 1970s made major contributions to the literature in international economics. The areas covered are: the absorption approach and the monetary theory of the balance of payments; the Mundell-Fleming model; and foreign trade modeling.
Download or read book Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-04 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naïve univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.
Download or read book Phillips Curves Phillips Lines and the Unemplyment Costs of Overheating written by Mr.Peter B. Clark and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-02-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most empirical work on the U.S. Phillips curve has had a strong tendency to impose global linearity on the data. The basic objective of this paper is to reconsider the issue of nonlinearity and to underscore its importance for policymaking. After briefly reviewing the history of the Phillips curve and the basis for convexity, we derive it explicitly using standard models of wage and price determination. We provide some empirical estimates of Phillips curves and Phillips lines for the United States and use some illustrative simulations to contrast the policy implications of the two models.
Download or read book Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community written by Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-06 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.
Download or read book Multimod Mark III written by Mr.Hamid Faruqee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-05-21 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study describes the Mark III version of MULTIMOD, the IMF's multi region macroeconomic model. Mark III version of MULTIMOD differs from its predecessor in several important respects. New features include a core steady-state analogue model, a new model of teh inflation-unemployment nexus, and extended non-Ricardian specification of consumption-saving behavior, and improved specifications and estimates of investment behavior and international trade equations. In addition, the introduction of a new solution algorithm has greatly increased the robustness, speed of convergence, and accuracy of the simulations.
Download or read book EMU One Year on written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2000-03-29 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study assesses economic developments and policies during the inaugural year of Europe's single currency regime. It analyses the economic performance and prospects of the euro area as a whole, and highlights to what extent aggregate trends are shaped by convergence or divergence.
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2019 Issue 2 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2019-12-10 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries.
Download or read book United Kingdom written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-08-28 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper on the United Kingdom describes the issues related to the choice between different types of inflation targeting frameworks and the features of the Bank of England's framework. The paper focuses the trade-off between program costs, efficiency, and concerns about equity such as reduced poverty and improved income distribution. The study analyzes the main analytical framework to assess the gains and losses associated with joining the European Economic and Monetary Union, and also surveys a range of indicators of wage flexibility.
Download or read book Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-21 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
Download or read book IMF Working Paper written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 830 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
