Download or read book Bubble Value at Risk written by Max C. Y. Wong and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces a powerful new approach to financial risk modeling with proven strategies for its real-world applications The 2008 credit crisis did much to debunk the much touted powers of Value at Risk (VaR) as a risk metric. Unlike most authors on VaR who focus on what it can do, in this book the author looks at what it cannot. In clear, accessible prose, finance practitioners, Max Wong, describes the VaR measure and what it was meant to do, then explores its various failures in the real world of crisis risk management. More importantly, he lays out a revolutionary new method of measuring risks, Bubble Value at Risk, that is countercyclical and offers a well-tested buffer against market crashes. Describes Bubble VaR, a more macro-prudential risk measure proven to avoid the limitations of VaR and by providing a more accurate risk exposure estimation over market cycles Makes a strong case that analysts and risk managers need to unlearn our existing "science" of risk measurement and discover more robust approaches to calculating risk capital Illustrates every key concept or formula with an abundance of practical, numerical examples, most of them provided in interactive Excel spreadsheets Features numerous real-world applications, throughout, based on the author’s firsthand experience as a veteran financial risk analyst

Download or read book Boom and Bust written by William Quinn and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-08-06 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.

Download or read book Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes Second Edition written by Harold L. Vogel and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-16 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.

Download or read book A Financial History of the United States written by Jerry W Markham and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-17 with total page 839 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new reference by the author of the critically acclaimed A Financial History of the United States covers the aftermath of the Enron-era scandals and the extraordinary financial developments during the period

Download or read book The Bubble Economy written by Robert U. Ayres and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-05-30 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why the global economy has become increasingly unstable, and how financial “de-carbonization” could break the pattern of bubble-driven wealth destruction. The global economy has become increasingly, perhaps chronically, unstable. Since 2008, we have heard about the housing bubble, subprime mortgages, banks “too big to fail,” financial regulation (or the lack of it), and the European debt crisis. Wall Street has discovered that it is more profitable to make money from other people's money than by investing in the real economy, which has limited access to capital—resulting in slow growth and rising inequality. What we haven't heard much about is the role of natural resources—energy in particular—as drivers of economic growth, or the connection of “global warming” to the economic crisis. In The Bubble Economy, Robert Ayres—an economist and physicist—connects economic instability to the economics of energy. Ayres describes, among other things, the roots of our bubble economy (including the divergent influences of Senator Carter Glass—of the Glass-Steagall Law—and Ayn Rand); the role of energy in the economy, from the “oil shocks” of 1971 and 1981 through the Iraq wars; the early history of bubbles and busts; the end of Glass-Steagall; climate change; and the failures of austerity. Finally, Ayres offers a new approach to trigger economic growth. The rising price of fossil fuels (notwithstanding “fracking”) suggests that renewable energy will become increasingly profitable. Ayres argues that government should redirect private savings and global finance away from home ownership and toward “de-carbonization”—investment in renewables and efficiency. Large-scale investment in sustainability will achieve a trifecta: lowering greenhouse gas emissions, stimulating innovation-based economic growth and employment, and offering long-term investment opportunities that do not depend on risky gambling strategies with derivatives.

Download or read book Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets written by Stefan Palan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-10-03 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.

Download or read book The VAR Implementation Handbook written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2009-03-15 with total page 562 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: [flap] For investors, risk is about the odds of losing money, and Value at Risk (VaR) is grounded in that common-sense fact. VAR modeling answers, “What is my worst-case scenario?” and “How much could I lose in a really bad month?” However, there has not been an effective guidebook available to help investors and financial managers make their own VaR calculations--until now. The VaR Implementation Handbook is a hands-on road map for professionals who have a solid background in VaR but need the critical strategies, models, and insights to apply their knowledge in the real world. Heralded as “the new science of risk management,” VaR has emerged as the dominant methodology used by financial institutions and corporate treasuries worldwide for estimating precisely how much money is at risk each day in the financial markets. The VaR Implementation Handbook picks up where other books on the subject leave off and demonstrates how, with proper implementation, VaR can be a valuable tool for assessing risk in a variety of areas-from equity to structured and operational products. This complete guide thoroughly covers the three major areas of VaR implementation--measuring, modeling risk, and managing--in three convenient sections. Savvy professionals will keep this handbook at their fingertips for its: Reliable advice from 40 recognized experts working in universities and financial institutions around the world Effective methods and measures to ensure that implemented VaR models maintain optimal performance Up-to-date coverage on newly exposed areas of volatility, including derivatives Real-world prosperity requires making informed financial decisions. The VaR Implementation Handbook is a step-by-step playbook to getting the most out of VaR modeling so you can successfully manage financial risk.

Download or read book Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets Volume 1 written by E. Porras and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-29 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.

Download or read book VC written by Tom Nicholas and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2019-07-09 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “An incisive history of the venture-capital industry.” —New Yorker “An excellent and original economic history of venture capital.” —Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution “A detailed, fact-filled account of America’s most celebrated moneymen.” —New Republic “Extremely interesting, readable, and informative...Tom Nicholas tells you most everything you ever wanted to know about the history of venture capital, from the financing of the whaling industry to the present multibillion-dollar venture funds.” —Arthur Rock “In principle, venture capital is where the ordinarily conservative, cynical domain of big money touches dreamy, long-shot enterprise. In practice, it has become the distinguishing big-business engine of our time...[A] first-rate history.” —New Yorker VC tells the riveting story of how the venture capital industry arose from America’s longstanding identification with entrepreneurship and risk-taking. Whether the venture is a whaling voyage setting sail from New Bedford or the latest Silicon Valley startup, VC is a state of mind as much as a way of doing business, exemplified by an appetite for seeking extreme financial rewards, a tolerance for failure and experimentation, and a faith in the promise of innovation to generate new wealth. Tom Nicholas’s authoritative history takes us on a roller coaster of entrepreneurial successes and setbacks. It describes how iconic firms like Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia invested in Genentech and Apple even as it tells the larger story of VC’s birth and evolution, revealing along the way why venture capital is such a quintessentially American institution—one that has proven difficult to recreate elsewhere.

Download or read book Famous First Bubbles written by Peter M. Garber and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001-08-24 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.

Download or read book Principles of Salmonid Culture written by W. Pennell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1996-10-11 with total page 1071 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As salmonids have been reared for more than a century in many countries, one might expect that principles are well established and provide a solid foundation for salmonid aquaculture. Indeed, some of the methods used today in salmonid rearing are nearly identical to those employed one hundred years ago. Areas of salmonid research today include nutrition, smolt and stress physiology, genetics and biotechnology.The purpose of this book is to provide a useful synthesis of the biology and culture of salmonid fishes. The important practices in salmonid culture as well as the theory behind them is described. This volume will be of interest to students, researchers, fisheries biologists and managers as well as practising aquaculturists.

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes written by Harold L. Vogel and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-12-14 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the thousands of articles and the millions of times that the word 'bubble' has been used in the business press, there still does not appear to be a cohesive theory or persuasive empirical approach with which to study 'bubble' and 'crash' conditions. This book presents a plausible and accessible descriptive theory and empirical approach to the analysis of such financial market conditions. It advances such a framework through application of standard econometric methods to its central idea, which is that financial bubbles reflect urgent short side rationed demand. From this basic idea, an elasticity of variance concept is developed. It is further shown that a behavioral risk premium can probably be measured and related to the standard equity risk premium models in a way that is consistent with conventional theory.

Download or read book The Aftershock Investor written by David Wiedemer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-08-31 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advice on protection and profits in the short and long term future from the experts who accurately predicted the financial crisis of 2008, and who now have more detailed information about what is yet to come From the authors who accurately predicted the domino fall of the conjoined real estate, stock, and private debt bubbles that led to the financial crisis of 2008 comes the definitive guide to protection and profit in 2012 and beyond. Based on the authors' unmatched track record of precision predictions in their three landmark books, America's Bubble Economy (Wiley, 2006), Aftershock (Wiley, 2009), and Aftershock, Second Edition (Wiley, 2011), their next book offers what readers have been clamoring for: A detailed guide to how to put Aftershock in action, with 14 new chapters on what investors need to know to survive and thrive in the next global money meltdown. The Aftershock Investor shows readers: Why recent actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve will eventually damage the dollar and hurt investors worldwide How future rising inflation and interest rates will harm your specific investments, and what to do about it What's next for stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and other assets Detailed investment advice about real estate, retirement, annuities, life insurance, jobs, and much more How to buy and own gold and silver before, during, and after the coming Aftershock How to profit rather than lose when so many asset bubbles collapse around the world Those who heeded the authors' warnings last time were able to successfully ride out the financial crisis of 2008 and even cash in on the years that followed. Now The Aftershock Investor offers readers a second chance at protection and profit in the next financial crisis ahead.

Download or read book The Little Book of Big Bubbles written by Edmund Simms and published by . This book was released on 2021-06-23 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Little Book of Big Bubbles - A History of Financial Greed and Collective Insanity. Whether it's tulips, real estate, or even Beanie Babies: asset bubbles are thought to inflate and pop without rhyme or reason. This is not true. Humans are greedy. We are susceptible to being deluded by our own collective insanity. We ignore the lessons of the past and make the same mistakes over and over. What are financial bubbles, and how do we navigate them? In this book, we explore ten of history's most significant bubbles and identify what they have in common to build a framework for recognising future ones. Chapters An Introduction The Roman Land Collapse (33 AD) The Dutch Tulipe Mania (1637) The South Sea Company (1720) The Mississippi Company (1720) US Land Panics (1819, 1837 and 1857) The Roaring '20s (1921-1929) The Japanese Asset Bubble (1986-1991) Beanie Babies (1995-1999) The Tech Bubble (1995-2000) The US Housing bubble (2005-2008) The Lessons of History The Author - Edmund Simms Value investor. Worked in hedge funds, mutual funds, venture capital, and as co-founder to three startups. No managing a private investment partnership and an equity research publication. Made in Australia but residing in London.

Download or read book Why the Bubble Burst written by Lawrance Lee Evans and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2003-01-01 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing a comprehensive look at the most dramatic run-up in equity values in US history, this volume takes the reader from theory to empirics, illustrating why we need to go beyond the efficient markets hypothesis and the theory of domestic irrational exuberance to fully unpack the unprecedented phenomenon, why the market was destined for a major decline and why the fallout will be severe and protracted.

Download or read book FUZZY OPTIMIZATION FOR BUSINESS ANALYTICS AND DATA SCIENCE written by Dr. Parveen Chauhan and published by Xoffencerpublication. This book was released on 2023-08-21 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concept of fuzzy logic refers to a specific subset of many-valued logic. In this line of reasoning, the truth value of a variable can be any real integer, including any fraction that is between 0 and 1. This applies to all fractions as well. It achieves this by regulating the concept of partial truth, in which the truth value may switch between being entirely true and entirely false at any given moment. This objective may be accomplished by making use of the tool for managing concepts. In contrast, the truth values of variables in Boolean logic can never be anything other than the integer values 0 or 1, as there are only two alternatives that even have a remote chance of occurring. This is because there are only two options that are even remotely imaginable. It is common practice to consider the fuzzy set theory, which was created in 1965 by the Iranian-Azerbaijani mathematician Lotfi Zadeh, to be the basis for fuzzy logic. However, since the 1920s, scholars have been investigating fuzzy logic, which was also known as infinite-valued logic at the time. Most notably, Lukasiewicz and Tarski were the researchers that began this line of inquiry. This particular investigation didn't wrap up until the 1960s, but it began in the 1920s. The idea of fuzzy logic is based on the fact that decision-makers frequently rely on hazy and non-numerical information. In other words, this is the origin of fuzzy logic. The mathematical methods of fuzzy modeling and fuzzy set creation, both of which are used to describe ambiguous and imprecise information, are where the name "fuzzy" first appeared. These models are capable of recognizing, representing, manipulating, understanding, and using facts and information that are fundamentally hazy and ambiguous in nature. Fuzzy logic has been effectively applied in a variety of applications, from control theory to artificial intelligence. Conventional patterns of thinking can only ever lead to conclusions that are either correct or incorrect. However, there are other statements that may elicit a range of responses, such as the answers you could get if you asked a group of individuals to name a color. One that invites people to name a meal is another 1 | P a ge illustration of this kind of proposal. In situations like this, it is the application of reasoning based on incomplete or inaccurate information that leads to the finding of the truth. This argument entails plotting the sampled responses on a spectrum. Although degrees of truth and probabilities both range from 0 to 1, fuzzy logic employs degrees of truth as a mathematical model of ambiguity whereas probability is a mathematical model of ignorance, despite the fact that they may initially appear to be the same. Although they could at first glance appear to be the same because both probability and degrees of truth range from 0 to 1, this is only because they do.