Download or read book Bubble Value at Risk written by Max C. Y. Wong and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces a powerful new approach to financial risk modeling with proven strategies for its real-world applications The 2008 credit crisis did much to debunk the much touted powers of Value at Risk (VaR) as a risk metric. Unlike most authors on VaR who focus on what it can do, in this book the author looks at what it cannot. In clear, accessible prose, finance practitioners, Max Wong, describes the VaR measure and what it was meant to do, then explores its various failures in the real world of crisis risk management. More importantly, he lays out a revolutionary new method of measuring risks, Bubble Value at Risk, that is countercyclical and offers a well-tested buffer against market crashes. Describes Bubble VaR, a more macro-prudential risk measure proven to avoid the limitations of VaR and by providing a more accurate risk exposure estimation over market cycles Makes a strong case that analysts and risk managers need to unlearn our existing "science" of risk measurement and discover more robust approaches to calculating risk capital Illustrates every key concept or formula with an abundance of practical, numerical examples, most of them provided in interactive Excel spreadsheets Features numerous real-world applications, throughout, based on the author’s firsthand experience as a veteran financial risk analyst

Download or read book Bubble Value at Risk Background written by Max C. Y. Wong and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces a powerful new approach to financial risk modeling with proven strategies for its real-world applications The 2008 credit crisis did much to debunk the much touted powers of Value at Risk (VaR) as a risk metric. Unlike most authors on VaR who focus on what it can do, in this book the author looks at what it cannot. In clear, accessible prose, finance practitioners, Max Wong, describes the VaR measure and what it was meant to do, then explores its various failures in the real world of crisis risk management. More importantly, he lays out a revolutionary new method of measuring risks.

Download or read book Bubble Value at Risk written by Max C. Y. Wong and published by Immanuel Consulting Pte. Limited. This book was released on 2011 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most risk management books introduce Value at Risk (VaR) by focusing on what it can do and its statistical measurements. The credit crisis in 2008 was a tidal wave that debunked this well-established risk metric. In this book, the author introduces VaR by looking at its failures instead and explores possible alternatives for effective crisis risk management, including a new method of measuring risks called bubble value at risk that is countercyclical and can potentially buffer against market crashes.The frequentist-statistics-based VaR is predictive during normal circumstances but often fails patently during rare crisis episodes. In reality, crisis periods span only a tiny portion of financial market history. By relying on VaR for crisis risk management, we are using a tried and tested tool for the wrong occasion-we mistake the tree for the forest. The book argues that we need to unlearn our existing "science" of risk measurement and discover more robust ways to manage risks and to calculate risk capital.The book illustrates virtually every key concept or formula with a practical, numerical example, many of which are contained in interactive Excel spreadsheets. All worked out examples/ case studies spreadsheets are downloadable from the companion website: www.bubble-value-at-risk.com

Download or read book Bubble Value at Risk written by Max Chan Yue Wong and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book An Introduction to Value at Risk written by Moorad Choudhry and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The value-at-risk measurement methodology is a widely-used tool in financial market risk management. The fifth edition of Professor Moorad Choudhry’s benchmark reference text An Introduction to Value-at-Risk offers an accessible and reader-friendly look at the concept of VaR and its different estimation methods, and is aimed specifically at newcomers to the market or those unfamiliar with modern risk management practices. The author capitalises on his experience in the financial markets to present this concise yet in-depth coverage of VaR, set in the context of risk management as a whole. Topics covered include: Defining value-at-risk Variance-covariance methodology Portfolio VaR Credit risk and credit VaR Stressed VaR Critique and VaR during crisis Topics are illustrated with Bloomberg screens, worked examples and exercises. Related issues such as statistics, volatility and correlation are also introduced as necessary background for students and practitioners. This is essential reading for all those who require an introduction to financial market risk management and risk measurement techniques. Foreword by Carol Alexander, Professor of Finance, University of Sussex.

Download or read book Risk Measures and the Impact of Asset Price Bubbles written by Robert A. Jarrow and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the impact of asset price bubbles on a firm's standard risk measures, including value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Comparing a bubble and non-bubble economy, it is shown that asset price bubbles cause (i) a firm's VaR and CVaR to decline, but (ii) increase its expected daily and maximum daily losses. This decline in the standard risk measures is due to the increased right skew in a firm value's distribution due to bubble expansion. The increase in the expected daily losses is due to bubble bursting. This implies that the standard risk measures are not adequate for equity capital determination in the present of asset price bubbles, and that scenario analysis which include bursting bubbles are essential for the proper determination of equity capital.

Download or read book The Great Housing Bubble written by Lawrence Roberts and published by Monterey Cypress LLC. This book was released on 2008 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed analysis of the psychological and mechanical causes of the biggest rally, and subsequent fall, of housing prices ever recorded. Examines the causes of the breathtaking rise in prices and the catastrophic fall that ensued to answer the question on every homeowner's mind: "Why did house prices fall?"--Page 4 of cover

Download or read book Security in the Cyber Age written by Derek S. Reveron and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2023-11-16 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cyberspace is essential for socializing, learning, shopping, and just about everything in modern life. Yet, there is also a dark side to cyberspace: sub-national, transnational, and international actors are challenging the ability of sovereign governments to provide a secure environment for their citizens. Criminal groups hold businesses and local governments hostage through ransomware, foreign intelligence services steal intellectual property and conduct influence operations, governments attempt to rewrite Internet protocols to facilitate censorship, and militaries prepare to use cyberspace operations in wars. Security in the Cyber Age breaks-down how cyberspace works, analyzes how state and non-state actors exploit vulnerabilities in cyberspace, and provides ways to improve cybersecurity. Written by a computer scientist and national security scholar-practitioner, the book offers technological, policy, and ethical ways to protect cyberspace. Its interdisciplinary approach and engaging style make the book accessible to the lay audience as well as computer science and political science students.

Download or read book A Wealth of Common Sense written by Ben Carlson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-06-22 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A simple guide to a smarter strategy for the individual investor A Wealth of Common Sense sheds a refreshing light on investing, and shows you how a simplicity-based framework can lead to better investment decisions. The financial market is a complex system, but that doesn't mean it requires a complex strategy; in fact, this false premise is the driving force behind many investors' market "mistakes." Information is important, but understanding and perspective are the keys to better decision-making. This book describes the proper way to view the markets and your portfolio, and show you the simple strategies that make investing more profitable, less confusing, and less time-consuming. Without the burden of short-term performance benchmarks, individual investors have the advantage of focusing on the long view, and the freedom to construct the kind of portfolio that will serve their investment goals best. This book proves how complex strategies essentially waste these advantages, and provides an alternative game plan for those ready to simplify. Complexity is often used as a mechanism for talking investors into unnecessary purchases, when all most need is a deeper understanding of conventional options. This book explains which issues you actually should pay attention to, and which ones are simply used for an illusion of intelligence and control. Keep up with—or beat—professional money managers Exploit stock market volatility to your utmost advantage Learn where advisors and consultants fit into smart strategy Build a portfolio that makes sense for your particular situation You don't have to outsmart the market if you can simply outperform it. Cut through the confusion and noise and focus on what actually matters. A Wealth of Common Sense clears the air, and gives you the insight you need to become a smarter, more successful investor.

Download or read book Boom and Bust written by William Quinn and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-08-06 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.

Download or read book The Principles of Banking written by Moorad Choudhry and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-06-13 with total page 912 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ultimate guide for bank management: how to survive and thrive throughout the business cycle An essential guide for bankers and students of finance everywhere, The Principles of Banking reiterates that the primary requirement of banking—sound capital and liquidity risk management—had been forgotten in the years prior to the financial crash. Serving as a policy guide for market practitioners and regulators at all levels, the book explains the keys to success that bankers need to follow during good times in order to be prepared for the bad, providing in-depth guidance and technical analysis of exactly what constitutes good banking practice. Accessible to professionals and students alike, The Principles of Banking covers issues of practical importance to bank practitioners, including asset-liability management, liquidity risk, internal transfer pricing, capital management, stress testing, and more. With an emphasis on viewing business cycles as patterns of stable and stressful market behavior, and rich with worked examples illustrating the key principles of bank asset-liability management, the book is an essential policy guide for today and tomorrow. It also offers readers access to an accompanying website holding policy templates and teaching aids. Illustrates how unsound banking practices that were evident in previous bank crashes were repeated during the creation of the 2007-2008 financial market crisis Provides a template that can be used to create a sound liquidity and asset-liability management framework at any bank An essential resource for the international banking community as it seeks to re-establish its credibility, as well as for students of finance Explains the original principles of banking, including sound lending policy and liquidity management, and why these need to be restated in order to avoid another bank crisis at the time of the next economic recession Covers topics of particular importance to students and academia, many of which are marginally—if ever—addressed in current text books on finance Offers readers access to a companion website featuring invaluable learning and teaching aids Written by a banking practitioner with extensive professional and teaching experience in the field, The Principles of Banking explains exactly how to get back to basics in risk management in the banking community, essential if we are to maintain a sustainable banking industry. “engaging and interesting and, more importantly, easily understood, allowing a clear picture to emerge of how the principle or concept under discussion is to be applied in the real world.” - Graeme Wolvaardt, Head of Market & Liquidity Risk Control, Europe Arab Bank Plc

Download or read book Essays on Value at Risk and Asset Price Bubbles written by Wai Man Kwong and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Investors optimal response to stock price bubbles written by Maximilian Wegener and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-04-08 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 8.0, Maastricht University, language: English, abstract: According to the efficient market hypothesis there should not be an asset overvaluation. Nevertheless, bubbles appear from time to time in the real world. In a financial bubble, the price of a security deviates grossly from its fundamental intrinsic value (Watanabe, Takayasu & Takayasu, 2007). Fundamentals or fundamental value refer to economic variables such as discount rates or future cash flows (Siegel, 2003). Depending on the valuation technique one can define an asset’s intrinsic or fundamental value, based on economic variables and assumed growth. A financial bubble is defined as a price run-up, where an initial price rise generates positive expectations of higher future prices, which attracts new buyers that are rather interested in reaping profits by trading the assets than using its earnings capacity (Siegel, 2003). There is a long history of bubbles such as the 1720 South Sea bubble, 1929 the Great Crash, in the mid-1970s the REIT bubble, in 1987 the housing crash, in 1991 the banking crisis, in 2002 the NASDAQ technology bubble and just recently the housing bubble in the United States, just to name a few. This capstone assignment deals with the question of how investors should act in the case of asset overvaluation in financial markets. In particular, it tries to answer how investors should behave. The central question asks whether investors should step aside and wait until the bubble bursts, whether they should ride the bubble or trade against it. Of course, there is support for all three, albeit contradicting theories. The different trading and investment strategies are reviewed, thereby touching upon various asset bubbles, financial concepts and empirical evidence in the academia. Moreover, it is elaborated on positive feedback trading and rational speculations, as well as behavioral finance concepts such as herding or overconfidence. The remainder of this paper describes different concepts outlined in the empirical literature, starting with asset overvaluation, followed by the efficient market hypothesis and the random walk phenomenon. The role of arbitrage traders is explored, and their impact on efficient markets and bubbles discussed. A review of behavioral traits during bubbles and the impact of human behavior on asset prices is included. Further, there is an examination of mutual fund strategies and their success in exploiting profit opportunities during bubbles. Finally, it is summarized which arguments support each of the viewpoints.

Download or read book The Anti Bubbles written by Diego Parrilla and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2017-08-16 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Anti-Bubbles is a contrarian framework that challenges the status quo and complacency of Global Markets towards the false belief/misconception that central banks and governments are infallible and in full control. A forward-looking analysis of the opportunities, risks, and unintended consequences associated with testing the limits of monetary policy, testing the limits of credit markets, and testing the limits of fiat currencies. This book presents both sides of the story, including Larry Summer’s “prudent imprudence for fiscal expansion”, George Soros’ “reflexivity theory applied to monetary policy”, Mohamed El-Erian ́s “T-juction and diplomatic neutrality”, along the “Lehman Squared” and “Gold ́s Perfect Storm” investment theses, and coins innovative ideas such as “anti-bubbles”, “the acronyms”, or “monetary supercycle”, which join a series of innovative concepts such as “The Flattening of the Energy World”, “The Energy Broadband”, or “The Battle for Supply”, from Diego ́s first book.

Download or read book Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets written by Stefan Palan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-10-03 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.

Download or read book Risk Management and Value written by Mondher Bellalah and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 645 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive discussion of the issues related to risk, volatility, value and risk management. It includes a selection of the best papers presented at the Fourth International Finance Conference 2007, qualified by Professor James Heckman, the 2000 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics, as a high level one. The first half of the book examines ways to manage risk and compute value-at-risk for exchange risk associated to debt portfolios and portfolios of equity. It also covers the Basel II framework implementation and securitisation. The effects of volatility and risk on the valuation of financial assets are further studied in detail. The second half of the book is dedicated to the banking industry, banking competition on the credit market, banking risk and distress, market valuation, managerial risk taking, and value in the ICT activity. With its inclusion of new concepts and recent literature, academics and risk managers will want to read this book. Sample Chapter(s). Introduction (40 KB). Chapter 1: Managing Derivatives in the Presence of a Smile Effect and Incomplete Information (97 KB). Contents: Managing Derivatives in the Presence of a Smile Effect and Incomplete Information (M Bellalah); A Value-at-Risk Approach to Assess Exchange Risk Associated to a Public Debt Portfolio: The Case of a Small Developing Economy (W Ajili); A Method to Find Historical VaR for Portfolio that Follows S&P CNX Nifty Index by Estimating the Index Value (K V N M Ramesh); Some Considerations on the Relationship between Corruption and Economic Growth (V Dragota et al.); Financial Risk Management by Derivatives Caused from Weather Conditions: Its Applicability for Trkiye (T uzkan); The Basel II Framework Implementation and Securitization (M-F Lamy); Stochastic Time Change, Volatility, and Normality of Returns: A High-Frequency Data Analysis with a Sample of LSE Stocks (O Borsali & A Zenaidi); The Behavior of the Implied Volatility Surface: Evidence from Crude Oil Futures Options (A Bouden); Procyclical Behavior of Loan Loss Provisions and Banking Strategies: An Application to the European Banks (D D Dinamona); Market Power and Banking Competition on the Credit Market (I Lapteacru); Early Warning Detection of Banking Distress OCo Is Failure Possible for European Banks? (A Naouar); Portfolio Diversification and Market Share Analysis for Romanian Insurance Companies (M Dragota et al.); On the Closed-End Funds Discounts/Premiums in the Context of the Investor Sentiment Theory (A P C do Monte & M J da Rocha Armada); Why has Idiosyncratic Volatility Increased in Europe? (J-E Palard); Debt Valuation, Enterprise Assessment and Applications (D Vanoverberghe); Does The Tunisian Stock Market Overreact? (F Hammami & E Abaoub); Investor-Venture Capitalist Relationship: Asymmetric Information, Uncertainty, and Monitoring (M Cherif & S Sraieb); Threshold Mean Reversion in Stock Prices (F Jawadi); Households'' Expectations of Unemployment: New Evidence from French Microdata (S Ghabri); Corporate Governance and Managerial Risk Taking: Empirical Study in the Tunisian Context (A B Aroui & F W B M Douagi); Nonlinearity and Genetic Algorithms in the Decision-Making Process (N Hachicha & A Bouri); ICT and Performance of the Companies: The Case of the Tunisian Companies (J Ziadi); Option Market Microstructure (J-M Sahut); Does the Standardization of Business Processes Improve Management? The Case of Enterprise Resource Planning Systems (T Chtioui); Does Macroeconomic Transparency Help Governments be Solvent? Evidence from Recent Data (R Mallat & D K Nguyen). Readership: Academics and risk managers."

Download or read book Handbook on Systemic Risk written by Jean-Pierre Fouque and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-23 with total page 993 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook on Systemic Risk, written by experts in the field, provides researchers with an introduction to the multifaceted aspects of systemic risks facing the global financial markets. The Handbook explores the multidisciplinary approaches to analyzing this risk, the data requirements for further research, and the recommendations being made to avert financial crisis. The Handbook is designed to encourage new researchers to investigate a topic with immense societal implications as well as to provide, for those already actively involved within their own academic discipline, an introduction to the research being undertaken in other disciplines. Each chapter in the Handbook will provide researchers with a superior introduction to the field and with references to more advanced research articles. It is the hope of the editors that this Handbook will stimulate greater interdisciplinary academic research on the critically important topic of systemic risk in the global financial markets.