Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making Synthesis and Assessment Product 5 2 Report written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by M. Granger Morgan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-05 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program as part of an effort to integrate fed. research on climate change and to facilitate a nat. understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these reports are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this report is methodological. This report provides a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics. Illus.
Download or read book Review of the U S Climate Change Science Program s Synthesis and Assessment Product 5 2 Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2007-02-23 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report reviews the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's new draft assessment product on characterizing and communicating uncertainty information for climate change decision making, one of 21 climate change assessment products that the program is developing to meet the requirements of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. Although the draft assessment is effective in discussing methods of characterizing uncertainty, it falls short in several ways. It is written for researchers involved in assessment efforts and will likely be of use to them, but does not address other key audiences, particularly policymakers, decision-makers, and members of the media and general public. In addition, it does not assess the full range of "best practice approaches" for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating uncertainty. These weaknesses were due in part to a change in the prospectus after the process had begun to include new target audiences and a different scope of work. It will take a substantial revision of the current draft or production of a companion document, both requiring additional authors, to address these issues.
Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making SAP 5 2 written by U. S. Climate Program and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2015-02 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Product is one of 21 synthesis and assessment products (SAPs) commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) as part of an interagency effort to integrate federal research on climate change and to facilitate a national understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these products are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts, and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this Product is methodological. Uncertainty is ubiquitous. Of course, the presence of uncertainty does not mean that people cannot act. As this Product notes, in our private lives, we decide where to go to college, what job to take, whom to marry, what home to buy, when and whether to have children, and countless other important choices, all in the face of large, and often, irreducible uncertainty. The same is true of decisions made by companies and by governments. Recent years have seen considerable progress in the development of improved methods to describe and deal with uncertainty. Progress in applying these methods has been uneven, although the field of climate science and impact assessment has done somewhat better than many others. The primary objective of this Product is to provide a tutorial for the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is largely semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics at the level of journals such as Scientific American. Because the issue of how uncertainty is characterized and dealt with is of broad importance for public policy, we have also prepared a "Non-Technical Summary". Readers who lack the time or background to read the detailed Product may prefer to start there, and then sample from the main Product as they find topics they would like to learn about in greater depth.
Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Best Practicing Approaching for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by Climate Change Science Program and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The primary objective of this report is to provide a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. The report discusses a number of formulations of uncertainty and the various ways in which uncertainty can arise. It introduces several alternative perspectives on uncertainty including both the classical or frequentist view of probability, which defines probability as the property of a large number of repeated trials of some process such as the toss of a coin, and the subjectivist view, in which probability is an indication of degree of belief informed by all available evidence. A distinction is drawn between uncertainty about the value of specific quantities and uncertainty about the underlying functional relationships among key variables. Finally the report addresses a number of issues that arise in communicating about uncertainty. The report includes lessons from both the mitigation and adaptation domain. Reference: Granger Morgan, M., Dowlatabadi, H., Henrion, M., Keith, D., Lempert, R., McBride, S., Small, M. and Wilbanks, T. (Eds.) (2009) Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC, US.
Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by and published by . This book was released on 2008* with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Our Changing Planet written by Climate Change Science Program (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis written by M. Granger Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many books instruct readers on how to use the tools of policy analysis. This book is different. Its primary focus is on helping readers to look critically at the strengths, limitations, and the underlying assumptions analysts make when they use standard tools or problem framings. Using examples, many of which involve issues in science and technology, the book exposes readers to some of the critical issues of taste, professional responsibility, ethics, and values that are associated with policy analysis and research. Topics covered include policy problems formulated in terms of utility maximization such as benefit-cost, decision, and multi-attribute analysis, issues in the valuation of intangibles, uncertainty in policy analysis, selected topics in risk analysis and communication, limitations and alternatives to the paradigm of utility maximization, issues in behavioral decision theory, issues related to organizations and multiple agents, and selected topics in policy advice and policy analysis for government.
Download or read book Shaping the Message Distorting the Science written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology (2007). Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Download or read book Addressing Climate Change in Local Water Agency Plans written by David G. Groves and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes an approach for planning under deep uncertainty, Robust Decision Making (RDM), and demonstrates its use by the El Dorado Irrigation District (EID). Using RDM, the authors and EID tested the robustness of current long-term water management plans and more robust alternatives across more than 50 futures reflecting different assumptions about future climate, urban growth, and the availability of important new supplies.
Download or read book Interdisciplinary Research on Climate and Energy Decision Making written by M. Granger Morgan and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-12-16 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the role and importance of interdisciplinary research in addressing key issues in climate and energy decision making. For over 30 years, an interdisciplinary team of faculty and students anchored at Carnegie Mellon University, joined by investigators and students from a number of other collaborating institutions across North America, Europe, and Australia, have worked together to better understand the global changes that are being caused by both human activities and natural causes. This book tells the story of their successful interdisciplinary work. With each chapter written in the first person, the authors have three key objectives: (1) to document and provide an accessible account of how they have framed and addressed a range of the key problems that are posed by the human dimensions of global change; (2) to illustrate how investigators and graduate students have worked together productively across different disciplines and locations on common problems; and (3) to encourage funders and scholars across the world to undertake similar large- scale interdisciplinary research activities to meet the world’s largest challenges. Exploring topics such as energy efficiency, public health, and climate adaptation, and with a final chapter dedicated to lessons learned, this innovative volume will be of great interest to students and scholars of climate change, energy transitions and environmental studies more broadly.
Download or read book New Perspectives in Climate Change written by Emerald Group Publishing Limited and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2015-10-29 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New Perspectives in Climate Change is a unique collection of articles that discuss key areas of research among academics in the field. These include the following: - Climate change adaptation - Vulnerability to and mitigation of climate change This collection provides an unparalleled insight into the subject of climate change
Download or read book Effective Risk Communication written by Joseph Arvai and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-10-30 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are two questions often asked of risk communication: what has been learned from past work, and what is needed to push the field forward? Drawing on the experience of leading risk researchers and practitioners, Effective Risk Communication focuses on answering these questions. The book draws together new examples of research and practice from contexts as diverse as energy generation, human health, nuclear waste, climate change, food choice, and social media. This book treats risk communication as much more than the interchange of risk information between experts and non-experts; rather, it aims to emphasise the diversity in viewpoints and practices. In each specially commissioned chapter, the authors reflect on the theoretical and applied underpinnings of their best projects and comment on how their approach could be used effectively by others. Building upon each other, the chapters will provoke new discussion and action around a discipline which many feel is neither meeting important needs in practice, nor living up to its potential in research. Through a more careful examination of the work already done in risk communication, the book will help develop better, more reflective practice for the future.
Download or read book Adapting to an Uncertain Climate written by Tiago Capela Lourenço and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-04-14 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring these new approaches is also a challenge for those involved in climate research and development of adaptation policy. The book provides a dozen real-life examples of adaptation decision making in the form of case studies: · Water supply management in Portugal, England and Wales and Hungary · Flooding, including flood risk in Ireland, coastal flooding and erosion in Southwest France, and flood management in Australia’s Hutt River region · Transport and utilities, including the Austrian Federal railway system, public transit in Dresden, and Québec hydro-electric power · Report examining communication of large numbers of climate scenarios in Dutch climate adaptation workshops.
