Download or read book Belief Credibility Disbelief Possibility Potential Surprise and Probability as Measures of Uncertainty written by J. L. Ford and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Belief Credibility Disbelief Possibility Potential Surprise and Probability a written by J. L. Ford and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainty and the Environment written by Richard Young and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2001 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After critiquing the use of traditional models such as expected utility in environmental decision-making, Young, a consultant with Arthur Anderson in London, argues for evaluating decision-making models in relation to the rationality of the way decisions are made. He outlines an alternative model of making decisions under uncertainty derived from the work of George Shackle, and applies it to environmental decision making by the government of Belize, the Inter- American Development Bank, the World Bank, and other institutions. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Download or read book The Primitive Uncertainty Construct written by J. L. Ford and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Primitive Uncertainty Construct Possibility Potential Surprise Probabil written by J. L. Ford and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probabilistic Analysis of Belief Functions written by Ivan Kramosil and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-12-31 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inspired by the eternal beauty and truth of the laws governing the run of stars on heavens over his head, and spurred by the idea to catch, perhaps for the smallest fraction of the shortest instant, the Eternity itself, man created such masterpieces of human intellect like the Platon's world of ideas manifesting eternal truths, like the Euclidean geometry, or like the Newtonian celestial me chanics. However, turning his look to the sub-lunar world of our everyday efforts, troubles, sorrows and, from time to time but very, very seldom, also our successes, he saw nothing else than a world full of uncertainty and tem porariness. One remedy or rather consolation was that of the deep and sage resignation offered by Socrates: I know, that I know nothing. But, happy or unhappy enough, the temptation to see and to touch at least a very small por tion of eternal truth also under these circumstances and behind phenomena charged by uncertainty was too strong. Probability theory in its most sim ple elementary setting entered the scene. It happened in the same, 17th and 18th centuries, when celestial mechanics with its classical Platonist paradigma achieved its greatest triumphs. The origins of probability theory were inspired by games of chance like roulettes, lotteries, dices, urn schemata, etc. and probability values were simply defined by the ratio of successful or winning results relative to the total number of possible outcomes.
Download or read book Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2013-03-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Download or read book Possibility Theory written by Didier Dubois and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the evolution of scientific theories, concern with uncertainty is almost invariably a concomitant of maturation. This is certainly true of the evolution· of physics, economics, operations research, communication sciences, and a host of other fields. And it is true of what has been happening more recently in the area of artificial intelligence, most notably in the development of theories relating to the management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems. In science, it is traditional to deal with uncertainty through the use of probability theory. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly clear that there are some important facets of uncertainty which do not lend themselves to analysis by classical probability-based methods. One such facet is that of lexical elasticity, which relates to the fuzziness of words in natural languages. As a case in point, even a simple relation X, Y, and Z, expressed as if X is small and Y is very large then between Z is not very small, does not lend itself to a simple interpretation within the framework of probability theory by reason of the lexical elasticity of the predicates small and large.
Download or read book British Reports Translations and Theses written by British Library. Document Supply Centre and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 772 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issue for Mar. 1981 contains index for Jan.-Mar. 1981 in microfiche form.
Download or read book Uncertainty Theory written by Baoding Liu and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a branch of mathematics that studies the behavior of random, fuzzy and rough events, uncertainty theory is the generic name of probability theory, credibility theory, and trust theory. The main purpose of this book is to provide axiomatic foundations of uncertainty theory. Itwasgenerallybelievedthatthestudyofprobabilitytheorywasstartedby Pascal and Fermat in 1654 when they succeeded in deriving the exact pro- bilities for certain gambling problem. Great progress was achieved when Von Mises initialized the concept of sample space, and ?lled the gape between probability theory and measure theory in 1931. A complete axiomatic fo- dation of probability theory was given by Kolmogoro? in 1933. Since then, probability theory has been developed steadily and has been widely applied in science and engineering. The axiomatic foundation of probability theory will be introduced in Chapter 2. Fuzzy set was initialized by Zadeh via membership function in 1965, and was well developed and applied in a wide variety of real problems. As a fuzzy set of real numbers, the term fuzzy variable was ?rst introduced by Kaufmann in 1975. In order to make a mathematical foundation, Nahmias gave three axioms to de?ne possibility measure in 1978, and Liu gave the fourth axiom to de?ne product possibility measure in 2002. There are three types of measure in the fuzzy world: possibility, necessity, and credibility.
Download or read book Uncertainty Theory written by Baoding Liu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-09-10 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, control, and finance.
Download or read book The Geometry of Uncertainty written by Fabio Cuzzolin and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The principal aim of this book is to introduce to the widest possible audience an original view of belief calculus and uncertainty theory. In this geometric approach to uncertainty, uncertainty measures can be seen as points of a suitably complex geometric space, and manipulated in that space, for example, combined or conditioned. In the chapters in Part I, Theories of Uncertainty, the author offers an extensive recapitulation of the state of the art in the mathematics of uncertainty. This part of the book contains the most comprehensive summary to date of the whole of belief theory, with Chap. 4 outlining for the first time, and in a logical order, all the steps of the reasoning chain associated with modelling uncertainty using belief functions, in an attempt to provide a self-contained manual for the working scientist. In addition, the book proposes in Chap. 5 what is possibly the most detailed compendium available of all theories of uncertainty. Part II, The Geometry of Uncertainty, is the core of this book, as it introduces the author's own geometric approach to uncertainty theory, starting with the geometry of belief functions: Chap. 7 studies the geometry of the space of belief functions, or belief space, both in terms of a simplex and in terms of its recursive bundle structure; Chap. 8 extends the analysis to Dempster's rule of combination, introducing the notion of a conditional subspace and outlining a simple geometric construction for Dempster's sum; Chap. 9 delves into the combinatorial properties of plausibility and commonality functions, as equivalent representations of the evidence carried by a belief function; then Chap. 10 starts extending the applicability of the geometric approach to other uncertainty measures, focusing in particular on possibility measures (consonant belief functions) and the related notion of a consistent belief function. The chapters in Part III, Geometric Interplays, are concerned with the interplay of uncertainty measures of different kinds, and the geometry of their relationship, with a particular focus on the approximation problem. Part IV, Geometric Reasoning, examines the application of the geometric approach to the various elements of the reasoning chain illustrated in Chap. 4, in particular conditioning and decision making. Part V concludes the book by outlining a future, complete statistical theory of random sets, future extensions of the geometric approach, and identifying high-impact applications to climate change, machine learning and artificial intelligence. The book is suitable for researchers in artificial intelligence, statistics, and applied science engaged with theories of uncertainty. The book is supported with the most comprehensive bibliography on belief and uncertainty theory.
Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Download or read book Preference Belief and Similarity written by Amos Tversky and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003-11-21 with total page 1046 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amos Tversky (1937–1996), a towering figure in cognitive and mathematical psychology, devoted his professional life to the study of similarity, judgment, and decision making. He had a unique ability to master the technicalities of normative ideals and then to intuit and demonstrate experimentally their systematic violation due to the vagaries and consequences of human information processing. He created new areas of study and helped transform disciplines as varied as economics, law, medicine, political science, philosophy, and statistics. This book collects forty of Tversky's articles, selected by him in collaboration with the editor during the last months of Tversky's life. It is divided into three sections: Similarity, Judgment, and Preferences. The Preferences section is subdivided into Probabilistic Models of Choice, Choice under Risk and Uncertainty, and Contingent Preferences. Included are several articles written with his frequent collaborator, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman.
Download or read book Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists written by and published by . This book was released on 1970-06 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence written by Laveen N. Kanal and published by North Holland. This book was released on 1986 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hardbound. How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.
Download or read book Handbook of Risk Theory written by Rafaela Hillerbrand and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 1209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. But the topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. This handbook provides for an overview into key topics in a major new field of research. It addresses a wide range of topics, ranging from decision theory, risk perception to ethics and social implications of risk, and it also addresses specific case studies. It aims to promote communication and information among all those who are interested in theoetical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. This handbook brings together internationally leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. We hope that the Handbook of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives.
