Download or read book Adaptive Markets written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-05-14 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can’t agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist—the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo’s new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work.

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Markets Dynamics and Evolution written by Thorsten Hens and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The models of portfolio selection and asset price dynamics in this volume seek to explain the market dynamics of asset prices. Presenting a range of analytical, empirical, and numerical techniques as well as several different modeling approaches, the authors depict the state of debate on the market selection hypothesis. By explicitly assuming the heterogeneity of investors, they present models that are descriptive and normative as well, making the volume useful for both finance theorists and financial practitioners. - Explains the market dynamics of asset prices, offering insights about asset management approaches - Assumes a heterogeneity of investors that yields descriptive and normative models of portfolio selections and asset pricing dynamics

Download or read book The Handbook of Post Crisis Financial Modelling written by Emmanuel Haven and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2015-11-25 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2008 financial crisis was a watershed moment which clearly influenced the public's perception of the role of 'finance' in society. Since 2008, a plethora of books and newspaper articles have been produced accusing the academic community of being unable to produce valid models which can accommodate those extreme events. This unique Handbook brings together leading practitioners and academics in the areas of banking, mathematics, and law to present original research on the key issues affecting financial modelling since the 2008 financial crisis. As well as exploring themes of distributional assumptions and efficiency the Handbook also explores how financial modelling can possibly be re-interpreted in light of the 2008 crisis.

Download or read book An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change written by Richard R. Nelson and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1985-10-15 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the most sustained and serious attack on mainstream, neoclassical economics in more than forty years. Nelson and Winter focus their critique on the basic question of how firms and industries change overtime. They marshal significant objections to the fundamental neoclassical assumptions of profit maximization and market equilibrium, which they find ineffective in the analysis of technological innovation and the dynamics of competition among firms. To replace these assumptions, they borrow from biology the concept of natural selection to construct a precise and detailed evolutionary theory of business behavior. They grant that films are motivated by profit and engage in search for ways of improving profits, but they do not consider them to be profit maximizing. Likewise, they emphasize the tendency for the more profitable firms to drive the less profitable ones out of business, but they do not focus their analysis on hypothetical states of industry equilibrium. The results of their new paradigm and analytical framework are impressive. Not only have they been able to develop more coherent and powerful models of competitive firm dynamics under conditions of growth and technological change, but their approach is compatible with findings in psychology and other social sciences. Finally, their work has important implications for welfare economics and for government policy toward industry.

Download or read book Temporary Equilibrium written by Jean-Michel Grandmont and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The collection of journal articles reproduced in this volume provides a synthesis of the progress made in the last 15 years in the theory of temporary equilibrium. Key Features * Decision making * Competitive assets markets * Models of money * Deterministic dynamics * Stochastic processes * Quantity rationing

Download or read book Theory of Incomplete Markets written by Michael Magill and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theory of incompl. markets/M. Magill, M. Quinzii. - V.1.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance written by Shu-Heng Chen and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 785 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.

Download or read book Unfoldings and Bifurcations of Quasi Periodic Tori written by Hendrik Wolter Broer and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 1990 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part I. We consider dynamical systems depending on parameters in various, both conservative and dissipative settings. For such systems integrability is defined as equivariance with respect to an appropriate torus action.

Download or read book Evolutionary Games and Poverty Traps written by Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2015-11-25 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores how persistent states of underdevelopment can arise in strategic environments in which players are imitative rather than fully rational. Standard growth theory teaches that poverty traps are stable, low-level balanced growth paths to which economies gravitate due to adverse initial conditions or poor equilibrium selection. In other words, societies fail to take off into sustained growth because they started out as poor, with, for example, low longevity or poor human capital, or because they cannot invent institutions that successfully coordinate their investments. Evolutionary Games and Poverty Traps explains this pernicious form of coordination failure as a game between economic agents, such as, for example, firms investing in research and development and workers investing in human capital. Rates of return on research and development depend on average human capital, and rates of return on human capital depend on aggregate research and development spending. The outcome is a self-confirming equilibrium in evolutionary stable strategies in which unsuccessful players imitate successful ones. This equilibrium is particularly interesting in that in poor economies with a large fraction of low-human-capital workers or low research and development firms, imitative strategies do not support a take-off into sustained growth. To achieve such a take-off, society should subsidize the cost of education or research and development until the economy builds a critical mass of human capital or research and development.

Download or read book The Socionomic Theory of Finance written by Robert R. Prechter and published by New Classics Library. This book was released on 2016-12 with total page 822 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Socionomic Theory of Finance is a 13-year-long effort by Robert Prechter. It includes supporting chapters from twelve other scholars, writers, researchers and analysts. In contrast to the dismal science of economics, Prechter's theory is original, exciting and intellectually fulfilling. Every chapter rebuts conventions and offers ground-breaking insights in presenting a cohesive model with real-world application. The book draws a crucial distinction between finance and economics and ties both fields to human social behavior. Top reviewers from multiple disciplines have offered acclaim. Professor Terry Burnham calls it "the best book ever written on financial markets." In time, STF will transform the thinking of every individual in the world of finance. Read it and be among the first.

Download or read book Agent Based Modeling written by Norman Ehrentreich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-10-30 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reconciles the existence of technical trading with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. By analyzing a well-known agent-based model, the Santa Fe Institute Artificial Stock Market (SFI-ASM), it finds that when selective forces are weak, financial evolution cannot guarantee that only the fittest trading rules will survive. Its main contribution lies in the application of standard results from population genetics which have widely been neglected in the agent-based community.

Download or read book Simulation of Financial Markets with Agent Based Model written by Hajime Kita and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-25 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book takes up unique agent-based approaches to solving problems related to stock and their derivative markets. Toward this end, the authors have worked for more than 15 years on the development of an artificial market simulator called U-Mart for use as a research and educational tool. A noteworthy feature of the U-Mart simulator compared to other artificial market simulators is that U-Mart is an ultra-realistic artificial stock and their derivative market simulator. For example, it can simulate “arrowhead,” a next-generation trading system used in the Tokyo Stock Exchange and other major markets, as it takes into consideration the institutional design of the entire market. Another interesting feature of the U-Mart simulator is that it permits both human and computer programs to participate simultaneously as traders in the artificial market. In this book, first the details of U-Mart are explained, enabling readers to install and run the simulator on their computers for research and educational purposes. The simulator thus can be used for gaming simulation of the artificial market and even for users as agents to implement their own trading strategies for agent-based simulation (ABS).The book also presents selected research cases using the U-Mart simulator. Here, topics include automated acquisition of trading strategy using artificial intelligence techniques, evaluation of a market maker system to treat thin markets such as those for small and regional businesses, systemic risk analysis of the financial market considering institutional design of the market, and analysis of how humans behave and learn in gaming simulation. New perspectives on artificial market research are provided, and the power, potential, and challenge of ABS are discussed. As explained in this important work, ABS is considered to be an effective tool as the third approach of social science, an alternative to traditional literary and mathematical approaches.

Download or read book A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing written by Hersh Shefrin and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2008-05-19 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition

Download or read book Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics written by Paul De Grauwe and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-10-14 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In mainstream economics, and particularly in New Keynesian macroeconomics, the booms and busts that characterize capitalism arise because of large external shocks. The combination of these shocks and the slow adjustments of wages and prices by rational agents leads to cyclical movements. In this book, Paul De Grauwe argues for a different macroeconomics model--one that works with an internal explanation of the business cycle and factors in agents' limited cognitive abilities. By creating a behavioral model that is not dependent on the prevailing concept of rationality, De Grauwe is better able to explain the fluctuations of economic activity that are an endemic feature of market economies. This new approach illustrates a richer macroeconomic dynamic that provides for a better understanding of fluctuations in output and inflation. De Grauwe shows that the behavioral model is driven by self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism, or animal spirits. Booms and busts in economic activity are therefore natural outcomes of a behavioral model. The author uses this to analyze central issues in monetary policies, such as output stabilization, before extending his investigation into asset markets and more sophisticated forecasting rules. He also examines how well the theoretical predictions of the behavioral model perform when confronted with empirical data. Develops a behavioral macroeconomic model that assumes agents have limited cognitive abilities Shows how booms and busts are characteristic of market economies Explores the larger role of the central bank in the behavioral model Examines the destabilizing aspects of asset markets

Download or read book How Markets Fail written by Cassidy John and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 485 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How did we get to where we are? John Cassidy shows that the roots of our most recent financial failure lie not with individuals, but with an idea - the idea that markets are inherently rational. He gives us the big picture behind the financial headlines, tracing the rise and fall of free market ideology from Adam Smith to Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan. Full of wit, sense and, above all, a deeper understanding, How Markets Fail argues for the end of 'utopian' economics, and the beginning of a pragmatic, reality-based way of thinking. A very good history of economic thought Economist How Markets Fail offers a brilliant intellectual framework . . . fine work New York Times An essential, grittily intellectual, yet compelling guide to the financial debacle of 2009 Geordie Greig, Evening Standard A powerful argument . . . Cassidy makes a compelling case that a return to hands-off economics would be a disaster BusinessWeek This book is a well constructed, thoughtful and cogent account of how capitalism evolved to its current form Telegraph Books of the Year recommendation John Cassidy ... describe[s] that mix of insight and madness that brought the world's system to its knees FT, Book of the Year recommendation Anyone who enjoys a good read can safely embark on this tour with Cassidy as their guide . . . Like his colleague Malcolm Gladwell [at the New Yorker], Cassidy is able to lead us with beguiling lucidity through unfamiliar territory New Statesman John Cassidy has covered economics and finance at The New Yorker magazine since 1995, writing on topics ranging from Alan Greenspan to the Iraqi oil industry and English journalism. He is also now a Contributing Editor at Portfolio where he writes the monthly Economics column. Two of his articles have been nominated for National Magazine Awards: an essay on Karl Marx, which appeared in October, 1997, and an account of the death of the British weapons scientist David Kelly, which was published in December, 2003. He has previously written for Sunday Times in as well as the New York Post, where he edited the Business section and then served as the deputy editor. In 2002, Cassidy published his first book, Dot.Con. He lives in New York.

Download or read book Modeling Aggregate Behavior and Fluctuations in Economics written by Masanao Aoki and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-12-20 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book has two components: stochastic dynamics and stochastic random combinatorial analysis. The first discusses evolving patterns of interactions of a large but finite number of agents of several types. Changes of agent types or their choices or decisions over time are formulated as jump Markov processes with suitably specified transition rates: optimisations by agents make these rates generally endogenous. Probabilistic equilibrium selection rules are also discussed, together with the distributions of relative sizes of the bases of attraction. As the number of agents approaches infinity, we recover deterministic macroeconomic relations of more conventional economic models. The second component analyses how agents form clusters of various sizes. This has applications for discussing sizes or shares of markets by various agents which involve some combinatorial analysis patterned after the population genetics literature. These are shown to be relevant to distributions of returns to assets, volatility of returns, and power laws.

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.