Download or read book Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way written by Will Kurt and published by No Starch Press. This book was released on 2019-07-09 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
Download or read book Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way written by Will Kurt and published by No Starch Press. This book was released on 2019-07-16 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
Download or read book Bayesian Statistics for Beginners written by Therese M. Donovan and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2019 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an entry-level book on Bayesian statistics written in a casual, and conversational tone. The authors walk a reader through many sample problems step-by-step to provide those with little background in math or statistics with the vocabulary, notation, and understanding of the calculations used in many Bayesian problems.
Download or read book A Student s Guide to Bayesian Statistics written by Ben Lambert and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2018-04-20 with total page 738 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Supported by a wealth of learning features, exercises, and visual elements as well as online video tutorials and interactive simulations, this book is the first student-focused introduction to Bayesian statistics. Without sacrificing technical integrity for the sake of simplicity, the author draws upon accessible, student-friendly language to provide approachable instruction perfectly aimed at statistics and Bayesian newcomers. Through a logical structure that introduces and builds upon key concepts in a gradual way and slowly acclimatizes students to using R and Stan software, the book covers: An introduction to probability and Bayesian inference Understanding Bayes′ rule Nuts and bolts of Bayesian analytic methods Computational Bayes and real-world Bayesian analysis Regression analysis and hierarchical methods This unique guide will help students develop the statistical confidence and skills to put the Bayesian formula into practice, from the basic concepts of statistical inference to complex applications of analyses.
Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.
Download or read book Introduction to Bayesian Statistics written by William M. Bolstad and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-06-05 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the First Edition "I cannot think of a better book for teachers of introductory statistics who want a readable and pedagogically sound text to introduce Bayesian statistics." —Statistics in Medical Research "[This book] is written in a lucid conversational style, which is so rare in mathematical writings. It does an excellent job of presenting Bayesian statistics as a perfectly reasonable approach to elementary problems in statistics." —STATS: The Magazine for Students of Statistics, American Statistical Association "Bolstad offers clear explanations of every concept and method making the book accessible and valuable to undergraduate and graduate students alike." —Journal of Applied Statistics The use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis has become increasingly popular, yet most introductory statistics texts continue to only present the subject using frequentist methods. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Second Edition focuses on Bayesian methods that can be used for inference, and it also addresses how these methods compare favorably with frequentist alternatives. Teaching statistics from the Bayesian perspective allows for direct probability statements about parameters, and this approach is now more relevant than ever due to computer programs that allow practitioners to work on problems that contain many parameters. This book uniquely covers the topics typically found in an introductory statistics book—but from a Bayesian perspective—giving readers an advantage as they enter fields where statistics is used. This Second Edition provides: Extended coverage of Poisson and Gamma distributions Two new chapters on Bayesian inference for Poisson observations and Bayesian inference for the standard deviation for normal observations A twenty-five percent increase in exercises with selected answers at the end of the book A calculus refresher appendix and a summary on the use of statistical tables New computer exercises that use R functions and Minitab® macros for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Second Edition is an invaluable textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate-level statistics courses as well as a practical reference for statisticians who require a working knowledge of Bayesian statistics.
Download or read book Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis written by Ronald Christensen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-07-07 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emphasizing the use of WinBUGS and R to analyze real data, Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis: An Introduction for Scientists and Statisticians presents statistical tools to address scientific questions. It highlights foundational issues in statistics, the importance of making accurate predictions, and the need for scientists and statisticians to collaborate in analyzing data. The WinBUGS code provided offers a convenient platform to model and analyze a wide range of data. The first five chapters of the book contain core material that spans basic Bayesian ideas, calculations, and inference, including modeling one and two sample data from traditional sampling models. The text then covers Monte Carlo methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. After discussing linear structures in regression, it presents binomial regression, normal regression, analysis of variance, and Poisson regression, before extending these methods to handle correlated data. The authors also examine survival analysis and binary diagnostic testing. A complementary chapter on diagnostic testing for continuous outcomes is available on the book’s website. The last chapter on nonparametric inference explores density estimation and flexible regression modeling of mean functions. The appropriate statistical analysis of data involves a collaborative effort between scientists and statisticians. Exemplifying this approach, Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis focuses on the necessary tools and concepts for modeling and analyzing scientific data. Data sets and codes are provided on a supplemental website.
Download or read book Think Bayes written by Allen Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2013-09-12 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you know how to program with Python, and know a little about probability, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. This book shows you how to use Python code instead of math to help you learn Bayesian fundamentals. Once you get the math out of the way, you'll be able to apply these techniques to real-world problems.
Download or read book Bayes Rule written by James V. Stone and published by Sebtel Press. This book was released on 2013-06-01 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this richly illustrated book, a range of accessible examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a natural consequence of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for the novice who wishes to become familiar with the basic principles of Bayesian analysis.
Download or read book A First Course in Bayesian Statistical Methods written by Peter D. Hoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-06-02 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A self-contained introduction to probability, exchangeability and Bayes’ rule provides a theoretical understanding of the applied material. Numerous examples with R-code that can be run "as-is" allow the reader to perform the data analyses themselves. The development of Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in the context of data analysis examples provides motivation for these computational methods.
Download or read book Bayes Rules written by Alicia A. Johnson and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-03-03 with total page 606 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling “A thoughtful and entertaining book, and a great way to get started with Bayesian analysis.” Andrew Gelman, Columbia University “The examples are modern, and even many frequentist intro books ignore important topics (like the great p-value debate) that the authors address. The focus on simulation for understanding is excellent.” Amy Herring, Duke University “I sincerely believe that a generation of students will cite this book as inspiration for their use of – and love for – Bayesian statistics. The narrative holds the reader’s attention and flows naturally – almost conversationally. Put simply, this is perhaps the most engaging introductory statistics textbook I have ever read. [It] is a natural choice for an introductory undergraduate course in applied Bayesian statistics." Yue Jiang, Duke University “This is by far the best book I’ve seen on how to (and how to teach students to) do Bayesian modeling and understand the underlying mathematics and computation. The authors build intuition and scaffold ideas expertly, using interesting real case studies, insightful graphics, and clear explanations. The scope of this book is vast – from basic building blocks to hierarchical modeling, but the authors’ thoughtful organization allows the reader to navigate this journey smoothly. And impressively, by the end of the book, one can run sophisticated Bayesian models and actually understand the whys, whats, and hows.” Paul Roback, St. Olaf College “The authors provide a compelling, integrated, accessible, and non-religious introduction to statistical modeling using a Bayesian approach. They outline a principled approach that features computational implementations and model assessment with ethical implications interwoven throughout. Students and instructors will find the conceptual and computational exercises to be fresh and engaging.” Nicholas Horton, Amherst College An engaging, sophisticated, and fun introduction to the field of Bayesian statistics, Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling brings the power of modern Bayesian thinking, modeling, and computing to a broad audience. In particular, the book is an ideal resource for advanced undergraduate statistics students and practitioners with comparable experience. Bayes Rules! empowers readers to weave Bayesian approaches into their everyday practice. Discussions and applications are data driven. A natural progression from fundamental to multivariable, hierarchical models emphasizes a practical and generalizable model building process. The evaluation of these Bayesian models reflects the fact that a data analysis does not exist in a vacuum. Features • Utilizes data-driven examples and exercises. • Emphasizes the iterative model building and evaluation process. • Surveys an interconnected range of multivariable regression and classification models. • Presents fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. • Integrates R code, including RStan modeling tools and the bayesrules package. • Encourages readers to tap into their intuition and learn by doing. • Provides a friendly and inclusive introduction to technical Bayesian concepts. • Supports Bayesian applications with foundational Bayesian theory.
Download or read book Think Bayes written by Allen B. Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you know how to program, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical formulas, using discrete probability distributions rather than continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer and you'll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but there aren't many resources available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen B. Downey, this book's computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and Bayesian hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, dice, and a bowl of cookies Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems
Download or read book Bernoulli s Fallacy written by Aubrey Clayton and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 641 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.
Download or read book Introduction to Bayesian Statistics written by William M. Bolstad and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-09-02 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "...this edition is useful and effective in teaching Bayesian inference at both elementary and intermediate levels. It is a well-written book on elementary Bayesian inference, and the material is easily accessible. It is both concise and timely, and provides a good collection of overviews and reviews of important tools used in Bayesian statistical methods." There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian statistics. The authors continue to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inference for discrete random variables, binomial proportions, Poisson, and normal means, and simple linear regression. In addition, more advanced topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference for a normal with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for a Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for the Multiple Linear Regression Model; and Computational Bayesian Statistics including Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inclusion of these topics will facilitate readers' ability to advance from a minimal understanding of Statistics to the ability to tackle topics in more applied, advanced level books. Minitab macros and R functions are available on the book's related website to assist with chapter exercises. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition also features: Topics including the Joint Likelihood function and inference using independent Jeffreys priors and join conjugate prior The cutting-edge topic of computational Bayesian Statistics in a new chapter, with a unique focus on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods Exercises throughout the book that have been updated to reflect new applications and the latest software applications Detailed appendices that guide readers through the use of R and Minitab software for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, with all related macros available on the book's website Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition is a textbook for upper-undergraduate or first-year graduate level courses on introductory statistics course with a Bayesian emphasis. It can also be used as a reference work for statisticians who require a working knowledge of Bayesian statistics.
Download or read book Bayesian Theory written by José M. Bernardo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-25 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This highly acclaimed text, now available in paperback, provides a thorough account of key concepts and theoretical results, with particular emphasis on viewing statistical inference as a special case of decision theory. Information-theoretic concepts play a central role in the development of the theory, which provides, in particular, a detailed discussion of the problem of specification of so-called prior ignorance . The work is written from the authors s committed Bayesian perspective, but an overview of non-Bayesian theories is also provided, and each chapter contains a wide-ranging critical re-examination of controversial issues. The level of mathematics used is such that most material is accessible to readers with knowledge of advanced calculus. In particular, no knowledge of abstract measure theory is assumed, and the emphasis throughout is on statistical concepts rather than rigorous mathematics. The book will be an ideal source for all students and researchers in statistics, mathematics, decision analysis, economic and business studies, and all branches of science and engineering, who wish to further their understanding of Bayesian statistics
Download or read book Get Programming with Haskell written by Will Kurt and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2018-03-06 with total page 794 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Summary Get Programming with Haskell leads you through short lessons, examples, and exercises designed to make Haskell your own. It has crystal-clear illustrations and guided practice. You will write and test dozens of interesting programs and dive into custom Haskell modules. You will gain a new perspective on programming plus the practical ability to use Haskell in the everyday world. (The 80 IQ points: not guaranteed.) Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the Technology Programming languages often differ only around the edges—a few keywords, libraries, or platform choices. Haskell gives you an entirely new point of view. To the software pioneer Alan Kay, a change in perspective can be worth 80 IQ points and Haskellers agree on the dramatic benefits of thinking the Haskell way—thinking functionally, with type safety, mathematical certainty, and more. In this hands-on book, that's exactly what you'll learn to do. What's Inside Thinking in Haskell Functional programming basics Programming in types Real-world applications for Haskell About the Reader Written for readers who know one or more programming languages. Table of Contents Lesson 1 Getting started with Haskell Unit 1 - FOUNDATIONS OF FUNCTIONAL PROGRAMMING Lesson 2 Functions and functional programming Lesson 3 Lambda functions and lexical scope Lesson 4 First-class functions Lesson 5 Closures and partial application Lesson 6 Lists Lesson 7 Rules for recursion and pattern matching Lesson 8 Writing recursive functions Lesson 9 Higher-order functions Lesson 10 Capstone: Functional object-oriented programming with robots! Unit 2 - INTRODUCING TYPES Lesson 11 Type basics Lesson 12 Creating your own types Lesson 13 Type classes Lesson 14 Using type classes Lesson 15 Capstone: Secret messages! Unit 3 - PROGRAMMING IN TYPES Lesson 16 Creating types with "and" and "or" Lesson 17 Design by composition—Semigroups and Monoids Lesson 18 Parameterized types Lesson 19 The Maybe type: dealing with missing values Lesson 20 Capstone: Time series Unit 4 - IO IN HASKELL Lesson 21 Hello World!—introducing IO types Lesson 22 Interacting with the command line and lazy I/O Lesson 23 Working with text and Unicode Lesson 24 Working with files Lesson 25 Working with binary data Lesson 26 Capstone: Processing binary files and book data Unit 5 - WORKING WITH TYPE IN A CONTEXT Lesson 27 The Functor type class Lesson 28 A peek at the Applicative type class: using functions in a context Lesson 29 Lists as context: a deeper look at the Applicative type class Lesson 30 Introducing the Monad type class Lesson 31 Making Monads easier with donotation Lesson 32 The list monad and list comprehensions Lesson 33 Capstone: SQL-like queries in Haskell Unit 6 - ORGANIZING CODE AND BUILDING PROJECTS Lesson 34 Organizing Haskell code with modules Lesson 35 Building projects with stack Lesson 36 Property testing with QuickCheck Lesson 37 Capstone: Building a prime-number library Unit 7 - PRACTICAL HASKELL Lesson 38 Errors in Haskell and the Either type Lesson 39 Making HTTP requests in Haskell Lesson 40 Working with JSON data by using Aeson Lesson 41 Using databases in Haskell Lesson 42 Efficient, stateful arrays in Haskell Afterword - What's next? Appendix - Sample answers to exercise
Download or read book The Theory That Would Not Die written by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2011-05-17 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This account of how a once reviled theory, Baye’s rule, came to underpin modern life is both approachable and engrossing" (Sunday Times). A New York Times Book Review Editors’ Choice Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the generations-long human drama surrounding it. McGrayne traces the rule’s discovery by an 18th century amateur mathematician through its development by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—while practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, such as Alan Turing's work breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II. McGrayne also explains how the advent of computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
