Download or read book Bayesian Full Information Analysis of Simultaneous Equation Models Using Integration by Monte Carlo written by L. Bauwens and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In their review of the "Bayesian analysis of simultaneous equation systems", Dr~ze and Richard (1983) - hereafter DR - express the following viewpoint about the present state of development of the Bayesian full information analysis of such sys tems i) the method allows "a flexible specification of the prior density, including well defined noninformative prior measures"; ii) it yields "exact finite sample posterior and predictive densities". However, they call for further developments so that these densities can be eval uated through 'numerical methods, using an integrated software packa~e. To that end, they recommend the use of a Monte Carlo technique, since van Dijk and Kloek (1980) have demonstrated that "the integrations can be done and how they are done". In this monograph, we explain how we contribute to achieve the developments suggested by Dr~ze and Richard. A basic idea is to use known properties of the porterior density of the param eters of the structural form to design the importance functions, i. e. approximations of the posterior density, that are needed for organizing the integrations.

Download or read book Bayesian Full Information Analysis of Simultaneous Equation Models Using Integration by Monte Carlo written by L. Bauwens and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-02-25 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In their review of the "Bayesian analysis of simultaneous equation systems", Dr~ze and Richard (1983) - hereafter DR - express the following viewpoint about the present state of development of the Bayesian full information analysis of such sys tems i) the method allows "a flexible specification of the prior density, including well defined noninformative prior measures"; ii) it yields "exact finite sample posterior and predictive densities". However, they call for further developments so that these densities can be eval uated through 'numerical methods, using an integrated software packa~e. To that end, they recommend the use of a Monte Carlo technique, since van Dijk and Kloek (1980) have demonstrated that "the integrations can be done and how they are done". In this monograph, we explain how we contribute to achieve the developments suggested by Dr~ze and Richard. A basic idea is to use known properties of the porterior density of the param eters of the structural form to design the importance functions, i. e. approximations of the posterior density, that are needed for organizing the integrations.

Download or read book Bayesian Full Information Analysis of Simultaneous Equation Models Using Integration by Monte Carlo written by Luc Bauwens and published by Springer Verlag. This book was released on 1984 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Static Microeconomic Model of Pure Competition written by Christoph Klein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book studies a large economy. It deals with a static microeconomic model of an exchange market with pure competition. Instead of the sigma-additive theory, the finitely additive theory, the general Jordan content and the general Riemann integration are used respectively. By a specialized probability model, the author obtains a precise interpretation strictly based on microeconomic methods of measurement. In particular, the meaning of an agent and of a coalition is explained and the Core-Walras equivalence is deduced. The author elaborates an elementary representation by broken continuous functions and the classical Riemann integral. A conjecture concerning the reduction of the dynamical case onto generalized differential equations is added.

Download or read book Interactive Fuzzy Optimization written by Mario Fedrizzi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The title of this book seems to indicate that the volume is dedicated to a very specialized and narrow area, i. e. , to the relationship between a very special type of optimization and mathematical programming. The contrary is however true. Optimization is certainly a very old and classical area which is of high concern to many disciplines. Engineering as well as management, politics as well as medicine, artificial intelligence as well as operations research, and many other fields are in one way or another concerned with optimization of designs, decisions, structures, procedures, or information processes. It is therefore not surprising that optimization has not grown in a homogeneous way in one discipline either. Traditionally, there was a distinct difference between optimization in engineering, optimization in management, and optimization as it was treated in mathematical sciences. However, for the last decades all these fields have to an increasing degree interacted and contributed to the area of optimization or decision making. In some respects, new disciplines such as artificial intelligence, descriptive decision theory, or modern operations research have facilitated, or even made possible the interaction between the different classical disciplines because they provided bridges and links between areas which had been developing and applied quite independently before. The development of optimiiation over the last decades can best be appreciated when looking at the traditional model of optimization. For a well-structured, Le.

Download or read book Regime Transitions Spillovers and Buffer Stocks written by Peter Stalder and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an econometric modeling approach for analysing macroeconomic disequilibria, focusing on the market for goods and labor and the spillovers between these markets transmitted through firms' decisions in the production sphere. The macroeconomic markets are treated as heterogeneous aggregates, consisting of a multitute of micro markets on which demand/supply ratios differ. Disequilibrium models have been under attack because they neglect that inventories enable firms to smooth production over the cycle, but the author argues that buffer stocks (output inventories, unfilled orders) should be accounted for within the disequilibrium framework, giving rise to a dynamic modification rather than a fundamental invalidation of rationing and spillover effects. The model developed in this book combines traditional Keynesian-type analysis with supply-side considerations and at the same time allows for micro-level imbalance. The resulting econometric structure is inherently nonlinear, reflecting that the response of economic activity to demand-side and supply-side factors varies over the cycle, depending on the aggregate mix of regimes. The model is estimated with quarterly data for Switzerland. Various simulation experiments clearly demonstrate the potential of this type of model for empirical business cycle analysis and policy discussions.

Download or read book On Model Uncertainty and its Statistical Implications written by Theo K. Dijkstra and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book problems related to the choice of models in such diverse fields as regression, covariance structure, time series analysis and multinomial experiments are discussed. The emphasis is on the statistical implications for model assessment when the assessment is done with the same data that generated the model. This is a problem of long standing, notorious for its difficulty. Some contributors discuss this problem in an illuminating way. Others, and this is a truly novel feature, investigate systematically whether sample re-use methods like the bootstrap can be used to assess the quality of estimators or predictors in a reliable way given the initial model uncertainty. The book should prove to be valuable for advanced practitioners and statistical methodologists alike.

Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics of an Open Economy written by Franz Gehrels and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The large aggregates in the economy - consumption, investment, production of the domestic and the international sectors, international capital flows, financial accumulation and indebtedness - are analysed in this book as problems in time-optimisation for enterprises and households. The effects of fiscal and monetary policies along with exchange-rate variation are examined, and their simultaneous use for stabilizing demand are found to be necessary. All household decisions on consumptions, savings, and financial disposition are conditioned by uncertainty, and similarly for firms, who make more complex simultaneous decisions on production, real investment, financing, and market strategy. The marginal efficiency-of-investment function derived from these decisions is fundamentally different from the marginal productivity of capital in the neoclassical sense. An economy which grows through the accumulation of capital, increase in labor supply, and technological progress is the framework in which all of these variables move. This codetermines the allocation of factors between domestic and international production, and the development of foreign trade. The growth both of the public debt and of international investment are treated in depth.

Download or read book Balanced Silverman Games on General Discrete Sets written by Gerald A. Heuer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Silverman game is a two-person zero-sum game defined in terms of two sets S I and S II of positive numbers, and two parameters, the threshold T > 1 and the penalty v > 0. Players I and II independently choose numbers from S I and S II, respectively. The higher number wins 1, unless it is at least T times as large as the other, in which case it loses v. Equal numbers tie. Such a game might be used to model various bidding or spending situations in which within some bounds the higher bidder or bigger spender wins, but loses if it is overdone. Such situations may include spending on armaments, advertising spending or sealed bids in an auction. Previous work has dealt mainly with special cases. In this work recent progress for arbitrary discrete sets S I and S II is presented. Under quite general conditions, these games reduce to finite matrix games. A large class of games are completely determined by the diagonal of the matrix, and it is shown how the great majority of these appear to have unique optimal strategies. The work is accessible to all who are familiar with basic noncooperative game theory.

Download or read book Nondifferentiable Optimization Motivations and Applications written by Vladimir F. Demyanov and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria, has been involved in research on nondifferentiable optimization since 1976. IIASA-based East-West cooperation in this field has been very productive, leading to many important theoretical, algorithmic and applied results. Nondifferentiable optimi zation has now become a recognized and rapidly developing branch of mathematical programming. To continue this tradition, and to review recent developments in this field, IIASA held a Workshop on Nondifferentiable Optimization in Sopron (Hungary) in September 1964. The aims of the Workshop were: 1. To discuss the state-of-the-art of nondifferentiable optimization (NDO), its origins and motivation; 2. To compare-various algorithms; 3. To evaluate existing mathematical approaches, their applications and potential; 4. To extend and deepen industrial and other applications of NDO. The following topics were considered in separate sessions: General motivation for research in NDO: nondifferentiability in applied problems, nondifferentiable mathematical models. Numerical methods for solving nondifferentiable optimization problems, numerical experiments, comparisons and software. Nondifferentiable analysis: various generalizations of the concept of subdifferen tials. Industrial and other applications. This volume contains selected papers presented at the Workshop. It is divided into four sections, based on the above topics: I. Concepts in Nonsmooth Analysis II. Multicriteria Optimization and Control Theory III. Algorithms and Optimization Methods IV. Stochastic Programming and Applications We would like to thank the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, particularly Prof. V. Kaftanov and Prof. A.B. Kurzhanski, for their support in organiz ing this meeting.

Download or read book Decision Making with Multiple Objectives written by Yacov Y. Haimes and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Sixth International Multiple-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Conference is one of a biennial series that serve as a forum for exchange of the latest information and new developments in this rapidly growing field. Participants are carefully chosen from among scholars and practitioners so that widely ranging perspectives and disciplines are represented; this insures the dissemination of valuable new know ledge to those scholars, policy-makers and industrial analysts who will best utilize and share it, both in developed and in third-world countries. The Sixth Internaitona1 MCDM Conference was held from June 4 to 8, 1984, at Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio. The Conference program reflects the evolution of the field from infancy through adolescence to maturity, as marked by the progression from single-objective modeling and optimization to multiple-objective deci sion making. Because the theoreticians, practitioners and students who attend these MCDM conferences necessarily have different needs and expectations, the program now offers fewer monologues and more panels, overview papers and tutorial sessions, focusing on case studies and other practical experiences.

Download or read book Are Policy Variables Exogenous written by Balazs Horvath and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1991-08-28 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the econometric implications of a policy-maker's learning. In a simple discrete model the policymaker maximizes the discounted sum of tax revenues subject to a constraint which involves an unknown parameter specifying the occurrence of Bayesian learning. An optimal balance needs to be found between maximizing current payoff and generating information which enhances the efficiency of maximization in subsequent periods. Learning is demonstrated to affect the exogeneity status of policy variables in small samples and to have implications analogous to the phenomenon in the focus of the Lucas critique. Active learning is proven to be a distinct cause of time inconsistency of optimal plane. It is argued that learning cannot be dismissed as a merely transitory source of these phenomena. A simulation exercise supplies quantitative evidence. Finally, the data generated are used to perform empirical exogeneity tests. Results show that the effect of Bayesian learning is empirically detectable. Learning is generally accepted as the driving force towards a rational expectations equilibrium with perfect information. In this context, the result on the loss of exogeneity of policy variables is an out-of-equilibrium econometric implication of the rational expectations hypothesis. This book is the first to explore the effect of an informational feedback on exogeneity.

Download or read book Optimal Firm Behaviour in the Context of Technological Progress and a Business Cycle written by Onno van Hilten and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis is a theoretical study of the optimal dynamic policies of a, to some extent, slowly adjusting firm that faces an exogeneously given technological progress and an exogeneously given business cycle. It belongs to the area of mathematical economics. It is intended to appeal to mathematical economists in the first place, economists in the second place and mathematicians in the third place. It entails an attempt to stretch the limits of the application of deterministic dynamic optimisation to economics, in particular to firm behaviour. A well-known· Dutch economist (and trained mathematician) recently stated in 1 a local university newspaper that mathematical economists give economics a bad reputation, since they formulate their problems from a mathematical point of view and they are only interested in technical, mathematical problems. At the same time, however, "profound as economists may be, when it comes to extending or modifying the existing theory to make it applicable to a certain economic problem, an understanding of optimal control theory (which is the mathematical theory used in this thesis, ovh) based solely on heuristic arguments will often turn out to be inadequate" (SydS

Download or read book Decision Processes in Economics written by Gianni Ricci and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the symposium on "Decision processes in Economics" which was held in Modena (Italy) on 9-10 October 1989. It coincided with the annual meeting of the italian group on Game Theory; the group is formed by economists, mathematicians, engineers and social scientists. One of the targets of the Meeting, and therefore of the book, is to create an opportunity for having together papers by scientists with an "optimal control" education and papers by theorists on refinement of equilibrium, on repeted games and other topics. These two modes of working on Games are quite different but we think that a unitary approch to Games can be given and this book is an attempt in this direction. Another important and updated issue which is emphisized in the book is the discussion of computation and efficiency of numerical methods in Games. Stochastic differential games are treated in the papers by Basar, Haurie -and Deissemberg. Basar considers a stochastic model of a conflict situation between the monetary policy maker (go vernment) and the responding agent (private sector). Because of asymmetry in the (stochastic) information available the Nash and the Stackelberg games become non standard stochastic diffe rential games. After the discussion of the conditions leading to a solution he provides a numerical example for the proposed game. Haurie considers a game where the observed state changes according to a stochastic jump process.

Download or read book Arbitrage Pricing of Contingent Claims written by Sigrid Müller and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-13 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Generalized Convexity written by Sandor Komlosi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Generalizations of the classical concept of a convex function have been proposed in various fields such as economics, management science, engineering, statistics and applied sciences during the second half of this century. In addition to new results in more established areas of generalized convexity, this book presents several important developments in recently emerging areas. Also, a number of interesting applications are reported.

Download or read book Fuzzy Multiple Objective Decision Making written by Young-Jou Lai and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last 25 years, the fuzzy set theory has been applied in many disciplines such as operations research, management science, control theory, artificial intelligence/expert system, etc. In this volume, methods and applications of crisp, fuzzy and possibilistic multiple objective decision making are first systematically and thoroughly reviewed and classified. This state-of-the-art survey provides readers with a capsule look into the existing methods, and their characteristics and applicability to analysis of fuzzy and possibilistic programming problems. To realize practical fuzzy modelling, it presents solutions for real-world problems including production/manufacturing, location, logistics, environment management, banking/finance, personnel, marketing, accounting, agriculture economics and data analysis. This book is a guided tour through the literature in the rapidly growing fields of operations research and decision making and includes the most up-to-date bibliographical listing of literature on the topic.