Download or read book Assessing the impacts of COVID 19 on household incomes and poverty in Myanmar A microsimulation approach written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-08-03 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With policy measures imposed by governments around the world to contain and prevent the spread of COVID 19, global and domestic economic activities and trade flows have been interrupted. The unexpected shocks of COVID 19 negatively affect not only Myanmar’s economy, but also the livelihoods of Myanmar households. This Working Paper assesses such impacts at the household level using a microsimulation model based on the Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS) conducted in 2015.

Download or read book Assessing the Impact on Household Incomes and Poverty of Declines in Remittances Due to COVID 19 written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-06-08 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Remittances are an important income source for the poor in Myanmar, particularly for low-income rural households. This policy note focuses on the likely impact on household income and poverty in Myanmar of declines in international and domestic remittances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We used a microsimulation model to do so.

Download or read book Synopsis Assessing the impacts of COVID 19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda A microsimulation approach written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-07-27 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Rwanda, as elsewhere, different types of households experienced the economic effects of COVID-19 differently. We use a microsimulation approach to show the importance of these differences to better understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status. Main results: Nationally, during the lockdown period between March and May 2020, the simulation results estimate declines in household income by 33 percent on average. The urban population experienced the largest declines, averaging 40 percent during this period. Unlike patterns seen with other shocks, middle-income households experienced the sharpest declines in income during the lockdown of an estimated 33 to 35 percent. The share of individuals falling into poverty was highest among those in urban, middle income (Ubudehe 2) households (27 percent). However, the greatest absolute number of individuals in poverty remained concentrated in rural areas during the lockdown. Poor individuals in the lowest expenditure quintile remain in the most severe poverty, with average expenditures during the lockdown estimated at 54 percent below the poverty line. Under both the fast and slow post-COVID economic recovery scenarios used in the simulations, household incomes nearly return to pre-COVID levels for all household categories by the end of 2020. However, these results do not capture the potential longterm impacts of the substantial shocks of the pandemic to incomes, assets, and individual wellbeing. These modeling results suggest that targeting should be a central component of the design and implementation of social protection programs and economic recovery policies to support a diverse set of beneficiaries. These beneficiaries include rural farming households and poor households, as well as nonagricultural household, and households in the middle expenditure quintiles.

Download or read book Poverty food insecurity and social protection during COVID 19 in Myanmar Combined evidence from a household telephone survey and micro simulations written by Headey, Derek D. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-11-10 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study assesses the welfare impacts of COVID-19 on households in Myanmar by combining recent high-frequency telephone survey evidence for two specific rural and urban geographies with national-level survey-based simulations designed to assess ex-ante impacts on poverty with differing amounts of targeted cash transfers. The first source of evidence – the COVID-19 Rural and Urban Food Security Survey (C19- RUFSS) – consists of four rounds of monthly data collected from a sample of over 2,000 households, all with young children or pregnant mothers, divided evenly between urban and peri-urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone. This survey sheds light on household incomes prior to COVID-19 (January 2020), incomes and food security status soon after the first COVID-19 wave (June 2020), the gradual economic recovery thereafter (July and August 2020), and the start of the second COVID-19 wave in September and October 2020. This survey gives timely and high-quality evidence on the recent welfare impacts of COVID-19 for two important geographies and for households that are nutritionally highly vulnerable to shocks due to the presence of very young children or pregnant mothers. However, the relatively narrow geographic and demographic focus of this telephone survey and the need for forecasting the poverty impacts of COVID-19 into 2021 prompt us to explore simulationbased evidence derived by applying parameter shocks to household models developed from nationally representative household survey data collected prior to COVID-19, the 2015 Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS). By realistically simulating the kinds of disruptions imposed on Myanmar’s economy by both international forces, e.g., lower agricultural exports and workers’ remittances, and domestic COVID-19 prevention measures. e.g., stay-at-home orders and temporary business closures, we not only can predict the impacts of COVID-19 on household poverty at the rural, urban, and national levels, but also can assess the further benefits to household welfare of social protection in the form of monthly household cash transfers of different magnitudes. Combined, these two sources of evidence yield insights on both the on-the-ground impacts of COVID-19 in recent months and the potential poverty reduction impacts of social protection measures in the coming year. We conclude the study with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.

Download or read book Assessing the impacts of COVID 19 on Myanmar s economy A Social Accounting Matrix SAM multiplier approach written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The measures taken by the Government of Myanmar to contain the transmission of COVID-19 are a necessary and appropriate response. In-depth analysis of measures of this magnitude on firms, households, government, and the economy as a whole is key to the design of policy interventions that can mitigate the economic losses and support a sustained and robust recovery. The economic losses to Myanmar’s economy in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic will be huge – a drop in production on the order of between 6.4 and 9.0 trillion Kyat – and likely will push the economy into a recession or lead to stagnant growth, at best, for the year. Although lockdown policies provide exemptions for most agricultural activities, linkages to other sectors indirectly affect the agri-food sector significantly. The agricultural sector is expected to contract by between 1.1 and 2.4 percent in 2020, and recovery will be slow. Closure of factories will have a large negative economic impact due to the strong linkage effects between manufacturing and upstream primary agriculture and downstream marketing services. Reopening the manufacturing sector is crucial for economic recovery in Myanmar.

Download or read book Poverty and food insecurity during COVID 19 Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar written by Headey, Derek D. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-10-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Myanmar had one of the lowest confirmed COVID-19 caseloads in the world in mid-2020 and was one of the few developing countries not projected to go into economic recession. However, macroeconomic projections are likely to be a poor guide to individual and household welfare in a fast-moving crisis that has involved disruption to an unusually wide range of sectors and livelihoods. To explore the impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on household poverty and coping strategies, as well as maternal food insecurity experiences, this study used a telephone survey conducted in June and July 2020 covering 2,017 mothers of nutritionally vulnerable young children in urban Yangon and rural villages of Myanmar’s Dry Zone. Stratifying results by location, livelihoods, and asset-levels, and using retrospective questions on pre-COVID-19 incomes and various COVID-19 impacts, we find that the vast majority of households have been adversely affected from loss of income and employment. Over three-quarters cite income/job losses as the main impact of COVID-19 – median incomes declined by one third and $1.90/day income-based poverty rose by around 27 percentage points between January and June 2020. Falling into poverty was most strongly associated with loss of employment (including migrant employment), but also with recent childbirth. The poor commonly coped with income losses through taking loans/credit, while better-off households drew down on savings and reduced non-food expenditures. Self-reported food insecurity experiences were much more common in the urban sample than in the rural sample, even though income-based and asset-based poverty were more prevalent in rural areas. In urban areas, around one quarter of respondents were worried about food quantities and quality, and around 10 percent stated that there were times when they had run out of food or gone hungry. Respondents who stated that their household had lost income or experienced food supply problems due to COVID-19 were more likely to report a variety of different food insecurity experiences. These results raise the concern that the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are much more serious and widespread than macroeconomic projections would suggest. Loss of employment and casual labor are major drivers of increasing poverty. Consequently, economic recovery strategies must emphasize job creation to revitalize damaged livelihoods. However, a strengthened social protection strategy should also be a critical component of economic recovery to prevent adversely affected households from falling into poverty traps and to avert the worst forms of food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly among households with pregnant women and young children. The recent second wave of COVID-19 infections in Myanmar from mid-August onwards makes the expansion of social protection even more imperative.

Download or read book Distributional Impacts of COVID 19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region written by Johannes G. Hoogeveen and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-12-20 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: COVID-19 is one of multiple crises to have hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the decade following the Arab Spring. War, oil price declines, economic slowdowns, and now a pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of a region characterized by high rates of unemployment, high levels of informality, and low annual economic growth. The economic costs of the pandemic are estimated at about US$227 billion, and fiscal support packages across MENA are averaging 2.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already weak fiscal balances and making a quick recovery challenging. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, MENA was the only region in the world experiencing increases in poverty and declines in life satisfaction. Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region investigates how COVID-19 changed the welfare of individuals and households in the region. It does so by relying on phone surveys implemented across the region and complements these with microsimulation exercises to assess the impact of COVID-19 on jobs, income, poverty, and inequality. The two approaches complement and corroborate each other's results, thereby making the findings more robust and richer. This report's results show that, in the short run, poverty rates in MENA will increase significantly and inequality will widen. A group of 'new poor' is likely to emerge that may have difficulty recovering from the economic consequences of COVID-19. The report adds value by analyzing newly gathered primary data, along with projections based on newly modeled micro- and macrosimulations, and by identifying key issues that policy makers should focus on to enable a quick, inclusive, and sustained economic recovery.

Download or read book Poverty and Food Insecurity During COVID 19 written by Derek Headey and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Myanmar had one of the lowest confirmed COVID-19 caseloads in the world in mid-2020 and was one of the few developing countries not projected to go into economic recession. However, macroeconomic projections are likely to be a poor guide to individual and household welfare in a fast-moving crisis that has involved disruption to an unusually wide range of sectors and livelihoods. To explore the impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on household poverty and coping strategies, as well as maternal food insecurity experiences, this study used a telephone survey conducted in June and July 2020 covering 2,017 mothers of nutritionally vulnerable young children in urban Yangon and rural villages of Myanmar's Dry Zone.Stratifying results by location, livelihoods, and asset-levels, and using retrospective questions on pre-COVID-19 incomes and various COVID-19 impacts, we find that the vast majority of households have been adversely affected from loss of income and employment. Over three-quarters cite income/job losses as the main impact of COVID-19 - median incomes declined by one third and $1.90/day income-based poverty rose by around 27 percentage points between January and June 2020. Falling into poverty was most strongly associated with loss of employment (including migrant employment), but also with recent childbirth. The poor commonly coped with income losses through taking loans/credit, while better-off households drew down on savings and reduced non-food expenditures. Self-reported food insecurity experiences were much more common in the urban sample than in the rural sample, even though income-based and asset-based poverty were more prevalent in rural areas. In urban areas, around one quarter of respondents were worried about food quantities and quality, and around 10 percent stated that there were times when they had run out of food or gone hungry. Respondents who stated that their household had lost income or experienced food supply problems due to COVID-19 were more likely to report a variety of different food insecurity experiences.These results raise the concern that the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are much more serious and widespread than macroeconomic projections would suggest. Loss of employment and casual labor are major drivers of increasing poverty. Consequently, economic recovery strategies must emphasize job creation to revitalize damaged livelihoods. However, a strengthened social protection strategy should also be a critical component of economic recovery to prevent adversely affected households from falling into poverty traps and to avert the worst forms of food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly among households with pregnant women and young children. The recent second wave of COVID-19 infections in Myanmar from mid-August onwards makes the expansion of social protection even more imperative.

Download or read book Assessing the impacts of COVID 19 on Myanmar s economy A Social Accounting Matrix SAM multiplier approach in Burmese written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-06-24 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book COVID 19 Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan Using SAM Multiplier Model written by Moeen, Muhammad Saad and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-01-23 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Download or read book Is poverty in Myanmar on the rise Poverty predictions from Google mobility data written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-05-04 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The severe economic impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s economy have been accentuated by the recent political instability. In this note, we present the most recent evidence on changes in Google consumer mobility data, since these are leading indicators of changes in household income, and use a previous econometric model linking mobility indices to survey-based household poverty to predict what may be happening to poverty in Myanmar in 2021.

Download or read book Mitigating poverty and undernutrition through social protection A simulation analysis of the COVID 19 pandemic in Bangladesh and Myanmar written by Ecker, Olivier and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-02-13 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in severe income losses, but little is known about its impacts on diets and nutritional adequacy, or the effectiveness of social protection interventions in mitigating dietary and nutritional impacts. We first assess the likely impacts of COVID-19 shocks in Bangladesh and Myanmar on poverty and food and nutrient consumption gaps. We then analyze the estimated mitigating effects of five hypothetical social protection interventions of a typical monetary value: (1) cash transfers; (2) in-kind transfers of common rice; (3) in-kind transfers of fortified rice enriched with multiple essential micronutrients; (4) vouchers for a diversified basket of rice and non-staple foods; and (5) food vouchers with fortified rice instead of common rice. The simulation results suggest modest effectiveness of the cash transfers for mitigating poverty increases and little effectiveness of all five transfers for preventing increasing food and nutrient consumption gaps among the poorest 40%. Rice fortification is, however, effective at closing key micronutrient consumption gaps and could be a suitable policy instrument for averting ‘hidden hunger’ during economic crises.

Download or read book COVID 19 impacts on smallholder farmers in Northern Shan State in Myanmar written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2021-12-22 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Report on how the first wave of COVID-19 impacted on smallholder farmers in northern Shan State in Myanmar. The study examines the interactions of reduced border trade, remittances and contracted labour markets on household food security, nutrition and land tenure. In turn, tenure insecurity in rural areas may deepen the effects of COVID-19, as most rural people struggle to sustain their livelihoods through access to land and other natural resources. This is relevant as many ethnic groups in northern Shan State continue to manage their land through customary tenure systems that are not fully recognized by state authorities.

Download or read book Impacts of COVID 19 on Myanmar s agri food system Evidence base and policy implications written by Researchers of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-10-09 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between April and October 2020, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Michigan State University (MSU), with support from the United States Agency of International Development (USAID) and the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT), have undertaken analyses of secondary data combined with regular telephone surveys of actors at all stages of Myanmar’s agri-food system in order to better understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the system. These analyses show that the volume of agribusiness has slowed considerably in Myanmar since COVID-19 restrictions were put in place. There is lower demand from farmers for agricultural inputs and mechanization services and lower volumes of produce traded, especially exports to neighboring countries whose borders are closed. All actors in the agri-food system are facing liquidity constraints and experiencing increased difficulties in both borrowing and recovering loans.

Download or read book Monitoring the impacts of COVID 19 in Myanmar Food vendors June and July 2020 survey round written by Minten, Bart and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-09-15 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is feared that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to widespread increases in global poverty and food insecurity and that these negative impacts will concentrate on the most vulnerable segments of the population (Swinnen and McDermott 2020). Although Myanmar, with one of the lowest COVID-19 infection rates in the world, has been spared the worst direct impacts of the disease, its economy remains highly vulnerable to the economic fallout of the contagion. A major contributor to increased food insecurity in Myanmar is the reduction of income among vulnerable populations (Diao et al. 2020), partly due to significant declines in remittances in the country (Diao and Wang 2020). In addition, disruptions to food marketing systems and changes in farm and consumer prices could also turn out to be major drivers of food insecurity. Changes in food markets – including supply of commodities and transport - and food and agricultural prices are an obvious concern to policy makers, given the importance of agricultural prices for the income of farmers and food prices for the purchasing power of consumers.

Download or read book Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID 19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model written by Moeen, Muhammad Saad and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-02-13 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Download or read book Community perceptions of the social and economic impacts of COVID 19 in Myanmar Insights from a National COVID 19 Community Survey NCCS June and July 2020 written by Lambrecht, Isabel and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-09-15 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Myanmar has been fortunate in thus far having one of the lowest caseloads of COVID-19 per population globally, with under 400 confirmed cases as of early August. However, as a developing economy still beset by high rates of poverty and vulnerability, Myanmar is highly susceptible to the economic and social disruptions stemming from COVID-19. These disruptions began with the closure of the Chinese border and the cessation of agricultural exports in late January, followed in February and March by further disruptions to trade, tourism, manufacturing, and remittances. However, an economic simulation analysis by Diao et al. (2020) suggests that the most severe economic impacts of COVID-19 stemmed from the temporary lockdown policies imposed in late March, which – though necessary to prevent the further spread of the virus – led to significant disruptions throughout the economy, including the agri-food sector and the rural economy. Phone survey evidence on agricultural and industrial value chains demonstrates that economic disruptions related to COVID-19 are pervasive and significant (Fang et al, 2020; Goeb, Boughton, and Maredia 2020; Goeb et al. 2020, Takeshima, Win, and Masias 2020a, 2020b). In aggregate, economic simulations predict a modest contraction in Myanmar’s gross domestic product in 2020 (compared to rapid growth forecasted in the absence of COVID-19), but a more significant reduction in household incomes at around 12 percent on average.