Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Download or read book Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance written by Ramesh Babu Thimmaraya and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2018-09-28 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book primarily focuses on the dynamic relationship between the financial and the economic systems of twelve major economies in the world.

Download or read book Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle written by Marzie Taheri Sanjani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-23 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture the impact of the financial crisis in a more direct and efficient way. The model fits US post-war macroeconomic data well, and shows that financial shocks play a greater role in explaining the volatility of macroeconomic variables than marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shocks.

Download or read book A Guide to IMF Stress Testing written by Ms.Li L Ong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-23 with total page 610 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF has had extensive involvement in the stress testing of financial systems in its member countries. This book presents the methods and models that have been developed by IMF staff over the years and that can be applied to the gamut of financial systems. An added resource for readers is the companion CD-Rom, which makes available the toolkit with some of the models presented in the book (also located at elibrary.imf.org/page/stress-test-toolkit).

Download or read book United States written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-02 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses key findings of the Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Insurance Core Principles on the United States. The assessment finds a reasonable level of observance of the Insurance Core Principles. There are many areas of strength, including at state level the powerful capacity for financial analysis with peer group review and challenge through the processes of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Lead state regulation is developing and a network of international supervisory colleges has been put in place. Key areas for development include the valuation standard of the state regulators, especially for life insurance, and group capital standards.

Download or read book Catching the Flu from the United States written by Filippo di Mauro and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-07-14 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Looking at historical cross-country interactions, this book examines the role of the US in the world economy. Illustrating that US shocks tend to have a global nature and that Monetary Union only partially shelters the Euro area from its external environment, the US should fully assume its responsibility, minimizing shock transmission.

Download or read book Decision Making for the Net Zero Transformation Considerations and New Methodological Approaches written by Mark Workman and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2024-02-01 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Special edition compiled in partnership with Frontiers sponsored by the Clean Air Task Force. The realisation of Net Zero by 2050 will require the ability for strategy developers, operational planners and decision makers to better manage uncertainty, complexity and emergence. The application of the orthodox set of decision support tools and processes that have been used to explore deep decarbonisation options to 2050 have blinded decision makers to uncertainty, complexity and emergence. Tools have often been used which are inappropriate to the types of decisions being made – a competency which has been glaringly revealed during the C-19 Pandemic. This Frontiers Research Topic will highlight the need for an interdisciplinary, mixed methods approach bringing together insights from modelling, decision science, psychology, anthropology, and sociology to form a compendium of current best practice for decision making for the net zero transformation and new research frontiers. Develop greater awareness amongst policymakers, practitioners and academics as to the importance of: • Understanding the nature of uncertainty when dealing with problems associated with the Net Zero Energy System Transformation; • Increasing importance of deliberative processes to map different value sets beyond least cost; • Acknowledging that decision making under uncertainty requires competency-based training leading to a full appreciation of the tasks at hand. Suggested areas within scope are listed in points 1-12 below. Authors are free to choose specific areas of interest, and to combine these where useful. In general, it will be useful to consider practical application of [ideas], e.g • development of `Use Cases’ and `Decision Making Contexts’ may be useful, e.g. National Govt establishing its Carbon Budget; Institution setting up its investment portfolio. • understanding of how decisions are being made within different jurisdictions, political cultures, and types of organizations (public/private). What is the role of `Decision Context' i.e. organisational decision-making structures, cultures, the role of zeitgeist and dominant narratives, or the relation between academic expertise and policy-makers. 1. Decision making from an end-to-end perspective and the need to take a holistic and interdisciplinary perspective [Editorial Cover Article]. 2. Gap between what policy makers and decision makers around net zero climate policy seek to address and what decision support tools can actually do. Why that gap is increasing (if it is)? 3. Understanding the nature of uncertainty when applying the relevant decision support tool and processes. Not all uncertainty can be addressed within the decision support tool itself. Role of optimism bias; potential role of least worst regret approaches etc 4. What different decision support tools can inform decision makers around net zero climate policy and need for a basket of tools. 5. Why parametric decision support tools and models are pre-eminent - the role of consolidative modelling and exploratory modelling. The inertia of modelling approaches: why it is so hard to break modelling paradigms? 6. What decision science informs us about how decisions are actually made - the importance of process, the role of transparency and deliberation with analysis. 7. Processes that address the biases identified in decision science and impact of identity politics on deliberative decision making. 8. Why decision making under deep uncertainty requires competency-based training, deep subject matter expertise and systemic knowledge. 9. Ministerial and policy making and the decision support requirements: US, EU, UK & China 10. The role of narratives and how uncertainty can be communicated to societal audiences. Storylines and other narrative approaches 11. How to develop participatory approaches allow multiple values, diversity of stakeholders in which climate communication and decision making exists in an iterative exchange with policy. We have started the journey e.g. the role of climate assemblies… what next? 12. Decision making under deep (climate) uncertainty by the financial sector We acknowledge the funding of the manuscripts published in this Research Topic by the Clean Air Task Force. We hereby state publicly that the Clean Air Task Force has had no editorial input in articles included in this Research Topic, thus ensuring that all aspects of this Research Topic are evaluated objectively, unbiased by any specific policy or opinion of the Clean Air Task Force.

Download or read book Business Cycles and Depressions written by David Glasner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.

Download or read book Kingdom of the Netherlands The Netherlands written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-06-18 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Netherlands has a large financial system. The system’s assets are roughly eight times the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Netherlands. Banks account for about one third of the financial system and 253 percent of GDP as of 2023Q2. Occupational pension funds are among the largest globally, at 142 percent of GDP. The insurance sector, in particular life insurance, has been undergoing consolidation, and stands at about 43 percent of GDP. Other financial institutions have grown significantly to surpass banks in size, reflecting responses to Brexit and financial innovation. The Dutch financial system is deeply interconnected domestically and with the rest of the world.

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Financial Regulation in Emerging Markets Banking written by Alexander M. Karminsky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes various approaches in modelling financial risks and compiling ratings. Focusing on emerging markets, it illustrates how risk assessment is performed and analyses the use of machine learning methods for financial risk assessment and measurement. It not only offers readers insights into the differences between emerging and developed markets, but also helps them understand the development of risk management approaches for banks. Highlighting current problems connected with the evaluation and modelling of financial risks in the banking sector of emerging markets, the book presents the methodologies applied to credit and market financial risks and integrated and payment risks, and discusses the outcomes. In addition it explores the systemic risks and innovations in banking and risk management by analyzing the features of risk measurement in emerging countries. Lastly, it demonstrates the aggregation of approaches to financial risk for emerging financial markets, comparing the experiences of various countries, including Russia, Belarus, China and Brazil.

Download or read book A Model Based Analysis of Spillovers written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-17 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates various channels of macrofinancial linkages and cross-border spillovers. We parameterize the model through an extensive calibration process, and provide a wide range of model properties and evaluation exercises. Simulation results suggest a prominent role of foreign demand shocks (euro area and global) in driving Poland’s output, inflation and interest rate dynamics, particularly in recent years. Our model also has the capability for medium-term conditional forecasting and policy analysis.

Download or read book Philippines Financial Sector Assessment Program Technical Note on Macroprudential Policy Framework and Tools written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-07 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP), together with the other financial sector regulators and the Department of Finance (DoF), made significant progress in developing a framework for macroprudential supervision. The BSP plays a central role as the bank and payment system supervisor, as well as macroprudential authority with with its financial stability mandate obtained in 2019, and the chair of inter-agency coordination mechanisms (Financial Stability Coordination Council, FSCC). The FSCC was established in 2011 as a voluntary interagency body (without decision-making powers) to coordinate macroprudential policies and crisis management and include the BSP, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), Insurance Commission (IC), Philippine Deposit Insurance Commission (PDIC) and the DoF. Within the BSP, a financial stability “unit” (OSRM, established in 2017) works on macroprudential analysis and policy preparation. BSP’s Financial Stability Policy Committee (FSPC), a Monetary Board (MB) subcommittee established in 2020, decides on macroprudential issues, while policy decision making on monetary policy and financial sector supervision takes place in the MB.

Download or read book Policy Analysis in Turkey written by Güneş Ertan and published by Policy Press. This book was released on 2018-06-06 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides the first comprehensive overview of the state of policy analysis in Turkey for an international audience. Noting Turkey’s traditionally strong, highly centralised state, the book documents the evolution of policy analysis in the country, providing an in-depth review of the context, constraints, and dominant modes of policy analysis performed by both state and non-state actors. The book examines the role of committees, experts, international actors, bureaucrats as well as public opinion in shaping policy analysis in the country through their varying ideas, interests and resources. In doing so, it presents the complex decision-making mechanisms that vary significantly among policy-making actors and institutions, documenting the key, yet unexamined, aspects of policy analysis in Turkey. It will be a valuable resource for those studying policy analysis within Turkey and as a comparison with other volumes in the International Library of Policy Analysis Series.

Download or read book Handbook of Family Theories written by Mark A. Fine and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-03-05 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Organized by content areas rather than by theory, this comprehensive, accessible handbook helps readers gain greater insight into how key theories have impacted today’s family research. Most competing books, organized by theory, do not provide a strong sense of the links between theory and research. Using the 2000 and 2010 decade-in-review issues of the Journal of Marriage and Family as a resource, the book addresses the most important topics impacting family studies research today. The introductory chapter, written by the editors, provides an overview of the role family theories have had on the field. This chapter is followed by 23 others on family-related content areas written by renowned scholars in the field. The book is organized around the most important domains in the field: parenting and parent-child relationships, romantic relationships, conflict and aggression, structural variation and transitions, demographic variations, and families and extra-familial institutions. Each of the contributors describes how theory has been used to generate new knowledge in the field and suggests future directions for how theory may be used to extend our knowledge base. The book helps readers acquire a working knowledge of the key family science theories, findings, and issues and understand how researchers make use of these theories in their empirical efforts. To maximize accessibility, each of the renowned contributors addresses a common set of issues in their chapter: • Introduction to the content area • Review of the key topics, issues, and findings • A description of each of the major theories used to study that particular content area • Limitations of the theories • Suggestions for better use of the theories and/or new theoretical advances • Conclusions about future theoretical developments. An ideal text for graduate and/or advanced undergraduate family theories courses, this book’s unique organization also lends itself to use in content-based family studies/science courses taught in family studies, human development, psychology, sociology, communication, education, and nursing. Due to its comprehensive and current approach, the book also appeals to scholars and researchers in these areas.

Download or read book Global Financial Transmission into Sub Saharan Africa A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis written by Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-29 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sub-Saharan African countries are exposed to spillovers from global financial variables, but the impact on economic activity is more significant in more financially developed economies. Generalized impulse responses from a GVAR exercise demonstrate how the CBOE volatility index (VIX) and credit conditions around the globe impact a subset of sub-Saharan African economies and regions. The estimated relationships suggest that the effect of global uncertainty is more pervasive in exports, with the impact on economic and lending activities being mixed. The channels of transmission include the effects of global financial variables on commodity prices and on trading-partner’s macroeconomic and financial variables. The analysis suggests that shocks to credit conditions in the euro area and the U.S. have not significantly affected local lending conditions or economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa during 1991-2011, except perhaps in South Africa.