Download or read book Assessing Reserve Adequacy Specific Proposals written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reserves have a central place in the policy tool kit of most economies, providing insurance against shocks. In conjunction with sound policies, they can help reduce the likelihood of balance of payment crises and preserve economic and financial stability. Reserves, however, can result from both precautionary and non-precautionary policy objectives and institutional settings. While they can bring several important benefits, reserve holdings can sometimes be costly. This paper brings together recent Fund work on reserve adequacy issues aiming to strengthen their discussion in bilateral surveillance. Despite the ongoing debate on reserve issues, there is little consensus about how to assess reserve holdings in different economies, even though this is an important aspect of a member’s external stability assessment. The work stream of which this paper is part aims to fill this gap by outlining a framework for discussing reserve adequacy issues in different economies. In this regard, the paper also forms part of the Fund’s response to the 2012 IEO evaluation of the Fund’s advice related to international reserves, which recommended, inter alia, that assessments of international reserves in bilateral surveillance reports should be more detailed and reflect country circumstances. To this end, the paper proposes that, where warranted, individual country Article IV reports include a fuller discussion of the authorities’ stated objectives (precautionary and non-precautionary) for holding reserves, an assessment of the reserve needs for precautionary purposes, and a discussion of the cost of reserves. The aim would be to ensure evenhandedness so that countries with similar circumstances are assessed in similar ways, while allowing the depth and emphasis of this discussion to vary depending on country conditions and needs

Download or read book Guidance Note on the Assessment of Reserve Adequacy and Related Considerations written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-06 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: operational guidance to staff on reserve adequacy discussions in the IMF’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance. It is based on the views presented in the policy paper Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Specific Proposals and the related Board discussion. The note addresses key issues related to Staff’s advice on the assessment of the adequacy of reserves and related items, including answering the following questions: What is the expected coverage of reserve issues at different stages of the bilateral surveillance process (Policy Note, mission, and Staff Report)? Which reserve adequacy tools best fit different economies based on their financial maturity, economic flexibility, and market access? What do possible reserve needs in mature markets relate to, and how can their adequacy be assessed? How can reserve adequacy discussions for emerging and deepening financial markets be tailored and applied to better evaluate reserve levels in: (i) commodity-intensive economies; (ii) countries with capital flow management measures (CFMs); and (iii) partially and fully dollarized economies? What reserve adequacy considerations hold for countries with limited access to capital markets? How can metrics for these economies be tailored to evaluate their reserve needs? How should potential drains on reserves be covered? What are the various measures of the cost of reserves for countries with and without market access?

Download or read book Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups written by Ms.Rina Bhattacharya and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-09 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes a fresh look at the determinants of reserves holding with the aim of highlighting similarities and differences in the motives for holding reserves among emerging markets (EMs), advanced economies (AEs), and low-income countries (LICs). We apply two panel estimation techniques: fixed effects (FE) and common correlated effects pooled mean group (CCEPMG). FE regression results suggest that precautionary savings motives, both current account- and capital account-related, are generally the most important determinants of reserves holding across country groups and that their importance has increased for AEs and LICs since the global financial crisis while receding for EMs. Mercantilist motives matter mostly for EMs. Intertemporal motives have been gaining importance everywhere over time. The CCEPMG results confirm the importance of precautionary motives and suggest that current account motives matter only for EMs and LICs and capital account motives matter for all groups while being more important for EMs in both the shortand long runs. The CCEPMG results also point to the importance of taking into account unobserved common factors that affect coefficient estimates and the dynamic process through which reserves adjust to changes. At about 0.6, the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium implies that more than half of the gap between actual and desired reserve holdings is closed within a year.

Download or read book Dominica written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-20 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Dominica’s recovery from Tropical Storm Erika (August 2015) has been slower than anticipated, with output growth of 1 percent in 2016, dragged down by a storm-related decline in manufacturing. Moreover, capacity constraints and unfavorable weather slowed public investment more than anticipated. Despite ample liquidity, bank credit to the private sector remains weak, although this is in part relieved by growing lending by credit unions. Growth is projected to accelerate to above 3 percent in 2017–18 on the back of a pickup in public investment and several large-scale private projects with citizenship-by-investment and grant financing.

Download or read book Dominica written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-07-05 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economy is recovering gradually but faces headwinds from the cost-of-living crisis, more limited policy space, and more frequent and costly climate shocks. Tourism rebounded in the second half of last year, but scarring effects from the pandemic, on the heels of large natural disasters, could prove significant considering lengthy school closures, the deep GDP contraction and associated erosion of fiscal space. Dominica’s climate adaptation and modernization agenda is driving growth, with priority being given to construction of a geothermal energy plant and a new international airport.

Download or read book Union of Comoros written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-08-14 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Union of Comoros’ Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). Reflecting the large budgetary and external financing gaps arising from emergency assistance and reconstruction needs, the authorities are seeking financial assistance under the RCF and RFI exogenous shock windows. Comoros’ qualification is based on urgent balance of payments needs following a severe natural disaster. The authorities shared staff’s main policy recommendations. Efforts to address the cyclone’s impact will need to focus on mobilizing external financing, creating fiscal space by containing the wage bill, and spending mobilized resources in a well-targeted and timely manner. The authorities plan to address financial sector weaknesses, including by finding a solution for the critical situation of the postal bank, closely monitoring nonperforming loans, and addressing obstacles in the judicial system to facilitate the use of collateral and promote lending.

Download or read book The Gambia written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-28 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that The Gambia has experienced large balance of payments and fiscal imbalances, caused by persistent policy slippages in recent years and financial difficulties in public enterprises. The IMF supported the authorities’ efforts through a Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement in early April 2015 and a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). However, major policy slippages have occurred since the RCF disbursement, pushing the SMP off track and worsening the outlook considerably. In light of the elevated level of public debt, the government should prioritize infrastructure investments that help address poverty and improve the business environment. The authorities are encouraged to continue their efforts to improve supervision capacity to enhance financial stability.

Download or read book Ecuador written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-21 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent. The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends while the higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador. The paper also develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections. The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was. A simple growth accounting exercise is used to decompose Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation; capital and labor, and total factor productivity. The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth. The paper also explores different vector autoregression models to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador.

Download or read book Central African Economic and Monetary Community CEMAC written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-24 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the common policies needed for the member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). CEMAC growth was subdued in 2015. It slowed to 1.6 percent, from 4.9 percent in 2014, because of reduced public investment and lower oil production. Policies to counter the oil-price shock need to focus on fiscal consolidation and real-economy reforms. In the wake of the oil-price shock, monetary financing has been the primary response tool. Fiscal policy coordination among members should be strengthened, and fiscal discipline enforcement is needed. Real-economy reforms, focusing on improving the business climate and boosting private investment, are also needed to preserve macroeconomic stability.

Download or read book St Kitts and Nevis written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-31 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth rebounded strongly in 2022 despite global headwinds. GDP is estimated to have grown by 9 percent in 2022 after contracting 14.5 percent in 2020 and 0.9 percent in 2021. The lifting of all COVID-related travel restrictions in August sparked a strong rebound in the tourism sector and across the economy. Yet economic activity is not back to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation picked up, increasing from 1.9 percent in 2021 to 3.8 percent in 2022, reaching the highest level in a decade. The authorities’ proactive policy response, facilitated by the fiscal buffers accumulated from a decade of prudent fiscal policy, helped shelter domestic prices from high global energy and food prices. These measures nonetheless took a heavy toll on fiscal accounts in 2022. The primary balance ex-CBI revenue and land buybacks, an indicator of the underlying fiscal stance, deteriorated to a deficit of 17 percent of GDP (vs. 15 percent in 2021). Large CBI inflows in 2022 helped finance this expansion, keeping public debt below the ECCU regional target of 60 percent of GDP. The current account deficit is estimated to have narrowed in 2022, supported by tourism recovery.

Download or read book Assessing Reserve Adequacy Further Considerations written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-14 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reserves remain a critical liquidity buffer for most countries. They are generally associated with lower crisis risks (crisis prevention) as well as space for authorities to respond to shocks (crisis mitigation). While other instruments, such as official credit lines and bilateral swap lines, are also external buffers, for most countries they principally act as a complement to their official reserves. For countries with sound fundamentals and a good policy framework, reserves provide policy makers with considerable space to respond to transitory shocks. However, this space diminishes as fundamentals deteriorate and the existence of adequate reserves does not, by itself, eliminate the risk of market pressures.

Download or read book Islamic Republic of Mauritania written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-16 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights a continued challenging external environment for Mauritania, with low and volatile metal prices. A steep decline in iron ore prices in 2014–15 took away half of exports, widened the fiscal deficit, put pressure on reserves, and exposed bank vulnerabilities. In response, the authorities adjusted the budget significantly in 2016, allowed the exchange rate to adjust, and mobilized foreign grants and loans. These efforts contributed to reducing external imbalances and maintaining macroeconomic stability. The authorities are now strengthening bank supervision and are preparing a national strategy for accelerated and inclusive growth for 2016–30, including structural reforms and a large-scale, foreign-financed infrastructure investment program to support jobs, growth, and diversification.

Download or read book Grenada 2022 Article IV Consultation Press Release Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for Grenada written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-05-10 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Grenada’s economy was hit hard by the pandemic, with a decline in real output of 14 percent in 2020 from both a collapse of tourism-related activities and the suspension of in-person classes at Saint George’s University (SGU). Growth in 2021 is estimated to have partly recovered to 5.6 percent, driven by construction and agriculture. The authorities’ policy response helped mitigate the pandemic’s impact through containment measures, increased health and social spending, and an expanded public investment program (including to build resilience to natural disasters). Central government debt rose to 70 percent of GDP in 2021 (from 59 percent in 2019) and the external position has worsened. The financial sector has so far weathered the crisis well.

Download or read book Republic of Serbia written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-22 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Republic of Serbia’s 2019 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument. Serbia’s macroeconomic performance, supported by the Policy Coordination Instrument, has been strong. Growth has been robust, public debt is declining, employment is rising, the financial sector is sound, and inflation is low. Strong fiscal performance continues, facilitating higher capital spending and a reduction of the tax burden on labor as well as faster debt reduction. Continued strong program implementation and determined structural reforms are important to address the challenges and accelerate income convergence with the EU. Fiscal performance has been strong, while important reforms took place toward modernization of the tax administration and privatization of the largest state-owned bank. Stronger commitment to the implementation of planned structural reforms is needed to boost potential growth and improve the private investment climate. However, Serbia remains vulnerable to spillovers from external developments, including weaker-than-expected growth in key trading partners.

Download or read book Policy Space Index Short Term Response to a Catastrophic Event written by José Ferrer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-17 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What policy space does a country have for a short-term response to a catastrophic event? To quantify this space, the paper proposes a policy space index. The index combines a quantitative, albeit relatively limited and narrow, fiscal space concept with the indicators of nominal monetary space and reserve space. Each nominal policy space indicator is then adjusted for individual country’s institutional features, such as the status of its currency, income group, access to capital markets, debt distress level, and the exchange rate regime. The final policy space index is derived as a composite of the three nominal policy space indicators, each adjusted for five institutional features. This index is different from the approach to measure fiscal space at the IMF and requires more work before it can be used operationally. The proposed index allows measuring the overall policy space in each country directly in percent of GDP. By way of illustration, the paper applies the index to the Covid-19 crisis.

Download or read book Optimal Reserves in Financially Closed Economies written by Mr.Olivier Jeanne and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financially closed economies insure themselves against current-account shocks using international reserves. We characterize the optimal management of reserves using an open-economy model of precautionary savings and emphasize several results. First, the welfare-based opportunity cost of reserves differs from the measures often used by practitioners. Second, under plausible calibrations the model is consistent with the rule of thumb that reserves should be close to three months of imports. Third, simple linear rules can capture most of the welfare gains from optimal reserve management. Fourth, policymakers should place more emphasis on how to use reserves in response to shocks than on the reserve target itself.

Download or read book Suriname written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-07 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper mainly discusses the IMF-supported program aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability and confidence in Suriname’s economy. The proposed 24-month Stand-By Arrangement (265 percent of quota, or SDR 342 million) aims to support Suriname’s adjustment to the fall in commodity export prices and restore external and fiscal sustainability. It foresees an improvement of the fiscal balance by 7.4 percent of GDP, which would reverse the rise in the government debt-to-GDP ratio; restore foreign reserves to adequate levels—four months of imports; and reflect a monetary policy stance calibrated to reduce inflation to single digits. It also strengthens the foundations for private-sector growth.