Download or read book Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth Role of Measurement Error in the U S Current Population Survey written by Mr.Ippei Shibata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-26 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

Download or read book Are Labor Market Indicatos Telling the Truth written by Ippei Shibata and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to businesscycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

Download or read book Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth Role of Measurement Error in the U S Current Population Survey written by Mr.Ippei Shibata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-26 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

Download or read book Measuring Underemployment written by Clifford C. Clogg and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring Underemployment: Demographic Indicators for the United States discusses the Labor Utilization Framework of Hauser and Sullivan, which is a measurement scheme that posits the existence of three dimensions, or forms, of underemployment— time, income, and skill-utilization. This book describes the conceptual groundwork, operational measurement, and implications of the Labor Utilization Framework on the way the labor force aggregates. The essential elements of the socio-demographic theory of the labor force with the logical unity provided by both the Labor Utilization Framework and the specific methodologies adopted for its analysis are also elaborated. This text likewise covers the methods for latent structure analysis and cohort analysis, including the theory of frictional underemployment; “class structure governing the distribution of labor market rewards; tempo of social change in the labor force; “productive value of a population; and “true dependency on productive labor. This publication is a good source for students and researchers concerned with different labor force topics that can be plausibly studied from the viewpoint of the Hauser-Sullivan framework.

Download or read book Returning to Full Employment written by Marc Labonte and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report analyzes recent trends in labor market indicators during the current economic recovery, with a particular focus on the contrast between the unemployment rate and other labor market indicators. It reviews studies seeking to determine how much of the decline in the labor force participation rate is caused by the recession and how much is caused by structural factors (such as the aging of the labor force). It then considers whether the economy might reach full employment at a higher rate of unemployment compared to recent expansions.

Download or read book Current Labor Market Developments written by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions written by Federal Reserve Board and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2015-12-24 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market conditions index (LMCI) is a useful tool for gauging the change in labor market conditions. In addition, the model provides a way to organize discussions of the signal value of different labor market indicators in situations when they might be sending diverse signals. The model takes the greatest signal from private payroll employment and the unemployment rate. Other influential indicators include the insured unemployment rate, consumers' perceptions of job availability, and help-wanted advertising. Through the lens of the LMCI, labor market conditions have improved at a moderate pace of over the past several years, albeit with some notable variation along the way. In addition, from the perspective of the model, the unemployment rate declined a bit faster over the past two years than was consistent with the other indicators.

Download or read book Public hearings before the National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics written by United States. National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations written by Peter A.G. van Bergeijk and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-06-05 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This informative book reveals the pervasive nature of large inaccuracies in economic statistics. Drawing on numerous real-world examples including case studies from advanced and developing countries, Peter van Bergeijk presents profound insights into how downplaying these errors undermines the scientific rigour of economic analysis and outlines how to manage uncertainty in economic analysis moving forward.

Download or read book How Tight are U S Labor Markets written by Alex Domash and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the outset of the Covid-19 pandemic, labor market indicators that traditionally move together have been sending different signals about the degree of slack in the U.S. labor market. While some indicators on the supply-side, such as the prime-age employment-to-population ratio, suggest that there is still some slack in the labor market, other indicators on the demand-side, such as the job vacancy rate and the quits rate, imply that the labor market is already very tight. In light of these divergent signals, this paper compares alternative labor market indicators as predictors of wage inflation. Using national time series and state cross-section data, we find (i) unemployment is a better predictor of wage inflation than non-employment and (ii) vacancy rates and quit rates have substantial predictive power for wage inflation. We highlight the fact that vacancy and quit rates currently experienced in the United States correspond to a degree of labor market tightness previously associated with sub-2 percent unemployment rates. Finally, we show that predicted firm-side unemployment has dominant explanatory power with respect to subsequent inflation. Our results, along with a cursory analysis of labor force participation information, suggest that labor market tightness is likely to contribute significantly to inflationary pressure in the United States for some time to come.

Download or read book How the Government Measures Unemployment written by United States. Bureau of Labor Statistics and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monthly Labor Review written by and published by . This book was released on 1990-07 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Publishes in-depth articles on labor subjects, current labor statistics, information about current labor contracts, and book reviews.

Download or read book Fighting Unemployment written by David R. Howell and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2004-12-02 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With much of Europe plagued by high levels of unemployment, it has become widely accepted that the culprit is labor market rigidity and that the prescription can only be labor market deregulation: lower wages, higher earnings inequality, greater decentralization in bargaining, less generous unemployment benefits, more hiring flexibility, and less job security. Fighting Unemployment critically assesses this free market orthodoxy. With cross-country statistical analyses and country case studies, leading economists from seven North American and European countries contend that this conventional wisdom has greatly exaggerated the extent to which the unemployment problem can be blamed on protective labor market institutions and that the case for dismantling the welfare state to fight unemployment rests more on free market ideology than on the empirical evidence. The larger message of this book is that fundamentally different labor market models - ranging from the 'American Model' to the much more regulated and coordinated Scandinavian systems - are compatible with low unemployment.

Download or read book Proceedings of Interstate Conference on Labor Statistics written by and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Comparing Labor Market Indicators from the CPS and ACS written by Wayne Vroman and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Why Wages Don t Fall during a Recession written by Truman F. BEWLEY and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A deep question in economics is why wages and salaries don't fall during recessions. This is not true of other prices, which adjust relatively quickly to reflect changes in demand and supply. Although economists have posited many theories to account for wage rigidity, none is satisfactory. Eschewing "top-down" theorizing, Truman Bewley explored the puzzle by interviewing--during the recession of the early 1990s--over three hundred business executives and labor leaders as well as professional recruiters and advisors to the unemployed. By taking this approach, gaining the confidence of his interlocutors and asking them detailed questions in a nonstructured way, he was able to uncover empirically the circumstances that give rise to wage rigidity. He found that the executives were averse to cutting wages of either current employees or new hires, even during the economic downturn when demand for their products fell sharply. They believed that cutting wages would hurt morale, which they felt was critical in gaining the cooperation of their employees and in convincing them to internalize the managers' objectives for the company. Bewley's findings contradict most theories of wage rigidity and provide fascinating insights into the problems businesses face that prevent labor markets from clearing. Table of Contents: Acknowledgments 1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Time and Location 4. Morale 5. Company Risk Aversion 6. Internal Pay Structure 7. External Pay Structure 8. The Shirking Theory 9. The Pay of New Hires in the Primary Sector 10. Raises 11. Resistance to Pay Reduction 12. Experiences with Pay Reduction 13. Layoffs 14. Severance Benefits 15. Hiring 16. Voluntary Turnover 17. The Secondary Sector 18. The Unemployed 19. Information, Wage Rigidity, and Labor Negotiations 20. Existing Theories 21. Remarks on Theory 22. Whereto from Here? Notes References Index Reviews of this book: In Why Wages Don't Fall During A Recession, [Truman Bewley] tackles one of the oldest, and most controversial, puzzles in economics: why nominal wages rarely fall (and real wages do not fall enough) when unemployment is high. But he does so in a novel way, through interviews with over 300 businessmen, union leaders, job recruiters and unemployment counsellors in the north-eastern United States during the early 1990s recession...Mr. Bewley concludes that employers resist pay cuts largely because the savings from lower wages are usually outweighed by the cost of denting workers' morale: pay cuts hit workers' standard of living and lower their self-esteem. Falling morale raises staff turnover and reduces productivity...Mr. Bewley's theory has some interesting implications...[and] has a ring of truth to it. --The Economist Reviews of this book: This contribution to the growing literature on behavioral macroeconomics threatens to disturb the tranquil state of macroeconomic theory that has prevailed in recent years...Bewley's argument will be hard for conventional macroeconomists to ignore, partly because of the extraordinary thoroughness and honesty with which he evidently conducted his investigation, and the sheer volume of evidence he provides...Although Bewley's work will not settle the substantive debates related to wage rigidity, it is likely to have a profound influence on the way macroeconomists construct models. In particular, the concepts of morale, fairness, and money illusion are almost certain to play a big role in macroeconomic theory. His demonstration that there exist in reality simple, robust behavioral patters that cannot plausibly be founded on traditional maximizing behabior also raises the prospect of a more empirically oriented, more behavioral macroeconomics in the future. --Peter Howitt, journal of Economic Literature Reviews of this book: I think any scholar interested in labour markets and wage determination should read this well-written, lively, and highly stimulating book...[It] provides a fresh view and a lot of complementary background knowledge about how experienced people in the field see the employment relationship and what is actually crucial. Knowledge of this sort is all too rare in economics, and Truman Bewley's truly impressive study can serve as a role model for future investigations. --Simon G'chter, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics To call this book a breath of fresh air is an understatement. The direct insights are fascinating, and Truman Bewley's use of them is sharp and insightful. Labor economists and macroeconomists have a lot to think about. --Robert M. Solow, Nobel Laureate, Institute Professor of Economics, Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Truman Bewley set out to conduct a handful of interviews with business executives to gain some theoretical inspiration, and his project blossomed into over 300 interviews with business people, labor leaders and consultants. He is truly the accidental interviewer of economics. Time and again, he found that workers behave like people, not atomistic, selfish economic agents. His insights will engage and enrage economic theorists and empiricists for years to come. --Alan Krueger, Bendheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Princeton University

Download or read book How are Youth Faring in the Labor Market written by Jean Farès and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a new standardized micro database for a large set of developing countries to (1) describe the patterns of labor market outcomes for youth, and (2) explain the contributions of supply and demand factors to youth outcomes. The paper shows that youth face various difficulties in transitioning to work. This is reflected in their relatively higher unemployment rate, higher incidence of low paying or unpaid work, and a large share of youth who are neither working nor in school. This is especially true for young girls who are found outside the labor market, some engaged in home production. Finally, the paper also finds that cross-country estimates show that changes in the youth relative cohort size is unlikely to have a large effect on how youth are faring in the labor market.