Download or read book Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary Theory Policy Implications and Some Evidence written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets included in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsetting the contractionary impact of appreciation. We explore the implications theoretically and empirically, and find support for the key predictions in the data.
Download or read book Are Capital Inflows Expansionary Or Contractionary Theory Policy Implications and Some Evidence written by Olivier J. Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging-market policymakers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets included in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsetting the contractionary impact of appreciation. We explore the implications theoretically and empirically and find support for the key predictions in the data.
Download or read book Are Capital Inflows Expansionary Or Contractionary written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Are Capital Inflows Expansionary Or Contradictionary written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary Theory Policy Implications and Some Evidence written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets included in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsetting the contractionary impact of appreciation. We explore the implications theoretically and empirically, and find support for the key predictions in the data.
Download or read book The Expansionary Lower Bound Contractionary Monetary Easing and the Trilemma written by Paolo Cavallino and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-11-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a theory of the limits to monetary policy independence in open economies arising from the interaction between capital flows and domestic collateral constraints. The key feature of our theory is the existence of an “Expansionary Lower Bound” (ELB), defined as an interest rate threshold below which monetary easing becomes contractionary. The ELB can be positive, thus acting as a more stringent constraint than the Zero Lower Bound. Furthermore, the ELB is affected by global monetary and financial conditions, leading to novel international spillovers and crucial departures from Mundell’s trilemma. We present two models under which the ELB may arise, the first featuring carry-trade capital flows and the second highlighting the role of currency mismatches.
Download or read book Capital Flow Deflection written by Paolo Giordani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-08 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the coordination problem among borrowing countries imposing controls on capital infl ows. In a simple model of capital flows and controls, we show that inflow restrictions distort international capital flows to other countries and that, in turn, such capital flow deflection may lead to a policy response. We then test the theory using data on inflow restrictions and gross capital inflows for a large sample of developing countries between 1995 and 2009. Our estimation yields strong evidence that capital controls deflect capital flows to other borrowing countries with similar economic characteristics. Notwithstanding these strong cross-border spillover effects, we do not find evidence of a policy response.
Download or read book Preemptive Policies and Risk Off Shocks in Emerging Markets written by Ms. Mitali Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-01-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996–2020 at monthly frequency, we document that countries with preemptive policies in place during the five year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during the shock compared to countries which did not have such preemptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper Tantrum and COVID-19 as risk-off shocks. Our identification relies on a difference-in-differences methodology with country fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex-post. We control the effects of other policies, such as monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions (FXI), easing of inflow CFMs and tightening of outflow CFMs that are used in response to the risk-off shocks. By reducing the impact of risk-off shocks on countries’ funding costs and exchange rate volatility, preemptive policies enable countries’ continued access to international capital markets during troubled times.
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Download or read book SHOCKS AND CAPITAL FLOWS written by GASTON. SAHAY GELOS (RATNA.) and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023 with total page 2040 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Asian Monetary Policy Forum The Insights For Central Banking written by Steven J Davis and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2021-06-03 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Monetary Authority of Singapore, Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research, University of Chicago Booth Business School, and National University of Singapore Business School have organised the Asian Monetary Policy Forum (AMPF) annually since 2014. The Forum brings together eminent academics, policymakers and private sector economists to deliberate pressing monetary policy issues particularly relevant for Asian countries.This volume collects the inaugural speech and commissioned papers from the past Forums from 2014 to 2020. The chapters cover a range of topics that have assumed importance in the global monetary and financial system over the past twenty years. These include the efficacy of traditional monetary policy frameworks amid synchronised global financial flows, the challenges presented by the US dollar dominance, and the optimality of central banks' use of a broader set of policy instruments within an integrated policy framework. Policymakers, practitioners, students and academicians will be able to draw from this volume useful insights to understand these complex policy challenges.
Download or read book Global Financial Flows in the Pre and Post global Crisis Periods written by Yoichi Matsubayashi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-03 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers many aspects of excessive expansion of cross-border capital flows underlying the global financial crises that occurred in succession in the form of the subprime mortgage crisis, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the European debt crisis. Obtaining a broader picture of financial flows at the global level from various perspectives is essential to comprehensively understand the fundamental causes for a series of global-scale financial crises and to formulate effective policy responses in the future. The topics addressed here include a basic concept and overview of global liquidity in a broad sense, domestic and international credit activities of financial institutions in both advanced and emerging countries, and global demand for US dollars. Offshore bond issuance in BRICs countries, including its implications for the Chinese shadow banking sector, uncovered interest rate parity puzzle, and related policies such as capital controls are covered as well. This book is highly recommended to readers who seek an in-depth and up-to-date integrated overview of the dynamics of today’s globalized financial markets.
Download or read book The Global Financial Cycle Quantities Versus Prices written by Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-07-19 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We quantify the importance of the Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) in domestic credit and various local asset prices and compare it with that in capital flows. Using 2000-2021 data for 76 economies and a simple methodology, we find that each respective series’ common factor and conventional US GFCy-drivers together typically explain about 30 percent of the variation in domestic credit, up to 40 percent in stock market returns, about 60 percent in house prices, and more than 75 percent in interest rates and government bond spreads. These median estimates much exceed the 25 percent for capital flows. Our findings help to put the existing literature into context and have important implications for economic and financial stability policies, notably for the usage of quantity tools (e.g., FX interventions) that impact asset prices.
Download or read book Dampening Global Financial Shocks Can Macroprudential Regulation Help More than Capital Controls written by Katharina Bergant and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-26 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that macroprudential regulation can considerably dampen the impact of global financial shocks on emerging markets. More specifically, a tighter level of regulation reduces the sensitivity of GDP growth to VIX movements and capital flow shocks. A broad set of macroprudential tools contribute to this result, including measures targeting bank capital and liquidity, foreign currency mismatches, and risky forms of credit. We also find that tighter macroprudential regulation allows monetary policy to respond more countercyclically to global financial shocks. This could be an important channel through which macroprudential regulation enhances macroeconomic stability. These findings on the benefits of macroprudential regulation are particularly notable since we do not find evidence that stricter capital controls provide similar gains.
Download or read book Megaregulation Contested written by Benedict Kingsbury and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2019-06-11 with total page 753 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Japan-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPPA) of 2018 is the most far-reaching 'megaregional' economic agreement in force, with several major countries beyond its eleven negotiating countries also interested. Still bearing the stamp of the original US involvement before the Trump-era reversal, TPP is the first instance of 'megaregulation': a demanding combination of inter-state economic ordering and national regulatory governance on a highly ambitious substantive and trans-regional scale. Its text and ambition have influenced other negotiations ranging from the Japan-EU Agreement (JEEPA) and the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to the projected Pan-Asian Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This book provides an extensive analysis of TPP as a megaregulatory project for channelling and managing new pressures of globalization, and of core critical arguments made against economic megaregulation from standpoints of development, inequality, labour rights, environmental interests, corporate capture, and elite governance. Specialized chapters cover supply chains, digital economy, trade facilitation, intellectual property, currency levels, competition and state-owned enterprises, government procurement, investment, prescriptions for national regulation, and the TPP institutions. Country studies include detailed analyses of TPP-related politics and approaches in Japan, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Thailand. Contributors include leading practitioners and scholars in law, economics, and political science. At a time when the WTO and other global-scale institutions are struggling with economic nationalism and geopolitics, and bilateral and regional agreements are pressed by public disagreement and incompatibility with digital and capital and value chain flows, the megaregional ambition of TPP is increasingly important as a precedent requiring the close scrutiny this book presents.
Download or read book Managing Capital Flows written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.
Download or read book A Quantitative Model for the Integrated Policy Framework written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-07 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many central banks have relied on a range of policy tools, including foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs), to mitigate the effects of volatile capital flows on their economies. We develop an empirically-oriented New Keynesian model to evaluate and quantify how using multiple policy tools can potentially improve monetary policy tradeoffs. Our model embeds nonlinear balance sheet channels and includes a range of empirically-relevant frictions. We show that FXI and CFMs may improve policy tradeoffs under certain conditions, especially for economies with less well-anchored inflation expectations, substantial foreign currency mismatch, and that are more vulnerable to shocks likely to induce capital outflows and exchange rate pressures.
