Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise Analysis for Strategic Warning written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2012-08-12 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assigned to the National Indications Center, Cynthia Grabo served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and in its successor, the Strategic Warning Staff. During this time she saw the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. With three decades of experience in the Intelligence Community, she saw intelligence and warning failures in Korea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Cuba. In the summer of 1972, the DIA published her "Handbook of Warning Intelligence" as a classified document, followed by two additional classified volumes, one in the fall of 1972 and the last in 1974. These declassified books have now been condensed from the original three volumes into this one. Ms. Grabo's authoritative interpretation of an appropriate analytic strategy for intelligence-based warning is here presented in a commercial reprint of this classic study. (Originally published by the Joint Military Intelligence College)
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia Grabo and published by Historical Studies. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anticipating Surprise, originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts during the Cold War, has been declassified and condensed to provide wider audiences with an inside look at intelligence gathering and analysis for strategic warning. Cynthia Grabo defines the essential steps in the warning process, examines distinctive ingredients of the analytic method of intelligence gathering, and discusses the guidelines for assessing the meaning of gathered information. Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on America, intelligence collection and analysis has been hotly debated. In this book, Grabo suggests ways of improving warning assessments that better convey warnings to policymakers and military commanders who are responsible for taking appropriate action to avert disaster.
Download or read book Blindside written by Francis Fukuyama and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2008-01-27 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises—like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired—have caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious recent example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined our lives. We have every reason to expect more such events in future. Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios—particularly those of low probability and high impact—have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing low-probability events is a critically important challenge to contemporary policymakers, who increasingly recognize that they lack the analytical tools to do so. Developing such tools is the focus of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine. Bl indside is organized into four main sections. "Thinking about Strategic Surprise" addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. The following two sections pinpoint the failures—institutional as well as personal—that allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. In "Pollyana vs. Cassandra," for example, James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook debate the future state of the world going forward. Mitchell Waldrop explores why technology forecasting is so poor and why that is likely to remain the case. In the book's final section, "What Could Be," internationally renowned authorities discuss low probability, high-impact contingencies in their area of expertise. For example, Scott Barrett looks at emerging infectious diseases, while Gal Luft and Anne Korin discuss energy security. How can we avoid
Download or read book Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-12-31 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by University Press of America. This book was released on 2004 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anticipating Surprise, originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts during the Cold War, has been declassified and condensed to provide wider audiences with an inside look at intelligence gathering and analysis for strategic warning. Cynthia Grabo defines the essential steps in the warning process, examines distinctive ingredients of the analytic method of intelligence gathering, and discusses the guidelines for assessing the meaning of gathered information. Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on America, intelligence collection and analysis has been hotly debated. In this book, Grabo suggests ways of improving warning assessments that better convey warnings to policymakers and military commanders who are responsible for taking appropriate action to avert disaster.
Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Ephraim KAM and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints. Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny. --Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel
Download or read book Preventing Surprise Attacks written by Richard A. Posner and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2005 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posner discusses the utter futilty of this reform act in a searing critique of the 9/11 Commission, its recommendations, Congress's role in making law, and the law's inability to do what it is intended to do.
Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Richard K. Betts and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Long before Germany's blitzkrieg swept the West, European leaders had received many signals of its imminence. Stalin, too, had abundant warning of German designs on Russia but believed that by avoiding "provocative" defensive measures he could avert the attack that finally came in June 1941. And the stories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and three Arab-Israeli conflicts are replete with missed opportunities to react to unmistakable warnings. Richad K. Betts analyzes surprise attacks during the mid-twentieth century to illustrate his thesis: surprise attacks occur, not because intelligence services fail to warn, but because of the disbelief of political leaders. "Although the probability is low that the United States will fail to deter direct attack by the Soviet Union," Betts says, "the intensity of the threat warrants painstaking analysis of how to cope with it." His own investigation of the historical, psychological, political, diplomatic, and military aspects of his subject heightens understanding of why surprise attacks succeed and why victim nations fail to respond to warnings. In discussing current policy he focuses on the defense of Western Europe and applies the lessons of history to U.S. defense planning, offering detailed recommendations for changes in strategy. Obviously some of the potential dangers of military surprise cannot be prevented. The important thing, he emphasizes, is that "without forces that exceed requirements (the solution Moscow appears to have chosen), it is vital to ensure that what forces exist can be brought to bear when needed.
Download or read book We Never Expected That written by Avner Barnea and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2021-08-30 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The disciplines of strategic intelligence at the governmental level and competitive business intelligence constitute accepted methods of decision-supporting to prevent mistakes and strategic surprise. This research discovered that many researchers in the intelligence field feel that intelligence methodology in both contexts has reached a “glass ceiling.” Thus far, research has focused separately on national intelligence and intelligence in business, without any attempt to benchmark from one field to the other. This book shows that it is possible to use experience gained in the business field to improve intelligence practices in national security, and vice versa through mutual learning. The book’s main innovation is its proposition that mutual learning can be employed in the context of a model distinguishes between concentrated and diffused surprises to provide a breakthrough in the intelligence field, thereby facilitating better prediction of the surprise development. We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence focuses on a comparison between how states, through their intelligence organizations, cope with strategic surprises and how business organizations deal with unexpected movement in their field. Based on this comparison, the author proposes a new model which can better address the challenge of avoiding strategic surprises. This book can contribute significantly to the study of intelligence, which will become more influential in the coming years.
Download or read book Handbook of Warning Intelligence written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by Security and Professional Intelligence Education Series. This book was released on 2010 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Warning Intelligence: Assessing the Threat to National Security was written during the Cold War and classified for 40 years, this manual is now available to scholars and practitioners interested in both history and intelligence. Cynthia Grabo, author of the abridged version, Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, goes into detail on the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting. The book discusses the problems of military analysis, problems of understanding specific problems of political, civil and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment."
Download or read book Out of the Blue written by John L. Petersen and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Out of the Blue is an easy-to-read guide to anticipating and preparing for high-impact, life-altering events.
Download or read book Harnessing the Power of Intelligence Counterintelligence Surprise Events written by Alain Paul Martin and published by Professional Dev Inst Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Full of practical illustrations from business, government and the military, this book covers the organization, leadership, tools and culture of intelligence. It reveals new instruments, platforms and breakthrough concepts to address intelligence issues at national and corporate levels. It can help companies use intelligence to win customers and allies, and shield their assets from adversaries. Its focus is on detecting threats and opportunities, by legal and ethical means, and earlier than can be learned through reliable media. Readers will learn how to orchestrate and hitchhike on surprise events to create value. Based on Harvard University Global System? management road maps pioneered by the author, the book features extensive endnotes and Web sites, a bibliography, a book index and colorful Harvard road maps on strategy and risk. The book is suitable for general audiences. Technical terms are explained thoroughly. Some stories could be used to stimulate discussions and give college students a primer on intelligence. Real-life examples about people and important issues will be fun to read, talk about, both at work and at home. As Harvard Emeritus Professor William J. Bruns said: "Martin has created a framework and processes that anyone or any organization can adapt and use to create information and intelligence that will prevent or reduce unpleasant surprises in their lives or work."
Download or read book Softball Fundamentals written by Rick Noren and published by Human Kinetics. This book was released on 2005-02-03 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States has more than 2 million fastpitch softball participants—500,000 of whom are under the age of 12. Softball Fundamentals provides an easy way for beginners of all ages to learn the basic skills of the game. Writer Rick Noren puts these skills together from the perspective of an award-winning coach who has posted a 320-79 (.802) record in his 10 years at Pacific Lutheran University. The 10th entry in the Sports Fundamentals series, this book covers all the bases of fastpitch softball, including throwing, catching, fielding, hitting, baserunning, sliding, and pitching, in an engaging format that makes learning easy and practicing fun. Each chapter presents a specific skill, leading the player through a simple, four-step sequence: You Can Do It: A basic skill or tactic is introduced with sequential instructions and accompanying photographs or diagrams. More to Choose and Use: Variations and extensions of the primary skill are covered. Take It to the Field: Readers learn how to apply the skill in competition. Give It a Go: Drills and practice games gauge, develop, and hone the skill. With its concise instruction, supplementary photos, and 48 skill-sharpening drills, Softball Fundamentals facilitates quicker comprehension by letting players spend less time reading and more time on the playing field.
Download or read book Building Evaluation Capacity written by Hallie Preskill and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-14 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Second Edition of Building Evaluation Capacity provides 89 highly structured activities which require minimal instructor preparation and encourage application-based learning of how to design and conduct evaluation studies. Ideal for use in program evaluation courses, professional development workshops, and organization stakeholder trainings, the activities cover the entire process of evaluation, including: understanding what evaluation is; the politics and ethics; the influence of culture; various models, approaches and designs; data collection and analysis methods; communicating and reporting progress and findings; and building and sustaining support. Each activity includes an overview, instructional objectives, minimum and maximum number of participants, range of time required, materials needed, primary instructional method, and procedures for facilitators to help learners in the most common evaluation practices.
Download or read book Cost Inclusive Evaluation written by Nadini Persaud and published by Guilford Publications. This book was released on 2023-02-27 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is a given treatment, intervention, or program worth it? How can a program do more or better with less? Evaluating the costs of a program can be the missing link between a superficial evaluation and one that will get changes made and funding delivered. In accessible language and without complex formulas, this book provides a roadmap for measuring program costs and outcomes and analyzing cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit, and cost-utility. Also explained are simplified ways to use economic appraisal methodologies--such as net present valuation, internal rate of return computation, and payback period determination--in a cost-inclusive evaluation. Instructive examples span a range of human services, education, and health care contexts. Other evaluator- and student-friendly features include helpful graphics, procedure steps, end-of-chapter discussion questions, a list of acronyms, and a glossary of key terms.
Download or read book Doomed to Repeat written by Sean Brawley and published by New Acdemia+ORM. This book was released on 2009-04-13 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of scholarly essays explores the role of history in terrorism studies and today’s counterterrorism initiatives. In Doomed to Repeat?, scholars, policy makers, and other practitioners explore how a better understanding of the past can help us combat terrorism in the future. The first section establishes a broader context for discussion by examining the connections between history and Terrorism Studies. The second section presents the insights of non-historians who know the importance of historical perspective in understanding current events. Section Three provides case studies that explore the history of terrorism and politically motivated violence. Section Four concludes by placing concerns about terrorism in regional and foreign policy context. “This collection helps us advance our understanding of terrorism beyond simplistic and dichotomist assertions about “them” and “us.” Taken together, these essays highlight the importance of analyzing, rather than assuming.” —Chris Dixon, Professor, School of History, Philosophy, Religion, and Classics, The University of Queensland, Australia
