Download or read book Analytic Culture in the United States Intelligence Community written by Rob Johnston and published by Central Intelligence Agency. This book was released on 2005 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Identifies and describes conditions and variables that negatively affect intelligence analysis. Investigates analytic culture, methodology, error, and failure within the Intelligence Community. Uses an applied anthropological methodology that includes interviews, direct and participant observation, and focus groups. Contains a bibliography.
Download or read book Analytic Culture in the US Intelligence Community written by Rob Johnson and published by . This book was released on 2005-09-01 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Johnson, an anthropologist, writes on the basis of an intimate knowledge of the world of intelligence. He conducted hundreds of interviews & observed & participated in dozens of work groups in intelligence analysis. Contents: Research Findings; Ethnography of Analysis: A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables; & Testing the Intelligence Cycle Through Systems Modeling & Simulation; Areas for Improvement: Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Experts; The Question of Foreign Cultures: Combating Ethnocentrism in Intelligence Analysis; Instructional Technology: Effectiveness & Implications for the Intelligence Community; Organizational Culture: Anticipatory Socialization & Intelligence Analysis; & Recommendations. Bibliography. Illus.
Download or read book Analytic Culture in the US Intelligence Community written by Rob Johnston and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Analytic Culture in the U S Intelligence Community written by Rob Johnston and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2012-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is a rare season when the intelligence story in the news concerns intelligence analysis, not secret operations abroad. The United States is having such a season as it debates whether intelligence failed in the run-up to both September 11 and the second Iraq war, and so Rob Johnston's wonderful book is perfectly timed to provide the back-story to those headlines. The CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence is to be commended for having the good sense to find Johnston and the courage to support his work, even though his conclusions are not what many in the world of intelligence analysis would like to hear. He reaches those conclusions through the careful procedures of an anthro-pologist-conducting literally hundreds of interviews and observing and participating in dozens of work groups in intelligence analysis-and so they cannot easily be dismissed as mere opinion, still less as the bitter mutterings of those who have lost out in the bureaucratic wars. His findings constitute not just a strong indictment of the way American intelligence performs analysis, but also, and happily, a guide for how to do better. Johnston finds no baseline standard analytic method. Instead, the most com¬mon practice is to conduct limited brainstorming on the basis of previous analy¬sis, thus producing a bias toward confirming earlier views. The validating of data is questionable-for instance, the Directorate of Operation's (DO) "clean¬ing" of spy reports doesn't permit testing of their validity-reinforcing the tendency to look for data that confirms, not refutes, prevailing hypotheses. The process is risk averse, with considerable managerial conservatism. There is much more emphasis on avoiding error than on imagining surprises. The analytic process is driven by current intelligence, especially the CIA's crown jewel analytic product, the President's Daily Brief (PDB), which might be caricatured as "CNN plus secrets." Johnston doesn't put it quite that way, but the Intelligence Community does more reporting than in-depth analysis. None of the analytic agencies knows much about the analytic techniques of the others. In all, there tends to be much more emphasis on writing and communication skills than on analytic methods. Training is driven more by the druthers of individual analysts than by any strategic view of the agencies and what they need. Most training is on-the-job. Johnston identifies the needs for analysis of at least three different types of consumers-cops, spies, and soldiers. The needs of those consumers produce at least three distinct types of intelligence-investigative or operational, stra tegic, and tactical. The research suggests the need for serious study of analytic methods across all three, guided by professional methodologists. Analysts should have many more opportunities to do fieldwork abroad. They should also move much more often across the agency "stovepipes" they now inhabit. These movements would give them a richer sense for how other agencies do analysis. Together, the analytic agencies should aim to create "communities of practice," with mentoring, analytic practice groups, and various kinds of on-line resources, including forums on methods and problem solving. These communities would be linked to a central repository of lessons learned, based on after-action post-mortems and more formal reviews of strategic intelligence products. These reviews should derive lessons for individuals and for teams and should look at roots of errors and failures. Oral and written histories would serve as other sources of wherewithal for lessons. These communities could also begin to reshape organizations, by rethinking organizational designs, developing more formal socialization programs, testing group configurations for effectiveness, and doing the same for management and leadership practices. Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
Download or read book Analyzing Intelligence written by Roger Z. George and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2008-04-09 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches. The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft") and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis. Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts. The innovations section will provoke senior intelligence managers to consider major changes in the way analysis is currently organized and conducted, and the way that analysts are trained and perform.
Download or read book Social and Behavioral Sciences for National Security written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-06-12 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the coming years, complex domestic and international environments and challenges to national security will continue. Intelligence analysts and the intelligence community will need access to the appropriate tools and developing knowledge about threats to national security in order to provide the best information to policy makers. Research and knowledge from the social and behavioral sciences (SBS) can help inform the work of intelligence analysis; however, in the past, bringing important findings from research to bear on the day-to-day work of intelligence analysis has been difficult. In order to understand how knowledge from science can be directed and applied to help the intelligence community fulfill its critical responsibilities, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will undertake a 2-year survey of the social and behavioral sciences. To launch this discussion, a summit designed to highlight cutting-edge research and identify future directions for research in a few areas of the social and behavioral sciences was held in October 2016. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the summit.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-03-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-05 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by Robert M. Clark and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2012-09-25 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert M. Clark explains that a collaborative, target-centric approach allows for more effective analysis, while better meeting customer needs.
Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Strategic Culture written by Kerry M. Kartchner and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-10-11 with total page 515 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook offers a collection of cutting-edge essays on all aspects of strategic culture by a mix of international scholars, consultants, military officers, and policymakers. The volume explicitly addresses the analytical conundrums faced by scholars who wish to employ or generate strategic cultural insights, with substantive commentary on defining and scoping strategic culture, analytic frameworks and approaches, levels of analysis, sources of strategic culture, and modalities of change in strategic culture. The chapters engage strategic culture at the civilizational, regional, supra-national, national, non-state actor, and organizational levels. The volume is divided into five thematic parts, which will appeal to both students who are new to the subject and scholars who wish to incorporate strategic culture into their toolbox of analytical techniques. Part I assesses the evolving theoretical strengths and weaknesses of the field. Part II lays out elements of the theoretical and methodological foundations of the field, including sources and components of strategic culture. Part III presents a number of national strategic cultural profiles, representing the state of contemporary strategic culture scholarship. Part IV addresses the utility of strategic culture for practitioners and scholars. Part V summarizes the key theoretical and practical insights offered by the volume’s contributors. This handbook will be of much interest to students of strategic studies, defense studies, security studies, and international relations in general, as well as to professional practitioners.
Download or read book Risk Assessment for Water Infrastructure Safety and Security written by Anna Doro-on and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-08-17 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the seventeen critical infrastructures vital to the security of the United States, the water supply system remains largely unprotected from the threat of terrorism, including possible revenge by Al Qaeda over the killing of Osama Bin Laden. Recognizing and identifying prospective events of terrorism against the water infrastructure is critical to the protection of the nation, as the consequences triggered by a terrorist attack on the water supply would be devastating. Risk Assessment for Water Infrastructure: Safety and Security provides a unique quantitative risk assessment methodology for protection and security against terrorist contamination, vandalism, attacks against dams, and other threats to water supply systems. Focusing on the human safety, environmental, and economic consequences triggered by potential terrorist attacks and other threats, the book presents: The development of an integrated approach of risk assessment based upon the cumulative prospect theory The qualitative/quantitative processes and models for security and safe facility operations as required by EPA, DHS, and other governmental and regulatory agencies The application of an integrated model to the risk assessment of surface water, dams, wells, wastewater treatment facilities, reservoirs, and aqueducts of large urban regions The development of intelligence analysis incorporating risk assessment for terrorism prevention Finally, the book presents the legal and regulatory requirements and policy related to the protection and security of water infrastructure from terrorism and natural hazards to both human health and the environment. By analyzing potential terrorist risks against the water supply, strategic improvements in U.S. water infrastructure security may be achieved, including changes in policy, incorporation of intrusion detection technology, increased surveillance, and increased intelligence. More information can be found on the author's website.
Download or read book Managing Intelligence written by John Buckley and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2017-07-27 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Intelligence: A Guide for Law Enforcement Professionals is designed to assist practitioners and agencies build an efficient system to gather and manage intelligence effectively and lawfully in line with the principles of intelligence-led policing. Research for this book draws from discussions with hundreds of officers in different agencies, roles, and ranks from the UK, United States, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. Highlighting common misunderstandings in law enforcement about intelligence, the book discusses the origins of these misunderstandings and puts intelligence in context with other policing models.
Download or read book The CIA Intelligence Analyst written by Roger Z George and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2024-09-02 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique insiders' account of what CIA intelligence analysts do and why it matters The common perception of a CIA officer is someone who collects secret intelligence abroad--a spy. However, the critical link between secrets and policy is the intelligence analyst. The CIA Intelligence Analyst brings to light the vital, but often-unseen, work of these officers. Roger Z. George, Robert Levine, and the contributors to this book demystify the profession of intelligence analyst at the CIA and describe how the wide array of analytic specialties--or "disciplines" in the language of the CIA--function. The disciplines range from political, economic, leadership, and military matters to science and technology, cyber, counterterrorism, and counterintelligence. Each of the chapters--written by former or current CIA analysts--discusses how analysts interact with those who collect raw intelligence. Just as important, the chapters describe the relationships analysts develop with the diverse set of policymakers who use CIA analyses. The contributors reveal the key intelligence questions that analysts address, their methods, their products, and their challenges. This book will be an invaluable resource for scholars of national security and intelligence who want to develop a fuller picture of the internal workings of the CIA and for those who are considering a career as an analyst.
Download or read book Field Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On September 22-23, 2009, the National Research Council held a workshop on the field evaluation of behavioral and cognitive sciences-based methods and tools for use in the areas of intelligence and counterintelligence. Broadly speaking, the purpose of the workshop was to discuss the best ways to take methods and tools from behavioral science and apply them to work in intelligence operations. More specifically, the workshop focused on the issue of field evaluation-the testing of these methods and tools in the context in which they will be used in order to determine if they are effective in real-world settings. This book is a summary and synthesis of the two days of presentations and discussions that took place during the workshop. The workshop participants included invited speakers and experts from a number of areas related to the behavioral sciences and the intelligence community. The discussions covered such ground as the obstacles to field evaluation of behavioral science tools and methods, the importance of field evaluation, and various lessons learned from experience with field evaluation in other areas.
Download or read book Curing Analytic Pathologies written by Jeffrey Cooper and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-04-28 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: FROM THE AUTHOR: As a result of a number of analytic projects for different intelligence agencies, a major focus of my work during the past several years has involved examining the practice of analysis within the US Intelligence Community. This study was prompted by a growing conviction-shared by others, to be sure-that improving the analytic products delivered by Intelligence Community components had to begin with a critical and thorough appraisal of the way those products are created. A conversation with a physicist friend in 2002 had triggered thoughts on several basic differences between the practice of science and intelligence analysis. Shortly thereafter, an invitation to give a seminar on intelligence analysis at Stanford University led me to prepare a briefing entitled "Intelligence and Warning: Analytic Pathologies," which focused on a diagnosis of the problems highlighted by recent intelligence failures. As Donald Stokes noted in his seminal book on science and technological innovation, Pasteur's Quadrant, "Pathologies have proved to be both a continuing source of insight into the system's normal functioning and a motive for extending basic knowledge." The Analytic Pathologies framework yields four insights that are crucial both to accurate diagnosis and to developing effective remedies. First, the framework enables analysts to identify individual analytic impediments and determine their sources. Second, it prompts analysts to detect the systemic pathologies that result from closely-coupled networks and to find the linkages among the individual impediments. Third, it demonstrates that each of these networks, and thus each systemic pathology, usually spans multiple levels within the hierarchy of the Intelligence Community. Fourth, the framework highlights the need to treat both the systemic pathologies and the individual impediments by focusing effective remedial measures on the right target and at the appropriate level.
Download or read book Understanding the Intelligence Cycle written by Mark Phythian and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-07-18 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book critically analyses the concept of the intelligence cycle, highlighting the nature and extent of its limitations and proposing alternative ways of conceptualising the intelligence process. The concept of the intelligence cycle has been central to the study of intelligence. As Intelligence Studies has established itself as a distinctive branch of Political Science, it has generated its own foundational literature, within which the intelligence cycle has constituted a vital thread - one running through all social-science approaches to the study of intelligence and constituting a staple of professional training courses. However, there is a growing acceptance that the concept neither accurately reflects the intelligence process nor accommodates important elements of it, such as covert action, counter-intelligence and oversight. Bringing together key authors in the field, the book considers these questions across a number of contexts: in relation to intelligence as a general concept, military intelligence, corporate/private sector intelligence and policing and criminal intelligence. A number of the contributions also go beyond discussion of the limitations of the cycle concept to propose alternative conceptualisations of the intelligence process. What emerges is a plurality of approaches that seek to advance the debate and, as a consequence, Intelligence Studies itself. This book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, criminology and policing, security studies and IR in general, as well as to practitioners in the field.
