Download or read book An Explanation of Spread s Ability to Predict Economic Activity written by Anastasios Evgenidis and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study contributes to the relevant literature by providing an explanation on the reason and the economic conditions under which the spread proves to be such a powerful predictor of economic activity. For over two decades numerous studies have provided evidence on the predictive ability of the yield spread for real economic growth. While all this large literature has focused on how well the spread helps towards predicting real activity, none of these studies has given an answer on why the spread predicts. This study deals with this issue by attempting to find an answer on the reason and the economic conditions under which the spread proves to be such a powerful predictor of economic activity. We examine whether the explanation of spread's predictive ability lies behind interest rate volatility, supposing that the economy oscillates between high and low volatility regimes. For this reason we nest GARCH models into Markov regime switching models.When we assume that the economy simply oscillates between different regimes, interest rate volatility does not explain the spread's predictive ability. However, we obtain a very interesting result when we augment the conditional variance with a level effects term. This ensures that in an environment with high levels of interest rates - in which the rational agents expect the economy to slow down - there is a greater possibility for the economy to switch to a high volatility regime. Under these economic conditions, interest rate volatility appears to be the reason of spread's predictive power from one up to three years.
Download or read book The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area written by Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-11-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal set of variables as well as growth in the Rest of the World (an aggregation of seven small countries) and selected combinations of financial variables. Impulse responses (in-sample) show that shocks to financial variables influence real activity. However, according to out-of-sample forecast exercises using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metric, this macro-financial linkage would be weak: financial indicators do not improve short and medium term forecasts of real activity in the euro area, even when their timely availability, relative to GDP, is exploited. This result is partly due to the 'average' nature of the RMSE metric: when forecasting ability is assessed as if in real time (conditionally on the information available at the time of the forecast), we find that models using financial variables would have been preferred, ex ante, in several episodes, in particular between 1999 and 2002. This result suggests that one should not discard, on the basis of RMSE statistics, the use of predictive models that include financial variables if there is a theoretical prior that a financial shock is affecting growth.
Download or read book Handbook of Monetary and Fiscal Policy written by Alan A. Rabin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2001-12-19 with total page 1848 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the politics of economic policy, focusing on forecasting, inflation, interest rates, market expectations, financial crises, disruptions in global markets, and tax policy, as well as state and local government budgeting, financial management, and policy initiatives for development and growth.
Download or read book Handbook of Monetary Policy written by Jack Rabin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-04-30 with total page 1009 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook explains the development and implementation of monetary policy. It examines theories and issues related to the preservation of economic activity and explores why the preservation of economic stability is a principal goal of public policy.
Download or read book TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES OECD CASE written by Assist. Prof. Dr. Erkan KARA and published by EĞİTİM YAYINEVİ. This book was released on 2022-11-11 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study is dedicated to investigating the long-run relation between interest rate spreads and economic activities which include industrial production, inflation, and unemployment rate- in OECD countries over the period between2005 and 2015 by using panel data analysis. This study will use the latest panel data models that take structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency into account. Besides using panel data analysis on this issue, this paper will also try to see the effect of new monetary policies that are taking place by major central banks on yield spread and economic activities, especially industrial production. As it is known that, in the post-financial crisis of 2008 period, major central banks such as the Federal Reserve1 (The FED was the first central bank that started to implement new monetary policies just after the collapse of several large-scale investment banks in the U.S), European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, have taken action to stimulate the world economy. Henceforth, not only these major central banks, but also other economies started to lower their policy interest rates soon in conventional way. These policies pushed interest rates almost to zero and since then the rates have remained very low due to lower output level and disinflationary fears.
Download or read book Proceedings of the 2nd Advances in Business Research International Conference written by Fauziah Noordin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-17 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the refereed proceedings of the 2nd Advances in Business Research International Conference (ABRIC2016). Chapters in the book address the theme of Advancing Knowledge, Connecting the World, reflecting on the emerging issues in various business management fields and the interconnections of multiple disciplines for creating knowledge advancement. Papers were carefully reviewed and selected and grouped into four main themes: economic and finance, marketing and communications, management, and information technology in business. The book serves as a helpful resource for students and researchers of business management, especially in understanding issues and cases of business in emerging economies and markets.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance written by Georgios P. Kouretas and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2014-02-20 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Banking sector transformation, economic growth and inequality and exchange rate arrangements are critical issues whose importance has been highlighted during the recent financial crisis. This volume contains new research on the relationships between economic growth, inequality and the financial sector.
Download or read book Advances in Pacific Basin Business Economics and Finance written by Cheng-Few Lee and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-03-15 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance (APBBEF) is an annual series designed to focus on interdisciplinary research in finance, economics, and management among Pacific Rim countries. All articles published are reviewed and recommended by at least two members of the editorial board.
Download or read book Yield Spreads Real Economic Activity written by Alfred V. Guender and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 1098 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Does the Yield Spread Retain Its Forecasting Ability During the 2007 Recession A Comparative Analysis written by Anastasios Evgenidis and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spread's predictive ability is reviewed by implementing a number of linear and probit models. We conduct a comparative analysis of the forecasting performance of various specifications by focusing on the last three major US economic slowdowns. The results indicate that although linear models are useful in predicting the 1990 and 2001 decline in economic activity, none of these give signal of the 2007 decline in GDP. We find evidence that there is more information in the shape of the yield curve about the future economic activity than that provided by only the spread. We document that probit models are doing well in signalling the onset of 2007 crisis although they fail to capture its duration.
Download or read book Perspectives on Econometrics and Applied Economics written by Mark Taylor and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is dedicated to the memory and the achievements of Professor Sir Clive Granger, economics Nobel laureate and one of the great econometricians and applied economists of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. It comprises contributions from leading econometricians and applied economists who knew Sir Clive and interacted with him over the years, and who wished to pay tribute to him as both a great economist and econometrician, and as a great man. This book was originally published as a special issue of Applied Financial Economics.
Download or read book European Fixed Income Markets written by Jonathan A. Batten and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-04-21 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The introduction of the euro in 1999 cast a new focus on the financial markets of constituent euro-zone countries, which have subsequently emerged with the second largest bond market in the world. This new book offers in depth insights and advice for any practitioner in the European fixed-income and ancillary derivative markets, and includes in-depth analysis of euro and non-euro markets as well as emerging countries.
Download or read book A Reformulation Of Keynesian Economics written by Jagdish Handa and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-07-16 with total page 571 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Maynard Keynes' response to the extreme distress of the early years of the Great Depression produced The General Theory, which represented an overhaul of the macroeconomics inherited by his generation. The economic upheaval (including the Great Recession) since 2008 raised serious doubts about the relevance of economics as it had come to be formulated and taught by the beginning of this century. While numerous books and articles have addressed the current distress of economies through contributions to specific parts of macroeconomics, none has offered an attractive alternative that represents a general overhaul of the macroeconomics inherited by the current generation. A Reformulation of Keynesian Economic does so, and provides a modern integrated version of macroeconomics for the modern economies as they function.This book's many insights and innovations include: discarding the classical concepts of the long run and the short run in favour of the behavioural concepts of the planning period (the long term) and the short term (the operating period); discarding the exogenous production function in favour of an endogenous one; distinguishing between the short-term and the long-term production functions; replacing the dynamic stochastic notional general equilibrium (DSGE) approach for the short term by a more general one that permits effective equilibrium and disequilibrium in specific markets; and, a reformulation of the financial sector analysis and of the Keynesian business cycle theory.This thoroughgoing revision of macroeconomics is must-read for macroeconomists, policymakers and graduate students. It can even be used as a textbook by instructors who question the inherited orthodoxy built around the DSGE model and are looking for an alternative formulation of macroeconomics.
Download or read book Money Trade and Finance written by Ioanna T. Kokores and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-25 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyses several aspects on the efficient resource allocation in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. The main focus of the volume is on recent European Union (EU) experience highlighting the interrelation between inherent structural rigidities and practical limitations in the conduct of sound economic policy. Special reference is made to Greece (evidencing unprecedented experience), the EU periphery countries and the US. This book will be of interest to academic and central bank researchers, business practitioners (in consultancy and finance) and graduate students, as it is a good example of how scholarly dialogue can contribute to contemporary high-quality policy debate on sound liquidity provision and financial stability in the Eurozone, as well as the effective ways to combat recession in the EU periphery countries.
Download or read book Financial Economics and Econometrics written by Nikiforos T. Laopodis and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-12-14 with total page 787 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Economics and Econometrics provides an overview of the core topics in theoretical and empirical finance, with an emphasis on applications and interpreting results. Structured in five parts, the book covers financial data and univariate models; asset returns; interest rates, yields and spreads; volatility and correlation; and corporate finance and policy. Each chapter begins with a theory in financial economics, followed by econometric methodologies which have been used to explore the theory. Next, the chapter presents empirical evidence and discusses seminal papers on the topic. Boxes offer insights on how an idea can be applied to other disciplines such as management, marketing and medicine, showing the relevance of the material beyond finance. Readers are supported with plenty of worked examples and intuitive explanations throughout the book, while key takeaways, ‘test your knowledge’ and ‘test your intuition’ features at the end of each chapter also aid student learning. Digital supplements including PowerPoint slides, computer codes supplements, an Instructor’s Manual and Solutions Manual are available for instructors. This textbook is suitable for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses on financial economics, financial econometrics, empirical finance and related quantitative areas.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Risk and Growth in the Southeast Asian Countries written by William A. Barnett and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2023-11-09 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging markets offer a unique financial setting, contrasting with developed markets. ISETE-33 gives fresh insight into financial and economic issues in Indonesia and ASEAN countries, written by authors from diverse backgrounds.
