Download or read book An Empirical Analysis of Perceived and Expected Inflation Rates in the United States written by Theode Charles Langevin and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book The Expected Perceived and Realized Inflation of U S Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic written by Michael Weber and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the pandemic spread across the U.S., disagreement among U.S. households about inflation expectations surged along with the mean perceived and expected level of inflation. Simultaneously, the inflation experienced by households became more dispersed. Using matched micro data on spending of households and their macroeconomic expectations, we study the link between the inflation experienced by households in their daily shopping and their perceived and expected levels of inflation both before and during the pandemic. In normal times, realized inflation barely differs across observable dimensions but low income, low education, and Black households experienced a larger increase in realized inflation than other households did. Dispersion in realized and perceived inflation explains a large share of the rise in dispersion in inflation expectations.
Download or read book Uncertainty about Inflationary Perceptions and Expectations written by Lars Jonung and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Download or read book Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Download or read book Are Perceptions of Inflation Rational written by Lars Jonung and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Measurement of Perceived and Expected Inflation on the Basis of Consumer Survey Data written by Tomasz Łyziak and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation Inflation Uncertainty and Relative Price Variability written by John E. Golob and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Download or read book Perceptions of Inflation and the Formation of Price Expectations written by Lucia F. Dunn and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study analyzes data from survey questions which obtain both (1) inflationary expectations in continuous numerical terms for the coming 12 months from a survey sample and (2) the subjects' perceptions of what inflation had been over the previous 12 months, again in continuous numerical terms. The data used here are for the period 1974 -77 when inflation reached unusually high levels due to energy shocks after two decades of relatively modest price change. This provides a unique opportunity to examine subjects in a period when they were adjusting to a dramatically changed price environment. The findings show a systematic basis towards over-estimation, or exaggeration, in perceived inflation rates which increases as actual inflation rates accelerate. As estimated from these data, perceptions of inflation are found to approach their most accurate level when actual inflation is at its lowest level, which was 4.2% in that period. Even in this case, the exaggeration factor was 2.16. Perceived rates of inflation for specific expenditure categories were also studied for a subsample and again showed substantial over-estimation, but with the same rank ordering as actual rates of inflation for the categories. Finally, we use the data on perceived as well as expected rates of inflation from the same sample to fit both the adaptive and the extrapolative models of price expectations. The adaptive expectations model is also fitted with the actual rather than perceived rate of inflation utilizing a panel component of our initial survey sample. The use of perceived rates is found to be superior in fitting this model. Socioeconomic variables are also examined, and mostly notably, women are found to have significantly greater over-perceptions of inflation than men.
Download or read book Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations written by Juan Angel Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area.
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Download or read book Survey based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U S Inflation written by Sharon Kozicki and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Surveys provide direct information on expectations, but only short histories are available at quarterly frequencies or for long-horizon expectations. Longer histories typically contain only semi-annual observations of short-horizon forecasts. The authors fill in the gaps by constructing a 50-year monthly history of expected inflation at all horizons from one month to 10 years that is consistent with inflation data and infrequent survey data. In the process, some models that fit inflation well are found to generate forecasts that bear little resemblance to survey data. Also, survey data on near-term expectations are found to contain considerable information about longhorizon views. The estimated long-horizon forecast series, a measure of the private sector's perception of the inflation target of monetary policy, has shifted considerably over time and is the source of some of the persistence of inflation. When compared with estimates of the effective inflation goal of policy, these perceptions suggest that monetary policy has been less than fully credible historically" - abstract.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1987-01-01 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the flow of primary commodity exports from non-oil exporting developing countries grouped by geographical region. The first part analyzes the changes in the structure of developing country commodity exports that have taken place over the past two decades. The second part presents empirical evidence on the response of commodity exports to demand and supply. These empirical results point to the low price and income elasticities of demand for certain primary commodity exports and to price elasticities of supply that are in general lower than the corresponding price elasticities of demand in the short run, but that are more sensitive to price in the longer run.
Download or read book Mining the Gap Extracting Firms Inflation Expectations From Earnings Calls written by Silvia Albrizio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-04 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a novel approach involving natural language processing (NLP) algorithms, we construct a new cross-country index of firms' inflation expectations from earnings call transcripts. Our index has a high correlation with existing survey-based measures of firms' inflation expectations, it is robust to external validation tests and is built using a new method that outperforms other NLP algorithms. In an application of our index to United States, we uncover some facts related to firm's inflation expectations. We show that higher expected inflation translates into future inflation. Going into the firms level dimension of our index, we show departures from a rational framework in firms' inflation expectations and that firms' attention to the central enhances monetary policy effectiveness.
Download or read book The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance written by John Eatwell and published by Springer. This book was released on 1992-10-14 with total page 869 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first reference work ever to be awarded the Eccles Prize for Excellence in Economic Writing from Columbia Business School. Continuing in the tradition of The New Palgrave , this 3-volume set provides an unparalleled guide to modern money, banking and finance. In over 1,000 substantial essays by leading academic and professional authorities, it provides the most comprehensive analysis available of contemporary theory and the fast-evolving global monetary and financial framework. In its scope and depth of coverage, it is indispensable for the academic and practitioner alike.
