Download or read book An Analysis of OPEC s Strategic Actions US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash written by Mr.Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-07 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
Download or read book An Analysis of OPEC s Strategic Actions US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash written by Alberto Behar and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
Download or read book An Analysis of OPEC s Strategic Actions US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash written by Mr.Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-06 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
Download or read book America s Energy Gamble written by Shanti Gamper-Rabindran and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-01-13 with total page 539 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rigorous exploration of the Trump administration's pro-fossil fuel policy and its lasting impact on public health, the economy, and the environment.
Download or read book Social Sciences Studies in Turkey written by Eyup Saritas and published by Trafford Publishing. This book was released on 2018-05-14 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: OPEC members have been suffering from the dramatic decline in oil prices over the past two years, which has seen crude dropping to between $40 and $50 per barrel from more than $100 in 2014. Since OPEC declared its noncutting policy on November 2014, both government budgets and economies of oil-exporting countries felt tremendous pressure. Saudi Arabias economy had especially been seriously affected because of the strategy against the USA. Faced with these challenges, OPEC members finally agreed in a September 2016 meeting in Algeria to cut production in principle. Exact quotas were determined in late November. After this meeting, OPEC oil production began to decrease and the oil prices began to increase. In this study, we found that there is a relation between OPECs oil production and oil prices. We observed the monthly data from November 2014 to May 2017, and we showed that the OPECs influence on oil prices are dwindling. OPEC is still important on prices, and the announcements have an effect on these prices; however, this impact is dwindling. Recently, on May 2017, OPEC and other oil producers are on course to agree to an extension of supply cuts by a further nine months. According to Forbes, crude oil prices had gone up by more than 9% in November, following the initial agreement to reduce output, as opposed to just a 2% jump in oil prices when OPEC announced the extension of the cut. This not only indicates that the proposed output restrictions are not enough to have a meaningful impact on oil prices but also hints at the fact that OPECs power to influence crude oil prices is waning.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects January 2018 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2018-01-26 with total page 575 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is in a broad-based cyclical recovery. Investment, manufacturing and trade are on the rebound. Financing conditions are benign, monetary policies are generally accommodative, and the worst impacts of the recent commodity price collapse have begun to dissipate. However, the global economic outlook remains clouded by a number of risks. These include the possibility of financial market disruptions, rising protectionist sentiment, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Of particular concern is evidence of subdued productivity and slowing potential growth. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the causes of the broad-based slowing of potential growth and suggests remedies. The report also contains Special Focus sections on the impact of the 2014-2016 oil price collapse and the relationship between education demographics and global inequality. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
Download or read book Oil and the Western Economic Crisis written by Helen Thompson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-05-18 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains the place of oil in the economic and political predicaments that now confront the West. Thompson explains the problems that the rising cost of oil posed in the years leading up to the 2008 crash, and the difficulties that a volatile oil market now poses to economic recovery under the conditions of high debt, low growth and quantitative easing. The author argues that the 'Gordian knot' created by the economic and political dynamics of supply and demand oil in the present international economy poses a fundamental challenge to the assumption of economic progress embedded in Western democratic expectations.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin September 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-30 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: “A New Look at Bank Capital” (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and “Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses “Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.
Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-18 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Stronger activity, expectations of more robust global demand, reduced deflationary pressures, and optimistic financial markets are all upside developments. But structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term, remain important challenges. Chapter 2 examines how changes in external conditions may affect the pace of income convergence between advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Chapter 3 looks at the declining share of income that goes to labor, including the root causes and how the trend affects inequality. Overall, this report stresses the need for credible strategies in advanced economies and in those whose markets are emerging and developing to tackle a number of common challenges in an integrated global economy.
Download or read book The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region written by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-06 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.
Download or read book Caribbean Energy written by Arnold McIntyre and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy agenda forward based on analyses of macro-aspects of energy reform. These include: i) quantitative assessment of the impact of energy costs on growth and competitiveness; ii) evaluation of gains from implementing announced renewable energy and energy efficiency targets; and iii) analysis of the impact of energy investments on debt sustainability. The paper argues for a bigger role for the private sector in energy reform and discusses prerequisites for good public-private partnerships.
Download or read book Job Creation and Destruction written by Steven J. Davis and published by MIT Press (MA). This book was released on 1996 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume considers the American manufacturing industry, and develops a statistical portait of the microeconomic adjustments that affect business and workers. The authors focus on the employer rather than worker side of the process aiming to show the processes that will be relevant to economists.
Download or read book Oil Capital written by Bernard F. Clark, Jr. and published by . This book was released on 2016-06-01 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The history of oilmen and the energy bankers who loan them capital is inextricably bound together. Energy bankers have reacted, adjusted and evolved alongside the same business cycles, regulatory changes and commodity-price gyrations that have challenged the generations of oilmen they banked. In many respects, however, it is remarkable how little has changed during the past 100 years in the fundamentals of lending against collateral that has been hidden underground for millions of years. Nor has there been much change in the relationship between the early wildcatters willing to risk their--and their banker's--last dime and the bankers who cautiously evaluate the oilmen and their collateral. Along with manpower, rigs and drill pipe, capital has always been a critical tool in the exploration for and development of oil and gas. From the earliest days of the industry, producers have required more start-up capital for acquisition, drilling and development of oil fields than can be generated out of cash flow from existing production. The accomplishments of oil companies were and are as dependent upon access to capital as access to the hydrocarbons they seek to exploit. This book tells the story of the enduring relationship of oil and gas producers and oil and gas bankers in the context of the evolution of the two industries.
Download or read book Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries Design and Implementation written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-16 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Better designed and implemented fiscal regimes for oil, gas, and mining can make a substantial contribution to the revenue needs of many developing countries while ensuring an attractive return for investors, according to a new policy paper from the International Monetary Fund. Revenues from extractive industries (EIs) have major macroeconomic implications. The EIs account for over half of government revenues in many petroleum-rich countries, and for over 20 percent in mining countries. About one-third of IMF member countries find (or could find) resource revenues “macro-critical” – especially with large numbers of recent new discoveries and planned oil, gas, and mining developments. IMF policy advice and technical assistance in the field has massively expanded in recent years – driven by demand from member countries and supported by increased donor finance. The paper sets out the analytical framework underpinning, and key elements of, the country-specific advice given. Also available in Arabic: ????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????????: ??????? ???????? Also available in French: Régimes fiscaux des industries extractives: conception et application Also available in Spanish: Regímenes fiscales de las industrias extractivas: Diseño y aplicación
Download or read book Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mr.Carlo A Sdralevich and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-09 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
