Download or read book Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Tony Addison and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. We choose nine Sub Saharan African countries that are heavily dependent on a single agricultural commodity for a significant portion of their income. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a structural nonlinear dynamic model. The novel aspect of this study is that we adopt the methodology of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011a) to determine whether the response of per capita GDP for the selected Sub Saharan African countries is different to unexpected increases in agricultural commodity prices as opposed to decreases in prices. We conclude that there is very little evidence that an unanticipated price increase (decrease) lead to a significantly different response in per capita incomes.
Download or read book Distortions to Agriculture and Economic Growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Kym Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks written by Jan Dehn and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks, and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex-post shocks, and ex-ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts, and it is both theoretically, and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous. He shows that the interaction between policy, and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject: 1) It deals with issues of endogeneity, without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency. 2) It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks. 3) It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock, and uncertainty specifications. The author resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income). He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.
Download or read book Real Overvaluation Terms of Trade Shocks and the Cost to Agriculture in Sub Saharan Africa written by Ibrahim Elbadawi and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1992 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The observed decline of agriculture and the general worsening of economic conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa are linked to economic distortions, which limit growth.
Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.
Download or read book Price distortions and economic growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Kym Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak written by Antonio Ciccone and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast with those of Bazzi and Blattman, who argue that the new dataset rejects that commodity price downturns cause civil wars. The reason is that I calculate commodity price shocks using time invariant (fixed) export shares as commodity weights. Bazzi and Blattman also calculate commodity price shocks using export shares as commodity weights but the exports shares they use are time varying. Using time-invariant export shares as commodity weights ensures that time variation in price shocks solely reflects changes in international commodity prices. Price shocks based on time varying export shares partly reflect (possibly endogenous) changes in the quantity and variety of countries' exports, which jeopardizes causal estimation. I also show that setting time-invariant export shares equal to average export shares over the sample period, can be a way of dealing with attenuation bias due to mismeasured export shares. When I differentiate between agricultural commodities on the one hand and minerals, oil, and gas on the other, I find stronger increases in the risk of civil war outbreak following downturns in agricultural commodity prices.
Download or read book Agricultural Growth Linkages in Sub Saharan Africa written by Christopher L. Delgado and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much extra net income growth can be had in rural areas of Africa by increasing the spending power of local households? The answer depends on how rural households spend increments to income, whether the items desired can be imported to the local area in response to increased demand, and, if not, whether increased demand will lead to new local production or simply to price rises. For every dollar in new farm income earned, at least one additional-tional dollar could be realized from growth multipliers, according to Agricultural Growth Linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa, Research Report 107, by Christopher L. Delgado, Jane Hopkins, and Valerie A. Kelly, with Peter Hazell, Anna A. McKenna, Peter Gruhn, Behjat Hojjati, Jayashree Sil, and Claude Courbois.
Download or read book International Commodity Prices Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub Saharan Africa written by Angus Deaton and published by Princeton University International Finance Section, Department of Econmics. This book was released on 1995 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks written by Jan Dehn and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity export dependency confers ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty upon producing countries. What reduces growth is not the prospect of volatile world prices, but the actual realization of negative shocks.Dehn estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts and it is both theoretically and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous.He shows that the interaction between policy and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject:- It deals with issues of endogeneity without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency.- It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks.- It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock and uncertainty specifications.Dehn resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income).He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.This paper - a product of Rural Development, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the impact of commodity price risks on developing economies. The author may be contacted at [email protected].
Download or read book The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks written by Dehn and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-10-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
Download or read book Socioeconomic Shocks and Africa s Development Agenda written by Evans Osabuohien and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-11-10 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates how African countries respond to socioeconomic shocks, drawing out lessons to help to inform future policy and development efforts. The challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic affected all sectors of the economy, exposing substantial structural weaknesses and complexities in supply chains and logistics across the African continent. This book examines the disruptive impact of the pandemic across Africa. However, it also goes beyond the current crisis to investigate how socioeconomic pressures in general impact commodity prices, national budgeting processes, food, business, energy sectors, education, health, and sanitation. Overall, the book presents evidence-based solutions and policy recommendations to enable readers to improve resilience and responses to future crises. The insights provided by this book will be of interest to policymakers and development agencies, as well as to researchers of global development, politics, economics, business, and African studies.
Download or read book OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021 2030 written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2021-07-05 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.
Download or read book OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016 2025 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2016-07-04 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries and key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina.
Download or read book Shared Prosperity written by Maurizio Bussolo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-04-08 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Bank has recently defined two strategic goals: ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. Shared prosperity is measured as income growth among the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution in the population. The two goals should be achieved in a way that is sustainable from economic, social, and environmental perspectives. Shared Prosperity: Paving the Way in Europe and Central Asia focuses on the second goal and proposes a framework that integrates both macroeconomic and microeconomic elements. The macro variables, particularly changes in relative prices, affect income growth differentially along the income distribution; at the same time, the microeconomic distribution of assets at the bottom of the distribution determines the capacity of the bottom 40 to take advantage of the macroeconomic environment and contribute to overall growth. Growth and the incidence of growth are thus understood as jointly determined processes. Besides this integration, the main input of the framework is the finding that the trade-off between growth and equity may be an issue only in the short run. Over the long run, redistribution policies that increase the productive capacity of the bottom 40 percent enhance the overall growth potential of the economy. This report considers shared prosperity in Europe and Central Asia and concludes that the performance in sharing prosperity during the period 2000–10 was good, on average, but heterogeneous across countries and that sustainability is unclear. It also describes examples of the application of the framework to selected countries in the region. Finally, the report provides a tool to structure the policy discussion around the goal of shared prosperity and explains that specific policy links associated with the goal can be established only after a thorough analysis of the country-specific context.
Download or read book OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018 2027 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2018-07-03 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.
