Download or read book Advances in Markov Switching Models written by James D. Hamilton and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.
Download or read book Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models written by Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-24 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past decade has seen powerful new computational tools for modeling which combine a Bayesian approach with recent Monte simulation techniques based on Markov chains. This book is the first to offer a systematic presentation of the Bayesian perspective of finite mixture modelling. The book is designed to show finite mixture and Markov switching models are formulated, what structures they imply on the data, their potential uses, and how they are estimated. Presenting its concepts informally without sacrificing mathematical correctness, it will serve a wide readership including statisticians as well as biologists, economists, engineers, financial and market researchers.
Download or read book Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis written by Steven Durlauf and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.
Download or read book State space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Download or read book The Possible Shapes of Recoveries in Markov switching Models written by Frédérique Bec and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nonlinear Financial Econometrics Markov Switching Models Persistence and Nonlinear Cointegration written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-12-08 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes new methods to value equity and model the Markowitz efficient frontier using Markov switching models and provide new evidence and solutions to capture the persistence observed in stock returns across developed and emerging markets.
Download or read book Multifractal Volatility written by Laurent E. Calvet and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2008-10-13 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Calvet and Fisher present a powerful, new technique for volatility forecasting that draws on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics and provides a unified treatment of the use of multifractal techniques in finance. A large existing literature (e.g., Engle, 1982; Rossi, 1995) models volatility as an average of past shocks, possibly with a noise component. This approach often has difficulty capturing sharp discontinuities and large changes in financial volatility. Their research has shown the advantages of modelling volatility as subject to abrupt regime changes of heterogeneous durations. Using the intuition that some economic phenomena are long-lasting while others are more transient, they permit regimes to have varying degrees of persistence. By drawing on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics, they show how to construct high-dimensional regime-switching models that are easy to estimate, and substantially outperform some of the best traditional forecasting models such as GARCH. The goal of Multifractal Volatility is to popularize the approach by presenting these exciting new developments to a wider audience. They emphasize both theoretical and empirical applications, beginning with a style that is easily accessible and intuitive in early chapters, and extending to the most rigorous continuous-time and equilibrium pricing formulations in final chapters. Presents a powerful new technique for forecasting volatility Leads the reader intuitively from existing volatility techniques to the frontier of research in this field by top scholars at major universities The first comprehensive book on multifractal techniques in finance, a cutting-edge field of research
Download or read book Optimal Forecasts from Markov Switching Models written by Tom Boot and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Incorporating Vintage Differences and Forecasts Into Markov Switching Models written by Jeremy Nalewaik and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Analytical Derivatives for Markov Switching Models written by Jeff Gable and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Model Selection and Some Extensions of Markov Switching Models written by Jing Zhang and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Further Applications of Higher order Markov Chains and Developments in Regime switching Models written by Xiaojing Xi and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider a higher-order hidden Markov models (HMM), also called weak HMM (WHMM), to capture the regime-switching and memory properties of financial time series. A technique of transforming a WHMM into a regular HMM is employed, which in turn enables the development of recursive filters. With the use of the change of reference probability measure methodology and EM algorithm, a dynamic estimation of model parameters is obtained. Several applications and extensions were investigated. WHMM is adopted in describing the evolution of asset prices and its performance is examined through a forecasting analysis. This is extended to the case when the drift and volatility components of the logreturns are modulated by two independent WHMMs that are not necessarily having the same number of states. Numerical experiment is conducted based on simulated data to demonstrate the ability of our estimation approach in recovering the true model parameters. The analogue of recursive filtering and parameter estimation to handle multivariate data is also established. Some aspects of statistical inference arising from model implementation such as the assessment of model adequacy and goodness of fit are examined and addressed. The usefulness of the WHMM framework is tested on an asset allocation problem whereby investors determine the optimal investment strategy for the next time step through the results of the algorithm procedure. As an application in the modelling of yield curves, it is shown that the WHMM, with its memory-capturing mechanism, outperforms the usual HMM. A mean-reverting interest rate model is further developed whereby its parameters are modulated by a WHMM along with the formulation of a self-tuning parameter estimation. Finally, we propose an inverse Stieltjes moment approach to solve the inverse problem of calibration inherent in an HMM-based regime-switching set-up.
Download or read book State Space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-11-03 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data. The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Download or read book Markov Switching Vector Autoregressions written by Hans-Martin Krolzig and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.
Download or read book Hidden Markov Models for Time Series written by Walter Zucchini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses. After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. The book demonstrates how HMMs can be applied to a wide range of types of time series: continuous-valued, circular, multivariate, binary, bounded and unbounded counts, and categorical observations. It also discusses how to employ the freely available computing environment R to carry out the computations. Features Presents an accessible overview of HMMs Explores a variety of applications in ecology, finance, epidemiology, climatology, and sociology Includes numerous theoretical and programming exercises Provides most of the analysed data sets online New to the second edition A total of five chapters on extensions, including HMMs for longitudinal data, hidden semi-Markov models and models with continuous-valued state process New case studies on animal movement, rainfall occurrence and capture-recapture data
Download or read book Markov Switching Vector Autoregressions written by Hans-Martin Krolzig and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-03-12 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.
Download or read book Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov switching Models written by Cem Cakmakli and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
