Download or read book Adaptive Beliefs and the Volatility of Asset Prices written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I present a simple model of an evolutionary financial market with heterogeneous agents, based on the concept of adaptive belief systems introduced by Brock and Hommes (1997a). Agents choose between different forecast rules based on past performance, resulting in an evolutionary dynamics across predictor choice coupled to the equilibrium dynamics. The model generates endogenous price fluctuations with similar statistical properties as those observed in real return data, such as fat tails and volatility clustering. These similarities are demonstrated for data from the British, German, and Austrian stock market. (author's abstract).
Download or read book Adaptive beliefs and the volatility of asset price written by Andrea Gaunersdorfer and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nonlinear Adaptive Beliefs and the Dynamics of Financial Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We introduce a simple asset pricing model with two types of adaptively learning traders, fundamentalists and technical traders. Traders update their beliefs according to past performance and to market conditions. The model generates endogenous price fluctuations and captures some stylized facts observed in real returns data, such as excess volatility, fat tails of returns distributions, volatility clustering, and long memory. We show that the results are quite robust w.r.t. to different choices for the performance measure. (author's abstract).
Download or read book Market Mood Adaptive Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics written by Ilaria Foroni and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters written by Christos Koulovatianos and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Heterogeneous Beliefs Asset Prices and Volatility in a Pure Exchange Economy written by Tao Li and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends the Lucas (1978) model to a setting in which investors have heterogeneous beliefs about the structure of a dividend process. By assuming that all investors have logarithmic preferences and different subjective discount rates, we can obtain a closed-form representation of the stock price. This closed-form solution enables us to analyze the dynamics of the stock price and its volatility. The model can simutaneously generate several well-known empirical facts - excessive volatility, leverage effects, and positive relationships between price and trading volume and between volatility and volume. All of these effects are driven by the different beliefs of investors.
Download or read book Artificial Neural Networks ICANN 2001 written by Georg Dorffner and published by Springer. This book was released on 2003-05-15 with total page 1248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is based on the papers presented at the International Conference on Arti?cial Neural Networks, ICANN 2001, from August 21–25, 2001 at the - enna University of Technology, Austria. The conference is organized by the A- trian Research Institute for Arti?cal Intelligence in cooperation with the Pattern Recognition and Image Processing Group and the Center for Computational - telligence at the Vienna University of Technology. The ICANN conferences were initiated in 1991 and have become the major European meeting in the ?eld of neural networks. From about 300 submitted papers, the program committee selected 171 for publication. Each paper has been reviewed by three program committee m- bers/reviewers. We would like to thank all the members of the program comm- tee and the reviewers for their great e?ort in the reviewing process and helping us to set up a scienti?c program of high quality. In addition, we have invited eight speakers; three of their papers are also included in the proceedings. We would like to thank the European Neural Network Society (ENNS) for their support. We acknowledge the ?nancial support of Austrian Airlines, A- trian Science Foundation (FWF) under the contract SFB 010, Austrian Society ̈ for Arti?cial Intelligence (OGAI), Bank Austria, and the Vienna Convention Bureau. We would like to express our sincere thanks to A. Flexer, W. Horn, K. Hraby, F. Leisch, C. Schittenkopf, and A. Weingessel. The conference and the proceedings would not have been possible without their enormous contri- tion.
Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.
Download or read book A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing written by Hersh Shefrin and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2008-05-19 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition
Download or read book Asset Price Volatility and Trading Volume with Rational Beliefs written by Ho-Mou Wu and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a model of speculative trading in a large economy with a continuum of investors. In our model the investors are assumed to have diverse beliefs which are rational in the sense of being compatible with observed data.We demonstrate the existence of price amplification effects and show that the equilibrium prices can be higher or lower than the rational expectation equilibrium price. It is also shown that trading volume is positively related to the directions of price changes. Moreover, we study how asset price volatility and trading volume are influenced by belief structures, short selling constraints and the amount of fund available for investment.
Download or read book Subjective Beliefs and Asset Prices written by Renxuan Wang and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These results support models featuring heterogeneous agents with persistent subjective growth expectations. In the second chapter, I propose and test a unifying hypothesis to explain both cross-sectional return anomalies and subjective return expectation errors: some investors falsely ignore the dynamics of discount rates when forming return expectations. Consistent with the hypothesis: 1) stocks' expected cash flow growth and idiosyncratic volatility explain significant cross-sectional variation of analysts' return forecast errors; 2). a measure of mispricing at the firm level strongly predicts stock returns, even among stocks in the S&P500 and at long horizon; 3). a tradable mispricing factor explains the CAPM alphas of 12 leading anomalies including investment, profitability, beta, idiosyncratic volatility and cash flow duration.
Download or read book Global Analysis of Dynamic Models in Economics and Finance written by Gian Italo Bischi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-08-07 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essays in this special volume survey some of the most recent advances in the global analysis of dynamic models for economics, finance and the social sciences. They deal in particular with a range of topics from mathematical methods as well as numerous applications including recent developments on asset pricing, heterogeneous beliefs, global bifurcations in complementarity games, international subsidy games and issues in economic geography. A number of stochastic dynamic models are also analysed. The book is a collection of essays in honour of the 60th birthday of Laura Gardini.
Download or read book Are Stock Markets Really Like Beauty Contests Empirical Evidence of Higher Order Belief s Impact on Asset Prices written by Pierre Monnin and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goal of this paper is to assess, for the first time, the empirical impact of Keynes' beauty contest, or higher order beliefs, on asset price volatility. The paper shows that heterogeneous expectations induce higher order beliefs and that heterogeneous expectation asset pricing models theoretically generate more volatility than rational expectation models. The paper also explains how, with some assumptions on the distribution of public and private information, a model with higher order beliefs can be empirically estimated. The model is then applied to annual data of the American stock market. The results show that a model with higher order beliefs generates a level of volatility in line with the price volatility observed on the market.
Download or read book A Crisis of Beliefs written by Nicola Gennaioli and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-11 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How investor expectations move markets and the economy The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A Crisis of Beliefs makes us rethink the financial crisis and the nature of economic risk. In this authoritative and comprehensive book, two of today’s most insightful economists reveal how our beliefs shape financial markets, lead to expansions of credit and leverage, and expose the economy to major risks. Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer carefully walk readers through the unraveling of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing meltdown of the US financial system, and then present new evidence to illustrate the destabilizing role played by the beliefs of home buyers, investors, and regulators. Using the latest research in psychology and behavioral economics, they present a new theory of belief formation that explains why the financial crisis came as such a shock to so many people—and how financial and economic instability persist. A must-read for anyone seeking insights into financial markets, A Crisis of Beliefs shows how even the smartest market participants and regulators did not fully appreciate the extent of economic risk, and offers a new framework for understanding today’s unpredictable financial waters.
Download or read book Long Memory in Economics written by Gilles Teyssière and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-22 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assembles three different strands of long memory analysis: statistical literature on the properties of, and tests for, LRD processes; mathematical literature on the stochastic processes involved; and models from economic theory providing plausible micro foundations for the occurrence of long memory in economics.
Download or read book Nonlinearity Bifurcation and Chaos written by Jan Awrejcewicz and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nonlinearity, Bifurcation and Chaos - Theory and Application is an edited book focused on introducing both theoretical and application oriented approaches in science and engineering. It contains 12 chapters, and is recommended for university teachers, scientists, researchers, engineers, as well as graduate and post-graduate students either working or interested in the field of nonlinearity, bifurcation and chaos.
Download or read book Beliefs Portfolio Constraints Speculation and Asset Pricing written by Nam Dau and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the interaction of borrowing and short-sale constraints and their ultimate effects on asset pricing properties in a simultaneous presence of the constraints in a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous risk aversions and heterogeneous beliefs in the aggregate cash flow growth. The constraints negate the binding of each other, and hence they virtually never bind at once. Instead, there exist clear regions with alternative binding modes of the constraints with different constraints more likely to bind in different states of economy. The borrowing constraint is more active in bad times and the short-sale constraint is so in good times. The constraints bind intermittently--alternately at times--in transitory states of economy where their relative strength is balanced. Qualitatively matching empirically documented patterns of asset prices, I find that the constraints moderate their price effects but amplify their negative volatility effects, thereby can help curb the market volatility. However, a motive for speculation, featured by a speculative premium, arises due to any constraints, and thus can exist in any states of economy, not only in good times.
