Download or read book A Technique for Predicting Surface Wind Distributions of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific written by Ted L. Tsui and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate initial estimates and forecasts of radii of winds over 30 kt and 50 kt around tropical cyclones are important requirements for Navy decision-making and operations. This report describes a diagnostic study of tropical cyclone surface wind distribution that was conducted by using data extracted from tropical cyclone warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, during the period 1966-77. Results from two different data analyses show that: (1) The tangential wind speed along the radial axis decreases exponentially outward from the radius of maximum wind; (2) In addition to persistence, the change of a tropical cyclone's size depends only on the change of the maximum wind; and (3) The asymmetric shape of the isotachs correlates highly to the speed of movement. Based on these findings, a statistical wind-radius forecast model was formulated and tested on independent 1979 data. Results show that a time lag exists between the change of maximum wind and the change of wind radii, which suggests that the wind-pressure gradient adjustments may originate from the inner core of the storm and slowly propagate outward. The results also indicate that the statistical forecast model possesses a skill equal to that of an average JTWC forecaster's wind radius forecast. (Author).
Download or read book Analysis and Synthesis of Hurricane Wind Patterns Over Lake Okeechobee Florida written by Robert W. Schloemer and published by . This book was released on 1954 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion WPCLPR written by Xu Yiming and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book National Plan for Tropical Cyclone Research written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 652 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lists citations with abstracts for aerospace related reports obtained from world wide sources and announces documents that have recently been entered into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database.
Download or read book Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones From Science To Mitigation written by Johnny C L Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Download or read book Landfalling tropical cyclones physical processes forecasting and impacts written by Yihong Duan and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-12-29 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Surface Wind Field Analyses of Tropical Cyclones During TCS 08 written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this research is to investigate tropical cyclone wind field structure and development utilizing comprehensive observation sets collected during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS-08) and The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC). Rare aircraft measurements in the western North Pacific are utilized to define surface wind distributions of TY Nuri, TY Sinlaku, and STY Jangmi. Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) surface winds are compared to Global Positioning System (GPS) dropwindsondes to determine eyewall slope and flight-level reduction factors. The combined SFMR and dropwindsonde wind speed observations are highly correlated (r = 0.88) with a RMSE of 2.58 m s-1. The three mature storm systems had a combined mean slant reduction factor and relative slope similar to that observed in Atlantic hurricanes. Analysis accuracy was defined by the RMSE between H*Wind analyses and 0-150 m-average dropwindsonde wind speeds. Satellite observations had the largest speed RMSE and the SFMR observations had the smallest speed RMSE. The ECMWF analyses had the largest intensity differences from the JTWC best-track intensity and SFMR-based analyses had the smallest intensity differences from the JTWC best-track intensity.
Download or read book An Evaluation of the Real Time Tropical Cyclone Forecast Skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the Western North Pacific written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones is evaluated and it is shown that model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The evaluation was conducted during the 1990 operational testing of procedure to improve the initial analysis or specification of tropical cyclones (TCs) in NOGAPS by the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC). The NOGAPS TC analysis procedure generates synthetic TC observations based on operational vortex data (e.g., location and maximum surface wind speed) and then adds the observations to the observational data base with flags to force their assimilation. Results from the first year of testing were favorable, despite intermittent application of the procedure.
Download or read book Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure and Structure Changes written by Michael Robert Fisher and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Subjective and objective analyses of near-surface winds are utilized to estimate tropical cyclone (TC) size over a region of the western North Pacific. An empirical outer wind profile assuming partial conservation of angular momentum is utilized to determine the radial extent of cyclonic winds, which may be defined as the TC size in four categories. The first method uses the radii of either 3O-kt or 35-kt wind in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) warnings during 1989-1994 to estimate the size categories each 6 h. A second subjective method based on satellite imagery has more cases of large and midget TCs than the first method. A multi-quadric interpolation (MQI) of composited wind observations over +/- 12 h is tested as a more objective method of estimating the 30-kt or 35-kt wind radii. For two case studies, these MQI-derived size estimates generally agree with the first method, although the MQI values varied more in time depending on the data distribution. It is concluded that a combination of the second and third methods could provide supporting data for estimating the outer wind profiles for the JTWC wind warnings.
Download or read book Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure and Structure Changes written by Michael Robert Fisher and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Subjective and objective analyses of near-surface winds are utilized to estimate tropical cyclone (TC) size over a region of the western North Pacific. An empirical outer wind profile assuming partial conservation of angular momentum is utilized to determine the radial extent of cyclonic winds, which may be defined as the TC size in four categories. The first method uses the radii of either 3O-kt or 35-kt wind in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) warnings during 1989-1994 to estimate the size categories each 6 h. A second subjective method based on satellite imagery has more cases of large and midget TCs than the first method. A multi-quadric interpolation (MQI) of composited wind observations over +/- 12 h is tested as a more objective method of estimating the 30-kt or 35-kt wind radii. For two case studies, these MQI-derived size estimates generally agree with the first method, although the MQI values varied more in time depending on the data distribution. It is concluded that a combination of the second and third methods could provide supporting data for estimating the outer wind profiles for the JTWC wind warnings.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data written by Vernon F. Dvorak and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book World Weather Watch written by World Meteorological Organization and published by World Meteorological Organization. This book was released on 1979 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book A Statistical dynamical Approach to Intraseasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific written by Bryan D. Mundhenk and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We have developed a combined statistical-dynamical prediction scheme to predict the probability of tropical cyclone (TC) formation at daily, 2.5° horizontal resolution across the western North Pacific at intraseasonal lead times. Through examination of previous research and our own analysis, we chose five variables to represent the favorability of the climate system to support tropical cyclogenesis. These so-called large-scale environmental factors (LSEFs) include: low-level relative vorticity, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, Coriolis, and upper-level divergence. Logistic regression was employed to generate a statistical model representing the probability of TC formation at every grid point based on these LSEFs. Thorough verification of zero-lead hindcasts reveals this model displays skill and potential value for risk adverse customers. In particular, these hindcasts had a positive Brier skill score of 0.03 and a skillful relative operating characteristic skill score of 0.68. The fully coupled, one-tier NCEP Climate Forecast System was used as the dynamical model with which to forecast the LSEFs and, in turn, force the regression model. A series of individual TC case studies were conducted to demonstrate the predictive potential, at intraseasonal leads, of our statistical-dynamical method. Lastly, we investigated the applicability of intraseasonal forecasts to military planning.
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
