Download or read book A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability written by Michael W. Brandt and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simulation-based method for solving discrete-time portfolio choice problems involving non-standard preferences, a large number of assets with arbitrary return distribution, and, most importantly, a large number of state variables with potentially path-dependent or non-stationary dynamics. The method is flexible enough to accommodate intermediate consumption, portfolio constraints, parameter and model uncertainty, and learning. We first establish the properties of the method for the portfolio choice between a stock index and cash when the stock returns are either iid or predictable by the dividend yield. We then explore the problem of an investor who takes into account the predictability of returns but is uncertain about the parameters of the data generating process. The investor chooses the portfolio anticipating that future data realizations will contain useful information to learn about the true parameter values.

Download or read book Dynamic Portfolio Choice written by Michael W. Brandt and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simulation-based method for solving realistic portfolio choice problems that potentially involve non-standard preferences and a large number of assets with arbitrary return distribution. Specifically, the return distribution can be time-varying as a function of many observable or unobservable state variables and can even be path-dependent. Furthermore, the method is flexible enough to accommodate intermediate consumption, parameter and model uncertainty, and portfolio constraints. We first establish the properties of the method for the choice between a stock index and cash when the stock returns are either iid or predictable by the dividend yield. We then explore the optimal asset allocation across ten industry portfolios that exhibit momentum through its empirical pattern of own- and cross-serial correlations of returns.

Download or read book Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Bayesian Learning written by Georgios Skoulakis and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the importance of parameter uncertainty and learning in the context of dynamic portfolio choice. In a discrete time setting, we consider a Bayesian investor who faces parameter uncertainty and solves her portfolio choice problem while updating her beliefs about the parameters. For different return data generating processes, including i.i.d. returns, autoregressive returns, and exogenous predictability, we show how the investor makes dynamic portfolio choices, taking into account that she will learn from future data. We find that, in general, learning introduces negative horizon effects and that ignoring parameter uncertainty may lead to significant losses in certainty equivalent return on wealth. However, the significance of learning is reduced when the investor uses more past data in her estimation and/or when her risk aversion increases. Learning about unconditional expected returns appears to be the most important aspect of the learning process. Using the earnings-to-price ratio as a predictor and an empirical Bayes prior, we find that learning reduces, but does not necessarily eliminate, the positive hedging demands induced by predictability and correlation between the return and predictor innovations.

Download or read book Portfolio Choice Problems written by Nicolas Chapados and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-07-12 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This brief offers a broad, yet concise, coverage of portfolio choice, containing both application-oriented and academic results, along with abundant pointers to the literature for further study. It cuts through many strands of the subject, presenting not only the classical results from financial economics but also approaches originating from information theory, machine learning and operations research. This compact treatment of the topic will be valuable to students entering the field, as well as practitioners looking for a broad coverage of the topic.

Download or read book Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice Theory written by Kerry Back and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 745 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today all would agree that Mexico and the United States have never been closer--that the fates of the two republics are intertwined. Mexico has become an intimate part of life in almost every community in the United States, through immigration, imported produce, business ties, or illegal drugs. It is less a neighbor than a sibling; no matter what our differences, it is intricately a part of our existence. In the fully updated second edition of Mexico: What Everyone Needs to Know(R), Roderic Ai Camp gives readers the most essential information about our sister republic to the south. Camp organizes chapters around major themes--security and violence, economic development, foreign relations, the colonial heritage, and more. He asks questions that take us beyond the headlines: Why does Mexico have so much drug violence? What was the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement? How democratic is Mexico? Who were Benito Juarez and Pancho Villa? What is the PRI (the Institutional Revolutionary Party)? The answers are sometimes surprising. Despite ratification of NAFTA, for example, Mexico has fallen behind Brazil and Chile in economic growth and rates of poverty. Camp explains that lack of labor flexibility, along with low levels of transparency and high levels of corruption, make Mexico less competitive than some other Latin American countries. The drug trade, of course, enhances corruption and feeds on poverty; approximately 450,000 Mexicans now work in this sector. Brisk, clear, and informed, Mexico: What Everyone Needs To Know(R) offers a valuable primer for anyone interested in the past, present, and future of our neighbor to the South. Links to video interviews with prominent Mexicans appear throughout the text. The videos can be accessed at through The Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Latin American History at http: //latinamericanhistory.oxfordre.com/page/videos/

Download or read book Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Linear Rebalancing Rules written by Ciamac C. Moallemi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider a broad class of dynamic portfolio optimization problems that allow for complex models of return predictability, transaction costs, trading constraints, and risk considerations. Determining an optimal policy in this general setting is almost always intractable. We propose a class of linear rebalancing rules, and describe an efficient computational procedure to optimize with this class. We illustrate this method in the context of portfolio execution, and show that it achieves near optimal performance. We consider another numerical example involving dynamic trading with mean-variance preferences and demonstrate that our method can result in economically large benefits.

Download or read book Developments in Mean Variance Efficient Portfolio Selection written by M. Agarwal and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-11 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses new determinants for optimal portfolio selection. It reviews the existing modelling framework and creates mean-variance efficient portfolios from the securities companies on the National Stock Exchange. Comparisons enable researchers to rank them in terms of their effectiveness in the present day Indian securities market.

Download or read book Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps in Finance written by Eckhard Platen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-07-23 with total page 868 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In financial and actuarial modeling and other areas of application, stochastic differential equations with jumps have been employed to describe the dynamics of various state variables. The numerical solution of such equations is more complex than that of those only driven by Wiener processes, described in Kloeden & Platen: Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations (1992). The present monograph builds on the above-mentioned work and provides an introduction to stochastic differential equations with jumps, in both theory and application, emphasizing the numerical methods needed to solve such equations. It presents many new results on higher-order methods for scenario and Monte Carlo simulation, including implicit, predictor corrector, extrapolation, Markov chain and variance reduction methods, stressing the importance of their numerical stability. Furthermore, it includes chapters on exact simulation, estimation and filtering. Besides serving as a basic text on quantitative methods, it offers ready access to a large number of potential research problems in an area that is widely applicable and rapidly expanding. Finance is chosen as the area of application because much of the recent research on stochastic numerical methods has been driven by challenges in quantitative finance. Moreover, the volume introduces readers to the modern benchmark approach that provides a general framework for modeling in finance and insurance beyond the standard risk-neutral approach. It requires undergraduate background in mathematical or quantitative methods, is accessible to a broad readership, including those who are only seeking numerical recipes, and includes exercises that help the reader develop a deeper understanding of the underlying mathematics.

Download or read book Handbook of Fixed Income Securities written by Pietro Veronesi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-04-04 with total page 630 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive guide to the current theories and methodologies intrinsic to fixed-income securities Written by well-known experts from a cross section of academia and finance, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities features a compilation of the most up-to-date fixed-income securities techniques and methods. The book presents crucial topics of fixed income in an accessible and logical format. Emphasizing empirical research and real-life applications, the book explores a wide range of topics from the risk and return of fixed-income investments, to the impact of monetary policy on interest rates, to the post-crisis new regulatory landscape. Well organized to cover critical topics in fixed income, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is divided into eight main sections that feature: • An introduction to fixed-income markets such as Treasury bonds, inflation-protected securities, money markets, mortgage-backed securities, and the basic analytics that characterize them • Monetary policy and fixed-income markets, which highlight the recent empirical evidence on the central banks’ influence on interest rates, including the recent quantitative easing experiments • Interest rate risk measurement and management with a special focus on the most recent techniques and methodologies for asset-liability management under regulatory constraints • The predictability of bond returns with a critical discussion of the empirical evidence on time-varying bond risk premia, both in the United States and abroad, and their sources, such as liquidity and volatility • Advanced topics, with a focus on the most recent research on term structure models and econometrics, the dynamics of bond illiquidity, and the puzzling dynamics of stocks and bonds • Derivatives markets, including a detailed discussion of the new regulatory landscape after the financial crisis and an introduction to no-arbitrage derivatives pricing • Further topics on derivatives pricing that cover modern valuation techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulations, volatility surfaces, and no-arbitrage pricing with regulatory constraints • Corporate and sovereign bonds with a detailed discussion of the tools required to analyze default risk, the relevant empirical evidence, and a special focus on the recent sovereign crises A complete reference for practitioners in the fields of finance, business, applied statistics, econometrics, and engineering, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is also a useful supplementary textbook for graduate and MBA-level courses on fixed-income securities, risk management, volatility, bonds, derivatives, and financial markets. Pietro Veronesi, PhD, is Roman Family Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he teaches Masters and PhD-level courses in fixed income, risk management, and asset pricing. Published in leading academic journals and honored by numerous awards, his research focuses on stock and bond valuation, return predictability, bubbles and crashes, and the relation between asset prices and government policies.

Download or read book Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science Financial Engineering written by John R. Birge and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2007-11-16 with total page 1026 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The remarkable growth of financial markets over the past decades has been accompanied by an equally remarkable explosion in financial engineering, the interdisciplinary field focusing on applications of mathematical and statistical modeling and computational technology to problems in the financial services industry. The goals of financial engineering research are to develop empirically realistic stochastic models describing dynamics of financial risk variables, such as asset prices, foreign exchange rates, and interest rates, and to develop analytical, computational and statistical methods and tools to implement the models and employ them to design and evaluate financial products and processes to manage risk and to meet financial goals. This handbook describes the latest developments in this rapidly evolving field in the areas of modeling and pricing financial derivatives, building models of interest rates and credit risk, pricing and hedging in incomplete markets, risk management, and portfolio optimization. Leading researchers in each of these areas provide their perspective on the state of the art in terms of analysis, computation, and practical relevance. The authors describe essential results to date, fundamental methods and tools, as well as new views of the existing literature, opportunities, and challenges for future research.

Download or read book Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability written by Hui Chen and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study an investor's optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem when he is confronted with two possibly misspecified submodels of stock returns: one with IID returns and the other with predictability. We adopt a generalized recursive ambiguity model to accommodate the investor's aversion to model uncertainty. The investor deals with specification doubts by slanting his beliefs about submodels of returns pessimistically, causing his investment strategy to be more conservative than the Bayesian strategy. This effect is especially strong when the submodel with a low Bayesian probability delivers a much smaller continuation value. Unlike in the Bayesian framework, the hedging demand against model uncertainty may cause the investor's stock allocation to decrease sharply given a small doubt of return predictability, even though the predictive variable is large. Adopting the Bayesian strategy can lead to sizable welfare costs for an ambiguity-averse investor, especially when he has a strong prior of return predictability.

Download or read book Decision Making under Uncertainty in Financial Markets written by Jonas Ekblom and published by Linköping University Electronic Press. This book was released on 2018-09-13 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis addresses the topic of decision making under uncertainty, with particular focus on financial markets. The aim of this research is to support improved decisions in practice, and related to this, to advance our understanding of financial markets. Stochastic optimization provides the tools to determine optimal decisions in uncertain environments, and the optimality conditions of these models produce insights into how financial markets work. To be more concrete, a great deal of financial theory is based on optimality conditions derived from stochastic optimization models. Therefore, an important part of the development of financial theory is to study stochastic optimization models that step-by-step better capture the essence of reality. This is the motivation behind the focus of this thesis, which is to study methods that in relation to prevailing models that underlie financial theory allow additional real-world complexities to be properly modeled. The overall purpose of this thesis is to develop and evaluate stochastic optimization models that support improved decisions under uncertainty on financial markets. The research into stochastic optimization in financial literature has traditionally focused on problem formulations that allow closed-form or `exact' numerical solutions; typically through the application of dynamic programming or optimal control. The focus in this thesis is on two other optimization methods, namely stochastic programming and approximate dynamic programming, which open up opportunities to study new classes of financial problems. More specifically, these optimization methods allow additional and important aspects of many real-world problems to be captured. This thesis contributes with several insights that are relevant for both financial and stochastic optimization literature. First, we show that the modeling of several real-world aspects traditionally not considered in the literature are important components in a model which supports corporate hedging decisions. Specifically, we document the importance of modeling term premia, a rich asset universe and transaction costs. Secondly, we provide two methodological contributions to the stochastic programming literature by: (i) highlighting the challenges of realizing improved decisions through more stages in stochastic programming models; and (ii) developing an importance sampling method that can be used to produce high solution quality with few scenarios. Finally, we design an approximate dynamic programming model that gives close to optimal solutions to the classic, and thus far unsolved, portfolio choice problem with constant relative risk aversion preferences and transaction costs, given many risky assets and a large number of time periods.

Download or read book Three Essays on the Effect of Learning and Predictability on Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Strategies and Asset Prices written by Yihong Xia and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Download or read book Portfolio Construction and Analytics written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-23 with total page 579 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed, multi-disciplinary approach to investment analytics Portfolio Construction and Analytics provides an up-to-date understanding of the analytic investment process for students and professionals alike. With complete and detailed coverage of portfolio analytics and modeling methods, this book is unique in its multi-disciplinary approach. Investment analytics involves the input of a variety of areas, and this guide provides the perspective of data management, modeling, software resources, and investment strategy to give you a truly comprehensive understanding of how today's firms approach the process. Real-world examples provide insight into analytics performed with vendor software, and references to analytics performed with open source software will prove useful to both students and practitioners. Portfolio analytics refers to all of the methods used to screen, model, track, and evaluate investments. Big data, regulatory change, and increasing risk is forcing a need for a more coherent approach to all aspects of investment analytics, and this book provides the strong foundation and critical skills you need. Master the fundamental modeling concepts and widely used analytics Learn the latest trends in risk metrics, modeling, and investment strategies Get up to speed on the vendor and open-source software most commonly used Gain a multi-angle perspective on portfolio analytics at today's firms Identifying investment opportunities, keeping portfolios aligned with investment objectives, and monitoring risk and performance are all major functions of an investment firm that relies heavily on analytics output. This reliance will only increase in the face of market changes and increased regulatory pressure, and practitioners need a deep understanding of the latest methods and models used to build a robust investment strategy. Portfolio Construction and Analytics is an invaluable resource for portfolio management in any capacity.

Download or read book Semiparametric Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Multiple Conditioning Variables written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: