Download or read book A Simple Specification Test of the Random Walk Hypothesis written by Andrew Wen-Chuan Lo and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks written by A. Craig MacKinlay and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we test the random walk hypothesis for weekly stock market returns by comparing variance estimators derived from data sampled at different frequencies. The random walk model is strongly rejected for the entire sample period (1962-1985) and for all sub-periods for a variety of aggregate returns indexes and size-sorted portfolios. Although the rejections are largely due to the behavior of small stocks, they cannot be ascribed to either the effects of infrequent trading or time-varying volatilities. Moreover, the rejection of the random walk cannot be interpreted as supporting a mean-reverting stationary model of asset prices, but is more consistent with a specific nonstationary alternative hypothesis.
Download or read book Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks written by Andrew W. Lo and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we test the random walk hypothesis for weekly stock market returns by comparing variance estimators derived from data sampled at different frequencies. The random walk model is strongly rejected for the entire sample period (1962-1985) and for all sub-periods for a variety of aggregate returns indexes and size-sorted portfolios. Although the rejections are largely due to the behavior of small stocks, they cannot be ascribed to either the effects of infrequent trading or time-varying volatilities. Moreover, the rejection of the random walk cannot be interpreted as supporting a mean-reverting stationary model of asset prices, but is more consistent with a specific nonstationary alternative hypothesis.
Download or read book A Non Random Walk Down Wall Street written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-11-14 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future. The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.
Download or read book A Random Walk Down Wall Street The Time Tested Strategy for Successful Investing Ninth Edition written by Burton G. Malkiel and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2007-12-17 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Updated with a new chapter that draws on behavioral finance, the field that studies the psychology of investment decisions, the bestselling guide to investing evaluates the full range of financial opportunities.
Download or read book A Non Random Walk Down Wall Street written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2002-01-15 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For 50 years, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk, and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics. Lo and MacKinlay put the random walk hypothesis to the test in this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles.
Download or read book Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis MSEA 2022 written by Gaikar Vilas Bhau and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-12-22 with total page 1514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access book. 2022 International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis(MSEA 2022) will be held in Dalian, China from May 27 to 29, 2022. Based on probability theory, mathematical statistics studies the statistical regularity of a large number of random phenomena, and infers and forecasts the whole. Economic development is very important to people's life and the country. Through data statistics and analysis, we can quickly understand the law of economic development. This conference combines mathematical statistics and economic analysis for the first time to explore the relationship between them, so as to provide a platform for experts and scholars in the field of mathematical statistics and economic analysis to exchange and discuss.
Download or read book Asset Price Dynamics Volatility and Prediction written by Stephen J. Taylor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-11 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.
Download or read book Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance written by Marco Corazza and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-08-06 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interaction between mathematicians and statisticians has been shown to be an effective approach for dealing with actuarial, insurance and financial problems, both from an academic perspective and from an operative one. The collection of original papers presented in this volume pursues precisely this purpose. It covers a wide variety of subjects in actuarial, insurance and finance fields, all treated in the light of the successful cooperation between the above two quantitative approaches. The papers published in this volume present theoretical and methodological contributions and their applications to real contexts. With respect to the theoretical and methodological contributions, some of the considered areas of investigation are: actuarial models; alternative testing approaches; behavioral finance; clustering techniques; coherent and non-coherent risk measures; credit scoring approaches; data envelopment analysis; dynamic stochastic programming; financial contagion models; financial ratios; intelligent financial trading systems; mixture normality approaches; Monte Carlo-based methods; multicriteria methods; nonlinear parameter estimation techniques; nonlinear threshold models; particle swarm optimization; performance measures; portfolio optimization; pricing methods for structured and non-structured derivatives; risk management; skewed distribution analysis; solvency analysis; stochastic actuarial valuation methods; variable selection models; time series analysis tools. As regards the applications, they are related to real problems associated, among the others, to: banks; collateralized fund obligations; credit portfolios; defined benefit pension plans; double-indexed pension annuities; efficient-market hypothesis; exchange markets; financial time series; firms; hedge funds; non-life insurance companies; returns distributions; socially responsible mutual funds; unit-linked contracts. This book is aimed at academics, Ph.D. students, practitioners, professionals and researchers. But it will also be of interest to readers with some quantitative background knowledge.
Download or read book ECRM 2017 16th European Conference on Research Methods in Business and Management written by Dr Anthony Buckley and published by Academic Conferences and publishing limited. This book was released on 2017 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Financial Valuation and Econometrics written by Kian Guan Lim and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together domains in financial asset pricing and valuation, financial investment theory, econometrics modeling, and the empirical analyses of financial data by applying appropriate econometric techniques. These domains are highly intertwined and should be properly understood in order to correctly and effectively harness the power of data and methods for investment and financial decision-making. The book is targeted at advanced finance undergraduates and beginner professionals performing financial forecasts or empirical modeling who will find it refreshing to see how forecasting is not simply running a least squares regression line across data points, and that there are many minefields and pitfalls to avoid, such as spurious results and incorrect interpretations.
Download or read book The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets written by Anastasios G. E. T. Al MALLIARIS and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-08-06 with total page 844 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets serves as a definitive source for comprehensive and accessible information in futures markets. The emphasis is on the unique characteristics of futures markets that make them worthy of a special volume. In our judgment, futures markets are currently undergoing remarkable changes as trading is shifting from open outcry to electronic and as the traditional functions of hedging and speculation are extended to include futures as an alternative investment vehicle in traditional portfolios. The unique feature of this volume is the selection of five classic papers that lay the foundations of the futures markets and the invitation to the leading academics who do work in the area to write critical surveys in a dozen important topics."--$cProvided by publisher.
Download or read book Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Chaos and Complexity Theory for Management Nonlinear Dynamics written by Banerjee, Santo and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2012-11-30 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although chaos theory refers to the existence between seemingly random events, it has been gaining the attention of science, technology and managements fields. The shift from traditional procedures to the dynamics of chaos and complexity theory has resulted in a new element of complexity thinking, allowing for a greater capability for analyzing and understanding key business processes. Chaos and Complexity Theory for Management: Nonlinear Dynamics explores chaos and complexity theory and its relationship with the understanding of natural chaos in the business environment. Utilizing these theories aids in comprehending the development of businesses as a complex adaptive system.
Download or read book Decision Sciences written by Raghu Nandan Sengupta and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-11-30 with total page 936 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is an endeavour to cover many current, relevant, and essential topics related to decision sciences in a scientific manner. Using this handbook, graduate students, researchers, as well as practitioners from engineering, statistics, sociology, economics, etc. will find a new and refreshing paradigm shift as to how these topics can be put to use beneficially. Starting from the basics to advanced concepts, authors hope to make the readers well aware of the different theoretical and practical ideas, which are the focus of study in decision sciences nowadays. It includes an excellent bibliography/reference/journal list, information about a variety of datasets, illustrated pseudo-codes, and discussion of future trends in research. Covering topics ranging from optimization, networks and games, multi-objective optimization, inventory theory, statistical methods, artificial neural networks, times series analysis, simulation modeling, decision support system, data envelopment analysis, queueing theory, etc., this reference book is an attempt to make this area more meaningful for varied readers. Noteworthy features of this handbook are in-depth coverage of different topics, solved practical examples, unique datasets for a variety of examples in the areas of decision sciences, in-depth analysis of problems through colored charts, 3D diagrams, and discussions about software.
Download or read book Growth Theory Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling written by William A. Brock and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Buz Brock's contribution to economic theory in general and economic dynamics in particular are characterized by an unmatched richness of ideas and by deep theoretical, empirical as well as computational analysis. Brock's contribution to economic dynamics range from one extreme of the field, global stability of stochastic optimal growth models, to another extreme, market instability and nonlinearity in economic and financial modelling and data analysis. But his work also includes environmental and economic policy issues and, more recently, the modelling of markets as complex adaptive systems. This collection of essays reflects Brock's richness of ideas that have motivated economists for more than three decades already and will continue to influence many economists for the next decades to come.' - Cars H. Hommes, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands 'Buz Brock has been, from the beginning of his career, one of the most original thinkers in dynamic economics. His early work showed that growth with random elements could be studied effectively and above all posed exactly the right questions. His more recent work has brought complexity theory to the fore and shown its implications for financial and other markets. In the process, he has both introduced and used econometric tools to show the relevance of his work to empirically observed phenomena. It is very useful to have his work in collected form.' - Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University, US This outstanding collection of William Brock's essays illustrates the power of dynamic modelling to shed light on the forces for stability and instability in economic systems. The articles selected reflect his best work and are indicative both of the type of policy problem that he finds challenging and the complex methodology that he uses to solve them. Also included is an introduction by Brock to his own work, which helps tie together the main aspects of his research to date.
Download or read book Measures of Complexity and Chaos written by Neal B. Abraham and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume serves as a general introduction to the state of the art of quantitatively characterizing chaotic and turbulent behavior. It is the outgrowth of an international workshop on "Quantitative Measures of Dynamical Complexity and Chaos" held at Bryn Mawr College, June 22-24, 1989. The workshop was co-sponsored by the Naval Air Development Center in Warminster, PA and by the NATO Scientific Affairs Programme through its special program on Chaos and Complexity. Meetings on this subject have occurred regularly since the NATO workshop held in June 1983 at Haverford College only two kilometers distant from the site of this latest in the series. At that first meeting, organized by J. Gollub and H. Swinney, quantitative tests for nonlinear dynamics and chaotic behavior were debated and promoted [1). In the six years since, the methods for dimension, entropy and Lyapunov exponent calculations have been applied in many disciplines and the procedures have been refined. Since then it has been necessary to demonstrate quantitatively that a signal is chaotic rather than it being acceptable to observe that "it looks chaotic". Other related meetings have included the Pecos River Ranch meeting in September 1985 of G. Mayer Kress [2) and the reflective and forward looking gathering near Jerusalem organized by M. Shapiro and I. Procaccia in December 1986 [3). This meeting was proof that interest in measuring chaotic and turbulent signals is widespread.
