Download or read book A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations written by Mr.José M. Barrionuevo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-06-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
Download or read book A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations written by José Barrionuevo and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
Download or read book A simple forecasting accuracy criterion under rational expectations written by José M. Barrionuevo and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations written by José M. Barrionuevo and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Roles of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models written by Bennett T. McCallum and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book Empirical Models and Policy Making written by Mary Morgan and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2003-09-02 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection, written by highly-placed practitioners and academic economists, provides a picture of how economic modellers and policy makers interact. The book provides international case studies of particular interactions between models and policy making, and argues that the flow of information is two-way.
Download or read book Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook December 1993 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-01-15 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the private nonfinancial sectors of the affected economies, financial liberalization provided households and businesses with greater access to credit markets. This contributed to the long period of expansion during the 1980s. Partly as a result of major changes to the financial systems, several industrial countries had a boom in asset markets associated with a period of asset accumulation, an unprecedented buildup of debt, a sharp increase in relative asset prices, and related increases in household wealth. The expansion in household financial activity in the United Kingdom during the 1980s was paralleled by a sizable boom in investment spending and an increase in corporate debt. The structure of balance sheets was also affected by mergers and acquisitions that led to a further expansion in corporate debt. New types of bank loans and accounts have prevented even greater disintermediation but have also reduced net interest margins because more deposits now earn market-related rates of return.
Download or read book Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF written by Mr.James M. Boughton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-04-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by policymakers in national finance ministries for objective and internationally comparable projections and policy scenarios. The exercise had begun as a staff initiative, encouraged by the Managing Director (Johannes Witteveen). Gradually, the Executive Board, the Interim Committee, the Group of Seven, and others came to view the discussion of the WEO documents as an important element in their efforts to keep abreast of world economic developments and prospects. Direct and indirect feedback from those discussions informed the staff as to how the exercise should be improved. Driven by this policy relevance, the WEO evolved from a decentralized project that was only haphazardly model-based into a more rigorous and coordinated exercise.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 1992 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-01-01 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights that world economic activity showed signs of revival in the first half of 1992 as some major economies slowly began to emerge from the cyclical downturns of 1990–91. During the next 12 months, world growth is expected to continue to recover at a moderate pace. Following stagnation in 1991, world output is projected to expand by 1 percent in 1992 and by 3 percent in 1993, close to the average growth rate during the past two decades.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-01-01 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines market liberalization policies in a reforming socialist economy. The aim of this paper is to develop a model of such a reforming socialist economy and to explore the consequences of market-oriented policies in the context of such an economy. A model of a socialist economy is presented, incorporating bargaining over wages and employment in the socialized sector and shortages that are reflected in the black market. The model is used to analyze the implications of liberalization policies, including trade liberalization, an administered price increase, and provisions allowing for increased direct foreign investment. The nonsocialized sector is perfectly competitive and produces an output that is different from that of the socialized sector. It has a neoclassical production function using a sector-specific input (say, capital) and labor. The results suggest that reforms may have different effects under different trade regimes and that small price reforms may have perverse effects.
Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Edmund S Phelps and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice written by Robert E. Lucas and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 1981 with total page 734 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book IMF Working Paper written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Are Inflation Targets Good Inflation Forecasts written by Marie Diron and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors show that quantified inflation objectives, which have been adopted by many industrialized countries, can be used as rule-of-thumb forecasting devices. Remarkably, they yield smaller forecast errors than widely used forecasting models and the forecasts of professional experts. Tables and figures.
Download or read book Prediction or Prophecy written by Gregor Betz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-10-06 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
