Download or read book A Peak Load Forecasting Model Case Study written by K. Morgan Macrae and published by Calgary : Canadian Energy Research Institute. This book was released on 1987 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Description of a computer model developed to account for electrical systemfactors, such as demand, time of use, customer profile and planning horizon, and their effects on system peak demand. The model tests the impact ofelectricity price changes on energy consumption and the demand forpower, by sector. Assuming no change in customer class load curves, themodel is thenused to derive a peak load forecast consistent with a long-term forecast ofcustomer class energy sales. The effects of potential load managementprograms and customer-owned electric power generation in specific sectors areassessed by modifying existing customer class load curves and electricitysales predictions.
Download or read book Spatial Electric Load Forecasting written by H. Lee Willis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2002-08-09 with total page 767 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition offers increased coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.
Download or read book Electrical Load Forecasting written by S.A. Soliman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-05-26 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models. Step-by-step guide to model construction Construct, verify, and run short and long term models Accurately evaluate load shape and pricing Creat regional specific electrical load models
Download or read book Long Term Probabilistic Load Forecasting and Normalization with Hourly Information written by Jason R. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The classical approach to long term load forecasting is often limited to the use of peak load and weather information occurring with monthly or annual frequency. The method of using monthly and annual data in forecasting load for time series regression can sometimes lead to inaccurate forecasts, because data of this frequency lacks the requisite number of observations necessary. Load forecasters often have a hard time explaining the errors based on the limited information available through the low resolution data. The increasing usage of Smart Grid and Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) technologies provides the utility load forecasters with high resolution, layered information to improve the load forecasting process. This paper examines the results of a more modern approach, which makes use of high resolution, hourly information to create more accurate and defensible forecasts. The approach has been deployed across many US utilities, including a recent implementation at North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation (NCEMC), which is used as the basis of the case study in this paper. Three key elements of long term load forecasting are being modernized: predictive modeling, scenario analysis and weather normalization.
Download or read book Comparative Models for Electrical Load Forecasting written by Derek W. Bunn and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Takes a practical look at how short-term forecasting has actually been undertaken and is being developed in public utility organizations.
Download or read book Electric Load Forecasting written by Stanford University. Energy Modeling Forum and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes in energy markets over the last decade have made capacity planning by electric utilities increasingly difficult, but also increasingly important to producers and users of energy. In particular, long-range forecasts f the use of electricity have received greater scrutiny, forecasting prolems and methods have become more complex, and results have been subject to greater uncertainty and challenge than before. EPRI, in the Energy Modeling Forum, brought together a working group from utilities, research institutes, government agencies, universities and consulting firms to identify the issues that could have significant impacts on future electricity consumption.
Download or read book Electric Load Forecasting Scenario Design written by Stanford University. Energy Modeling Forum and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Statistical Learning Tools for Electricity Load Forecasting written by Anestis Antoniadis and published by Birkhäuser. This book was released on 2024-09-21 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph explores a set of statistical and machine learning tools that can be effectively utilized for applied data analysis in the context of electricity load forecasting. Drawing on their substantial research and experience with forecasting electricity demand in industrial settings, the authors guide readers through several modern forecasting methods and tools from both industrial and applied perspectives – generalized additive models (GAMs), probabilistic GAMs, functional time series and wavelets, random forests, aggregation of experts, and mixed effects models. A collection of case studies based on sizable high-resolution datasets, together with relevant R packages, then illustrate the implementation of these techniques. Five real datasets at three different levels of aggregation (nation-wide, region-wide, or individual) from four different countries (UK, France, Ireland, and the USA) are utilized to study five problems: short-term point-wise forecasting, selection of relevant variables for prediction, construction of prediction bands, peak demand prediction, and use of individual consumer data. This text is intended for practitioners, researchers, and post-graduate students working on electricity load forecasting; it may also be of interest to applied academics or scientists wanting to learn about cutting-edge forecasting tools for application in other areas. Readers are assumed to be familiar with standard statistical concepts such as random variables, probability density functions, and expected values, and to possess some minimal modeling experience.
Download or read book Statistical Learning Tools for Electricity Load Forecasting written by Anestis Antoniadis and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Energy Research Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 1198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Cost benefit Analysis of Accuracy in Peak Load Forecasting written by Barbara A. Waldman and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting U S Electricity Demand written by Adela Maria Bolet and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-08-30 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the energy headlines of 1985 proclaim the waning of OPEC, the collapse of oil prices, and the demise of the nuclear power industry, few policy analysts are examining the dynamic challenges and opportunities that may confront the electric power industry during the remainder of this century. In this pioneering work, Adela Maria Bolet attempts to do exactly this, namely, to reconcile the differences among forecasters as to the future of electricity demand in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors.
Download or read book Travel Demand Forecasting Parameters and Techniques written by and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2012 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 716: Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques provides guidelines on travel demand forecasting procedures and their application for helping to solve common transportation problems.
Download or read book From Natural to Artificial Neural Computation written by Jose Mira and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1995-05-24 with total page 1182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the proceedings of the International Workshop on Artificial Neural Networks, IWANN '95, held in Torremolinos near Malaga, Spain in June 1995. The book contains 143 revised papers selected from a wealth of submissions and five invited contributions; it covers all current aspects of neural computation and presents the state of the art of ANN research and applications. The papers are organized in sections on neuroscience, computational models of neurons and neural nets, organization principles, learning, cognitive science and AI, neurosimulators, implementation, neural networks for perception, and neural networks for communication and control.
Download or read book Core Concepts and Methods in Load Forecasting written by Stephen Haben and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-06-01 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive open access book enables readers to discover the essential techniques for load forecasting in electricity networks, particularly for active distribution networks. From statistical methods to deep learning and probabilistic approaches, the book covers a wide range of techniques and includes real-world applications and a worked examples using actual electricity data (including an example implemented through shared code). Advanced topics for further research are also included, as well as a detailed appendix on where to find data and additional reading. As the smart grid and low carbon economy continue to evolve, the proper development of forecasting methods is vital. This book is a must-read for students, industry professionals, and anyone interested in forecasting for smart control applications, demand-side response, energy markets, and renewable utilization.
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices written by Rafal Weron and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-01-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Download or read book Practical Data Mining written by Jr., Monte F. Hancock and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-12-19 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Used by corporations, industry, and government to inform and fuel everything from focused advertising to homeland security, data mining can be a very useful tool across a wide range of applications. Unfortunately, most books on the subject are designed for the computer scientist and statistical illuminati and leave the reader largely adrift in tech
