Download or read book A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central Eastern and Southeastern European Countries written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.
Download or read book Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe written by Mr.Ruben V Atoyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-20 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
Download or read book Montenegro written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-21 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the long-term growth prospects and the output gap in Montenegro. Historical growth in Montenegro was driven mostly by capital with some contribution from labor, while total factor productivity (TFP) contributed negatively. Going forward, in the baseline growth accounting framework with no reforms, employment will likely have a slightly negative contribution because of demographic dynamics unless both labor force participation and unemployment improve significantly. The highway project will contribute to capital accumulation in the near term, but the contribution from capital accumulation will likely fall despite relatively high investment ratios. Based on historical performance, the contribution from TFP is likely limited and constitutes the main bottleneck for long-term growth prospects in the no-reform baseline.
Download or read book Republic of Croatia written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-16 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Croatia continued its third year of positive economic growth in 2017. Growth is expected to stay at similar levels in the near future but to decelerate over the medium term. Consumer prices increased at a moderate pace and wage growth was also moderate as unemployment remained high. The external current account is expected to record another strong surplus, underpinned by robust performance of exports and tourism and lower repatriation of profits as banks absorbed losses from Agrokor. The balance of risks has improved but vulnerabilities remain sizable as public and external debt levels are still high, and the full impact of the Agrokor restructuring is yet unknown.
Download or read book Hungary written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses backgrounds and recent developments in the economy of Hungary. The Hungarian economy has been growing at a robust pace over the past few years helped by supportive macroeconomic policies, a favorable external environment, and high utilization of European Union (EU) funds. Unemployment declined sharply, amid a continuous rise in labor participation. Inflationary pressures have remained subdued. Better-than-budgeted fiscal performance last year helped reduce the public debt ratio. But 2016 is not going to be very encouraging for Hungarian economy. Growth prospects remain subdued reflecting an adverse business climate. The balance of risks is tilted to the downside.
Download or read book Bulgaria written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-10 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bulgarian economy has shown resilience since the last Article IV consultation. Growth over the last 4 quarters exceeded expectations. The authorities took concrete steps to correct the fiscal slippage in 2014 and efforts are underway to strengthen confidence in the health of the financial system. Looking ahead, risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. Downside risks stem mostly from weak external demand, possible regional tension, and reversal in domestic policy reforms.
Download or read book Republic of Slovenia written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-18 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Article IV Consultation highlights that the continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth. Macro-financial legacy issues remain in bank and corporate balance sheets, including small and medium enterprises’ nonperforming loans. Structural challenges persist with low productivity growth, skills shortages, high tax wedge, heavy regulatory system, and extensive presence of state-owned enterprises. Policies should focus on fiscal and structural reforms to rebuild fiscal buffers and increase productivity. Slovenia’s external position in 2018 is assessed as substantially stronger than suggested by fundamentals and desirable policies; however the current account is expected to revert toward its norm in the medium term. Continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth.
Download or read book Republic of Lithuania written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-29 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Lithuania picked up steam in 2017, following two years of sluggish growth. Real GDP expanded by 3.9 percent largely because of the acceleration of investment, which benefited from credit growth and high capacity utilization. Private consumption remained the main engine of growth, though it was held back by decelerating real wages. The external current account swung to a modest surplus with exports benefiting from past investments in export capacity and improved external demand. Growth in 2018 is projected at 3.2 percent, mainly because of weaker exports after a very strong performance in 2017 and a slowdown of consumption driven by negative employment growth.
Download or read book Economics of European Crises and Emerging Markets written by Peter Havlik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-07 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores a wide range of case studies, analyses, histories, and polemics on the fate of post-socialist Europe- and why that matters to readers today. Nearly 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the post-socialist economies of the former East remain adrift, buffeted by the international financial crisis, the Ukraine crisis, and the ongoing instability in the European Union. This new book brings together a diverse range of scholars in offering a comprehensive look at the struggles faced by policymakers, economists and business people across the former East, and the ways that they responded to crisis. This volume also will be of great value to policymakers, academics, historians, and economists seeking to understand possible influence of China's One Belt One Road policy on Eastern Europe and Russia.
Download or read book Republic of Poland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-14 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights the fact that to address the challenge of declining working age population, policies should not only aim to support fertility, but also to increase labor force participation rate, to improve labor allocation across sectors and to encourage net immigration. However, with some recent measures going in the opposite direction, even such mitigating policies may not fully offset the demographic headwinds. Poland faces profound demographic changes. The decline of fertility rate and growing life expectancy, mostly driven by longevity of older cohorts, will significantly change the demographic landscape. Demographics may soon pose a barrier for growth. The historical expansion of working age population appears to have been only partly utilized to boost potential growth, with increased unemployment and declined labor force participation rates dampening potential gains. Net migration was also a drag on the labor supply in the past, but this has changed recently. In addition to a steady outflow of permanent migrants, there was a sharp pickup in temporary migration after EU accession.
Download or read book Vietnam written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-10 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper seeks to assess how this transformation has affected its growth potential. Employing a range of methodologies, the analysis concludes that Vietnam’s medium-term growth potential has increased from 6.2 percent estimated in 2014 to 6.5 percent. Acceleration of reforms that have generated productivity gains in the last decade, including the implementation of agreed free trade agreements, could further boost growth potential. The four methodologies provide a range of estimates for Vietnam’s potential output. On balance, we assess the potential growth estimate in Vietnam to be at 6.5 percent in 2017, higher than previous staff estimates of 6.2. The output gap is estimated at 0.4 percent in 2017. This analysis will be extended further in a forthcoming paper. The production function estimates can be further improved by explicitly incorporating the effect of structural transformation due to labor reallocation into the model, and by better accounting for the impact of the quality of human capital accumulation by taking the quality of education into account. Improvements in data quality, for example, on real estate prices, quarterly gross domestic product, unemployment rate and labor force in the informal sector, and capacity utilization, could further enhance the analysis.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin Summer 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-08-11 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.
Download or read book Slovak Republic written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-26 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper assesses Slovakia’s household and private sector indebtedness against macroeconomic fundamentals, identifies key vulnerabilities from rapid household credit growth, assesses policy responses to date, and presents further policy options. Strong private sector credit growth has persisted for over a decade and resulted in household debt that is high relative to peers. Credit is now growing in riskier segments. Housing prices have also started to reflect pressures from strong credit growth. The paper describes assessments of household and private sector debt levels relative to fundamentals. It also describes the policy response to date and assesses its effectiveness. Econometric analysis suggests that household indebtedness is growing at a faster pace than implied by economic fundamentals. The credit cycle seems to have reached its post-crisis high. The credit cyclogram, compiled by the National Bank of Slovakia, is an aggregation of a set of core and supplementary variables evaluated against distributions of their own historical values to disentangle factors cyclical credit growth.
Download or read book Czech Republic written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-07 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a technical report on the work of the Banking Supervision Department of the Bank of Israel. Banking supervision in Israel follows a very rigorous and comprehensive approach. Supervisory practice at the Banking Supervision Department matches and at times exceeds in many respects the standard practices in other developed economies, both in the scope of regulation and the intensity and depth of risk assessments. This explains the Bank of Israel’s success in maintaining financial stability during the global financial crisis and has substantially benefited Israel’s economy and its society as a whole.
Download or read book Republic of Latvia written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-07 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses potential growth and its drivers for Latvia 6 years after the growth turnaround and presents projections for the medium term. As the labor force is projected to decline, implementation of policies to increase investment and support total factor productivity (TFP) growth will be essential to ensure income convergence going forward. The level of potential growth has direct consequences for Latvia’s convergence path. Latvia’s GDP per capita was about 62 percent of the EU-15 average in 2015. A better understanding of potential output is important for policy setting. For example, an estimate of the output gap enters the fiscal reaction function through the cyclical adjustment of the fiscal balance and therefore directly influences policy makers’ assessments of whether fiscal policy should respond to deviations from potential. Potential output is an elusive concept and can be defined in various ways. Potential output is generally defined according to the Okun concept as the level of output consistent with stable inflation, while short-run deviations of actual from potential output, due to the slow adjustment of wages and prices to shocks, reflect the output gap—or economic slack.
Download or read book Regional Economic Issues Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-02 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the robust growth that continues in most Central and Southeastern European economies as well as in Turkey. Accommodative macroeconomic policies, improving financial intermediation, and rising real wages have been behind the region’s mostly consumption-driven rebound, while private investment remained subdued. In the near-term, strong domestic demand is expected to continue supporting growth amid continued low or negative inflation. The Russian economy went through a sharp contraction last year amid plunging oil prices and sanctions. Other CIS countries were hurt by domestic political and financial woes, as well as by weak demand from Russia. In 2016, output contraction is projected to moderate to around 11⁄2 percent from 41⁄4 percent in 2015 as the shocks that hit the CIS economies gradually reverberate less and activity stabilizes. In the baseline, a combination of supportive monetary policy and medium-term fiscal consolidation remains valid for many economies in the region.
Download or read book Explaining the Shadow Economy in Europe Size Causes and Policy Options written by Mr.Ben Kelmanson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-13 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the drivers, and reestimates the size of shadow economies in Europe, with a focus on the emerging economies, and recommends policies to increase formality. The size of shadow economies declined across Europe in recent years but remains significant, especially in Eastern Europe. In the emerging European economies, the key determinants of shadow economy size are regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and human capital. The paper argues that a comprehensive package of reforms, focused on country-specific drivers, is needed to successfully combat the shadow economy. The menu of policies most relevant for Europe’s emerging economies include: reducing regulatory and administrative burdens, promoting transparency and improving government effectiveness, as well as improving tax compliance, automating procedures, and promoting electronic payments.
