Download or read book Spillover Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic written by David Quammen and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2012-10 with total page 591 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A masterpiece of science reporting that tracks the animal origins of emerginghuman diseases.
Download or read book 2012 Spillover Report Background Papers written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-07 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note conducts a business cycle accounting analysis for systemic economies, with an emphasis on spillover effects from macroeconomic versus financial shocks. The systemic economies under consideration are China, the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This analysis is based on historical decompositions of output growth derived from the estimated structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies, documented in Vitek (2012). Within this framework, each economy is represented by interconnected real, external, monetary, fiscal, and financial sectors. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages
Download or read book 2012 Spillover Report written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-09-07 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spillover reports examine the external effects of domestic policies in five systemic economies (S5), comprising China, the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The report aims to provide an added perspective to the policy line developed in the Article IV discussions with these entities and an input into the Fund’s broader multilateral surveillance. Topics for this report were chosen based on consultations with officials from the S5 and selected emerging markets (Brazil, the Czech Republic, India, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, and Turkey). Each participant was asked about policy concerns and spillovers from the S5. To facilitate candor, the report does not attribute views regarding partner countries. Rather than try to capture the full range of spillovers, this report builds on last year’s findings, focusing on the forward-looking issues raised by partners and on S5 officials’ reactions.
Download or read book 2012 Spillover Report written by Internationaler Währungsfonds and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spillover reports examine the external effects of domestic policies in five systemic economies (S5), comprising China, the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The report aims to provide an added perspective to the policy line developed in the Article IV discussions with these entities and an input into the Fund's broader multilateral surveillance. Topics for this report were chosen based on consultations with officials from the S5 and selected emerging markets (Brazil, the Czech Republic, India, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, and Turkey). Each participant was asked about policy concerns and spillovers from the S5. To facilitate candor, the report does not attribute views regarding partner countries. Rather than try to capture the full range of spillovers, this report builds on last year's findings, focusing on the forward-looking issues raised by partners and on S5 officials' reactions.
Download or read book 2013 Spillover Report Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-03 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High uncertainty in general, and high policy uncertainty more specifically, can have important impact on global investment and output growth. Much of the recent policy uncertainty emanated from the United States and Europe—the world’s two largest economies. Spillovers from policy uncertainty can occur through several channels. Trade can be affected if increased policy uncertainty adversely affects economic activity and import demand in the United States and Europe. Policy uncertainty could also raise global risk aversion, resulting in sharp corrections in financial markets and capital outflows from emerging markets. This background note attempts to quantify the impact of U.S. and European policy uncertainty on other regions. Specifically, it addresses the following questions: What do we mean by policy uncertainty? How well can we measure it? How has policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe evolved during the past several decades? And how large are the spillovers to economic activity in other regions? The analysis suggests that sharp increases in U.S. and European policy uncertainty in the past have temporarily lowered investment and output in other regions to varying degrees. It also suggests that a marked decrease in policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe in the near term could help boost global investment and output.
Download or read book 2013 Spillover Report written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-02 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Five years after the global financial crisis, the severe tensions and risks rooted last year in some of the “Systemic five” (S5)—China, euro area, Japan, United Kingdom, United States––have abated but all five are still operating below potential, i.e., they are not contributing to global activity as much as they might: if they could somehow close their output gaps, global output would be closer to potential by 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, many parts of the rest of the world have been at or near potential. Most recently though, there have been signs of accelerated recovery in the United States and slowdown in emerging markets. This continued divergence in cyclical positions poses a global challenge, namely to find policies that help the S5 close their output gap without over-stimulating or over-tightening, through spillovers, economies that do not need it.
Download or read book 2014 Spillover Report written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-25 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global spillovers have entered a new phase. With crisis-related spillovers and risks fading, changing growth patterns are the main source of spillovers in the global economy at this juncture. Two key trends are highly relevant here. First, signs of self-sustaining recovery in some advanced economies indicate that the unwinding of exceptional monetary accommodation will proceed and lead to a tightening of global financial conditions in the coming years. An uneven recovery, though, suggests normalization will proceed at different times in different countries, with possible spillover implications. Second, growth in emerging markets is slowing on a broad basis since its precrisis peak and can carry noticeable spillover effects at the global level. Model code and programs used for the spillover simulations can be made available. Data used for the empirical analysis can be made available unless restricted by copyright or confidentiality issues.
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-18 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
Download or read book License to Spill How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports written by Jelle Barkema and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-07 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports.
Download or read book How to Capture Macro Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests written by Mr.Heiko Hesse and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the challenges of financial stability analysis and bank stress testing is how to establish scenarios with meaningful macro-financial linkages, i.e., taking into account spillover effects and other forms of contagion. We come up with an approach to simulate the potential impact of spillover effects based on the “traditional” design of macro-economic stress tests. Specifically, we examine spillover effects observed during the financial crisis and simulate their impact on banks’ liquidity and capital positions. The outcome suggests that spillover effects have a highly non-linear impact on bank soundness, both in terms of liquidity and solvency.
Download or read book 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review External Study Integrating Bilateral and Multilateral Surveillance on a Continuing Basis written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-30 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Download or read book Spillovers from the Maturing of China s Economy written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.
Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2012 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-04 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF's 2012 Annual Report chronicles the response of the Fund's Executive Board and staff to the global financial crisis and other events during financial year 2012, which covers the period from May 1, 2011, through April 30, 2012. The print version of the Report is available in eight languages (Arabic, Chinese, English, French, German, Japanese, Russian, and Spanish), along with a CD-ROM (available in English only) that includes the Report text and ancillary materials, including the Fund's Financial Statements for FY2012.
Download or read book One Year After the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review Progress Report written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-05-11 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This progress report provides a short update on the first year of implementation of the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) in line with the Managing Director’s Statement on Strengthening Surveillance of October 2011. The report does not provide a comprehensive review of surveillance—which will be done in the 2014 TSR. Instead, its purpose is to establish, at an early stage, whether the new operational priorities are being implemented, set out key areas of progress, and discuss the challenges raised in their implementation. The report also identifies areas where further efforts may need to be directed—particularly following the change to the legal framework—to ensure even implementation and delivery of effective surveillance. The report recognizes that, while some measures have been implemented over the past year, others will take more time to come to fruition.
Download or read book Spillovers from China s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN 5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-09 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Download or read book Malaysia written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-15 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Technical Note focuses on banking system spillovers of Malaysia. The note examines the presence of foreign banks and the potential for problems in other jurisdictions to spillover to Malaysia and the overseas operations of Malaysian banks, which make their performance and solvency more exposed to economic and political developments abroad. A key facet of the current crisis is serious problems in advanced economy banks, suggesting a role for spillovers from their claims on Malaysia. Notwithstanding the Asian Financial Crisis, foreign claims of BIS-reporting banks on Malaysia have generally been on an increasing trend since the early 1990s.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Model Spillovers and Their Discontents written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-08 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Great Recession underlined that policies in some countries can have profound spillovers elsewhere. Sadly, the solution of simulating large macroeconomic models to measure these spillovers has been found wanting. Typical models generate lower international correlations of output and financial asset prices than are seen in even pre-crisis data. Imposing higher financial market correlations creates more reasonable cross-country spillovers, and is likely to become the norm in policy modeling despite weak theoretical underpinnings, as is already true of sticky wages. We propose using event studies to calibrate market reactions to particular policy announcements, and report results for U.S. monetary and fiscal policy announcements in 2009 and 2010 that are plausible and event-specific.
