Download or read book Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty written by Efrem Castelnuovo and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do short and long term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962-2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found to predict movements in interest rates at different maturities. In particular, an increase in financial uncertainty is found to trigger a negative and significant response of both short and long term interest rates. The response of the short end of the yield curve (i.e., of short term interest rates) is found to be stronger than that of the long end (i.e., of long term ones). In other words, a financial uncertainty shock causes a temporary steepening of the yield curve. This result is consistent, among other interpretations, with medium-term expectations of a recovery in real activity after a financial uncertainty shock.
Download or read book The Era of Uncertainty written by Francois Trahan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-13 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”
Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Download or read book Modelling and forecasing the yield curve under model uncertainty written by Paola Donati and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia written by Felix Geiger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-17 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.
Download or read book Money Information and Uncertainty written by Charles Albert Eric Goodhart and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertain Futures written by Jens Beckert and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-07-12 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
Download or read book Endogenous Yield Curve Risk from Central Bank Policy Uncertainty written by Vineer Bhansali and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Due to economic feedback the actual risk in bonds from changes in Federal Reserve policy should generally be smaller than measured using conventional duration measures. We introduce the notion of Federal Reserve policy durations. For example, target inflation duration, which measures the change in the price of a treasury bond that arises from a change in Central Bank target inflation rate that occurs at some time in the future before the maturity of the bond. For Central Banks following a policy setting rule such as a Taylor rule, we derive a simple analytic expression for the target inflation duration of zero coupon Treasury bonds in terms of model economic parameters and the parameters in the Taylor rule. The correction to the traditional duration of a zero coupon bond is proportional, at leading order, to the product of three terms: the Taylor rule output gap coefficient, the coefficient in the economy that determines the response of the output gap to the real rate, and the square of the maturity of the zero coupon bond.
Download or read book Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve Under Model Uncertainty written by Paola Donati and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting US Recessions written by Valerio Ercolani and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.
Download or read book Expectations Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by J. C. Dodds and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forces that Shape the Yield Curve written by Mark Fisher and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yield curve is shaped by (1) expectations of the future path of short-term interest rates and (2) uncertainty about the path. Uncertainty affects the yield curve through two channels: (1) investors' attitudes toward risk as reflected in risk premia, and (2) the nonlinear relation between yields and bond prices (known as convexity). The way in which these forces simultaneously work to shape the yield curve can be understood in terms of the conditions that guarantee the absence of arbitrage opportunities.The purpose of this paper is to provide an introduction to the modern theory of the term structure of interest rates using high-school algebra. In order to present the theory correctly, one must take uncertainty seriously. Nevertheless, the source of uncertainty can be modeled quite simply: All uncertainty is resolved by a single flip of a coin. In this setting, the author can rigorously present all three forces that shape the yield curve: expectations, risk aversion, and convexity. The analysis is organized around the conditions that guarantee the absence of arbitrage opportunities.
Download or read book The Trades of March 2020 written by Alex Gurevich and published by . This book was released on 2022-01-18 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Have you ever wondered what happens in the command control of a global macro hedge fund when US stock markets plunge 35 percent in just three weeks? Welcome to the mind of Alex Gurevich, Founder and CIO of HonTe Investments. As tragic events unfolded around the world, the pandemic ruptured the sequence of price action and devoured financial markets like a black hole. Through Gurevich's personal narrative and the team's actual Slack messages, The Trades of March 2020 follows their frenetic efforts to survive the crisis. From the first terrifying days of loss, both personal and professional, to the team's redoubled attempts to identify emerging opportunities, this account of crucial, in-the-moment decisions is a faithful record of the trading moves made in the unprecedented month of March 2020. Discover the thinking and investment philosophy that led HonTe to survive and ultimately thrive during one of the most extraordinary challenges of our time.
Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Download or read book Interest Rate Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations written by Drew D. Creal and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty associated with the monetary policy transmission mechanism is a key driving force of business cycles. To investigate this link, we propose a new term structure model that allows the volatility of the yield curve to interact with macroeconomic indicators. The data favors a model with two volatility factors that capture short-term and long-term interest rate uncertainty. Increases in either of them lead higher unemployment rates, but they interact with inflation in opposite directions.
Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting the Yield Curve written by Nicola Anderson and published by . This book was released on 1996-06-04 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A yield curve is a graph indicating the term structure of interest rates by plotting the yields of all bonds of the same quality. This book provides a thorough analysis of estimation techniques and a survey of yield curve interpretation. On the former it is the most advanced book in its field, on the latter it provides an introduction to more specialised texts. It also provides important insight into the latest thinking on these techniques at the Bank of England.
