Download or read book Wind Probabilities and Tropical Cyclone Readiness Conditions written by Jerry Dean Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wind probabilities are examined in relation to the establishment of tropical cyclone readiness conditions at Apra Harbor, Guam, and at Kadena AFB, Okinawa, Japan. By fitting a conceptual model to the data, decision zones are delineated for setting each condition. While these results apply strictly to the two stations alone, the concepts are general and can be made to apply to other bases and other problems. (Author).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Readiness Conditions Setting Aids written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A procedure to set tropical cyclone readiness conditions with a high degree of reliability is described. Where possible, threshold values for 90% and/or 95% confidence are given for 50 kt tropical cyclone and typhoon (hurricane) readiness conditions. The method used a large of computer-simulated forecasts for actual typhoons (hurricanes) that passed near Yokosuka, Buckner Bay, Apra Harbor, Cubi Point, or Pearl Harbor. Wind probabilities were computed from these forecasts assuming present-day forecast error characteristics, and were compared to estimates of actural winds. These data were used to establish tropical cyclone condition thresholds at desired levels of confidence as related to wind probability. Keywords: Weather forecasting; Tropical cyclone strike probability; Guam; Japan; CHARM(Cyclone-Hurricane Acceptable Risk Model); Threat probability.
Download or read book A Probabilistic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness TCCOR written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR) are set at DoD installations in the Western Pacific to convey the risk associated with the onset of destructive winds from approaching tropical cyclones. In this thesis, the methods by which TCCOR are set were analyzed to determine if objective and/or probabilistic guidance could improve the process. The Tropical Prediction Utility (TPU) was developed by forecasters at Yokosuka, JA and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as a means of standardizing TCCOR forecasts using elements from JTWC official warnings. The TPU was used to recreate TCCOR timelines for 42 different cases affecting military bases at Guam, Kadena, JA, Sasebo, JA, and Yokosuka, JA during the 2002 2007 typhoon seasons. These timelines were then compared to historical TCCOR timelines and wind observations to identify any trends and biases in set time and duration for each TCCOR. A wind speed probability model was also used to compare the timelines to the wind observations and to categorize them based on consistent trends in probability at each predicted and historical TCCOR. The results suggest that potential biases exist in the Tropical Prediction Utility that tend to predict TCCOR earlier than they were set in practice. Although clear trends were identified between wind speed probabilities and elevated TCCOR, statistical uncertainties exist when using the probabilities to discern between hits and false alarms. While this thesis identified basic traits in TCCOR settings, a larger sample of cases is needed for further study to determine factors that discriminate between hits and false alarms.
Download or read book Setting Hurricane Conditions of Readiness with High Confidence written by Geoff Kostyshack and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A procedure for setting hurricane readiness conditions with a high degree of reliability is described. The methodology utilizes a large number of computer-simulated forecasts for actual hurricanes since 1899 that passed near Key West, FL or Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Wind probabilities were computed from these forecasts assuming present-day official forecast error characteristics, and then compared to hindsight estimates of actual winds. These data were used to establish hurricane condition thresholds at desired levels of confidence as related to wind probability. Threshold values for 95% confidence are given for hurricane readiness conditions at Key West and Guantanamo Bay.
Download or read book Probability of Hurricane tropical Storm Conditions written by T. Michael Carter and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 984 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 an 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which is supported by correlation coefficients. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book Probability of Hurricane tropical Storm Conditions written by T. Michael Carter and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Verification of the National Hurricane Center s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product written by Jaclyn Ashley Shafer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-10-12 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.
Download or read book Technical Abstract Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Terrain Adjusted Tropical Cyclone Wind Probabilities written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A problem involving overestimates of tropical cyclone wind probabilities for locations that are heavily terrain-influenced is described. Previous studies on this topic are reviewed. A method is described to adjust wind probabilities for terrain, and it is applied for the two Navy ports of Cubi Point, RP, and Yokosuka, JA. Probabilities with and without terrain modifications are tested, and the results are analyzed and compared. The study concludes that the resulting lower wind probabilities are a substantial improvement over the unmodified probabilities. (Author).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Eastern North Pacific EPWINDP written by Jerry Dean Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 to 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast and probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 to 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book Guidelines for Converting Between Various Wind Averaging Periods in Tropical Cyclone Conditions written by B. A. Harper and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Statistical Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product written by Denis Nikolayevich Botambekov and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Sea state Probability Model Development and Application written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conditions of sea state around severe storms, especially tropical cyclones, are of major concern to ships. An encounter with a tropical cyclone has the potential for causing structural damage and perhaps even personnel casualties, thus accurate assessment of significant and possibly hazardous sea-state events is highly important. Two models that predict sea state based on operationally available input are examined and compared in this report. While it is concluded that both models provide reasonable forecasts of sea height, a preference for one model over the other is shown. This preferred model is coupled with elements of tropical cyclone wind and strike probability models to create sea state probabilities. These sea state probabilities, when tested on independent data, are found to be in good agreement with observational data. The preferred model developed in the first section of the report then is applied in subsequent sections to form a tropical cyclone threat anlaysis and display aid called TCASS (Tropical Cyclone Applications Software System). The TCASS is designed primarily for shipboard applications and may be used by environmentalists as a briefing aid, for analysis of tropical cyclone threat, and as a tool for formulating a recommended course of action.
Download or read book Third Conference on Meteorology of the Coastal Zone January 9 13 1984 Miami Fla written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
