Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Download or read book Trust Us We re Experts written by Sheldon Rampton and published by Tarcher. This book was released on 2001 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In Trust Us, We're Experts! journalists Sheldon Rampton and John Stauber unmask the sneaky and widespread methods industry uses to influence opinion through bogus reports, doctored data, and manufactured facts. Rampton and Stauber show how corporations and public relations firms have seized upon remarkable new ways of exploiting your trust to get you to buy what they have to sell: letting you hear their pitch from a neutral third party, such as a professor or a pediatrician or a soccer mom or a watchdog group." "The problem is, these third parties are usually anything but neutral. They have been handpicked, cultivated, and meticulously packaged in order to make you believe what they say. In many cases, they have been paid handsomely for their "opinions.""--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Download or read book The Death of Expertise written by Tom Nichols and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In the early 1990s, a small group of "AIDS denialists," including a University of California professor named Peter Duesberg, argued against virtually the entire medical establishment's consensus that the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was the cause of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. Science thrives on such counterintuitive challenges, but there was no evidence for Duesberg's beliefs, which turned out to be baseless. Once researchers found HIV, doctors and public health officials were able to save countless lives through measures aimed at preventing its transmission"--

Download or read book When Can You Trust the Experts written by Daniel T. Willingham and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-06-20 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Clear, easy principles to spot what's nonsense and what's reliable Each year, teachers, administrators, and parents face a barrage of new education software, games, workbooks, and professional development programs purporting to be "based on the latest research." While some of these products are rooted in solid science, the research behind many others is grossly exaggerated. This new book, written by a top thought leader, helps everyday teachers, administrators, and family members—who don't have years of statistics courses under their belts—separate the wheat from the chaff and determine which new educational approaches are scientifically supported and worth adopting. Author's first book, Why Don't Students Like School?, catapulted him to superstar status in the field of education Willingham's work has been hailed as "brilliant analysis" by The Wall Street Journal and "a triumph" by The Washington Post Author blogs for The Washington Post and Brittanica.com, and writes a column for American Educator In this insightful book, thought leader and bestselling author Dan Willingham offers an easy, reliable way to discern which programs are scientifically supported and which are the equivalent of "educational snake oil."

Download or read book Are We All Scientific Experts Now written by Harry Collins and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-03-28 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To ordinary people, science used to seem infallible. Scientists were heroes, selflessly pursuing knowledge for the common good. More recently, a series of scientific scandals, frauds and failures have led us to question science’s pre-eminence. Revelations such as Climategate, or debates about the safety of the MMR vaccine, have dented our confidence in science. In this provocative new book Harry Collins seeks to redeem scientific expertise, and reasserts science’s special status. Despite the messy realities of day-to-day scientific endeavor, he emphasizes the superior moral qualities of science, dismissing the dubious “default” expertise displayed by many of those outside the scientific community. Science, he argues, should serve as an example to ordinary citizens of how to think and act, and not the other way round.

Download or read book Smart Health Choices written by Les Irwig and published by Judy Irwig. This book was released on 2008 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every day we make decisions about our health - some big and some small. What we eat, how we live and even where we live can affect our health. But how can we be sure that the advice we are given about these important matters is right for us? This book will provide you with the right tools for assessing health advice.

Download or read book Imagining the Internet written by Janna Quitney Anderson and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2005-07-21 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the early 1990s, people predicted the death of privacy, an end to the current concept of 'property,' a paperless society, 500 channels of high-definition interactive television, world peace, and the extinction of the human race after a takeover engineered by intelligent machines. Imagining the Internet zeroes in on predictions about the Internet's future and revisits past predictions—and how they turned out. It gives the history of communications in a nutshell, illustrating the serious impact of pervasive networks and how they will change our lives over the next century.

Download or read book Wedding Bible written by Sarah Haywood and published by The Wedding Bible Company Ltd. This book was released on 2006 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Celebrity wedding planner and British TV `Wedding Doctor' Sarah Haywood's ultimate guide to planning the perfect day with style, Sophistication, and panache.

Download or read book Rage written by Bob Woodward and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2020-09-15 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rage is an unprecedented and intimate tour de force of new reporting on the Trump presidency facing a global pandemic, economic disaster and racial unrest. Woodward, the #1 international bestselling author of Fear: Trump in the White House, has uncovered the precise moment the president was warned that the Covid-19 epidemic would be the biggest national security threat to his presidency. In dramatic detail, Woodward takes readers into the Oval Office as Trump’s head pops up when he is told in January 2020 that the pandemic could reach the scale of the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 675,000 Americans. In 17 on-the-record interviews with Woodward over seven volatile months—an utterly vivid window into Trump’s mind—the president provides a self-portrait that is part denial and part combative interchange mixed with surprising moments of doubt as he glimpses the perils in the presidency and what he calls the “dynamite behind every door.” At key decision points, Rage shows how Trump’s responses to the crises of 2020 were rooted in the instincts, habits and style he developed during his first three years as president. Revisiting the earliest days of the Trump presidency, Rage reveals how Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats struggled to keep the country safe as the president dismantled any semblance of collegial national security decision making. Rage draws from hundreds of hours of interviews with firsthand witnesses as well as participants’ notes, emails, diaries, calendars and confidential documents. Woodward obtained 25 never-seen personal letters exchanged between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who describes the bond between the two leaders as out of a “fantasy film.” Trump insists to Woodward he will triumph over Covid-19 and the economic calamity. “Don’t worry about it, Bob. Okay?” Trump told the author in July. “Don’t worry about it. We’ll get to do another book. You’ll find I was right.”

Download or read book The Price of Panic written by Jay W. Richards and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: WHAT JUST HAPPENED? The human cost of the emergency response to COVID-19 has far outweighed the benefits. That’s the sobering verdict of a trio of scholars—a biologist, a statistician, and a philosopher— in this comprehensive assessment of the worst panic-induced disaster in history. As the media fanned the flames of panic, government officials and a new elite of scientific experts ignored the established protocols for mitigating a dangerous disease. Instead, they shut down the world economy, closed every school, confined citizens to their homes, and threatened to enforce a regime of extreme social distancing indefinitely. And the American public—amazingly enough—complied without protest. Modestly but relentlessly focused on what we know and don’t know about the coronavirus, Douglas Axe, William M. Briggs, and Jay W. Richards demonstrate in this eye-opening study what real experts can contribute when a pandemic strikes. In the early spring of 2020, the panic of government officials, the hysteria of the media, and the hubris of suddenly powerful scientists produced a worldwide calamity. The Price of Panic is the essential book for understanding what happened and how to avoid repeating our deadly mistakes.

Download or read book Records Briefs written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 1168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Supreme Court written by and published by . This book was released on 1905 with total page 752 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Ina May s Guide to Childbirth written by Ina May Gaskin and published by Bantam. This book was released on 2008-11-19 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What you need to know to have the best birth experience for you. Drawing upon her thirty-plus years of experience, Ina May Gaskin, the nation’s leading midwife, shares the benefits and joys of natural childbirth by showing women how to trust in the ancient wisdom of their bodies for a healthy and fulfilling birthing experience. Based on the female-centered Midwifery Model of Care, Ina May’s Guide to Natural Childbirth gives expectant mothers comprehensive information on everything from the all-important mind-body connection to how to give birth without technological intervention. Filled with inspiring birth stories and practical advice, this invaluable resource includes:• Reducing the pain of labor without drugs--and the miraculous roles touch and massage play • What really happens during labor • Orgasmic birth--making birth pleasurable • Episiotomy--is it really necessary? • Common methods of inducing labor--and which to avoid at all costs • Tips for maximizing your chances of an unmedicated labor and birth • How to avoid postpartum bleeding--and depression • The risks of anesthesia and cesareans--what your doctor doesn’t necessarily tell you • The best ways to work with doctors and/or birth care providers • How to create a safe, comfortable environment for birth in any setting, including a hospital • And much more Ina May’s Guide to Natural Childbirth takes the fear out of childbirth by restoring women’s faith in their own natural power to give birth with more ease, less pain, and less medical intervention.

Download or read book National Security League written by United States. Congress. House. Special committee to investigate the National Security League. [from old catalog] and published by . This book was released on 1919 with total page 940 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book How People Learn written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-08-11 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First released in the Spring of 1999, How People Learn has been expanded to show how the theories and insights from the original book can translate into actions and practice, now making a real connection between classroom activities and learning behavior. This edition includes far-reaching suggestions for research that could increase the impact that classroom teaching has on actual learning. Like the original edition, this book offers exciting new research about the mind and the brain that provides answers to a number of compelling questions. When do infants begin to learn? How do experts learn and how is this different from non-experts? What can teachers and schools do-with curricula, classroom settings, and teaching methodsâ€"to help children learn most effectively? New evidence from many branches of science has significantly added to our understanding of what it means to know, from the neural processes that occur during learning to the influence of culture on what people see and absorb. How People Learn examines these findings and their implications for what we teach, how we teach it, and how we assess what our children learn. The book uses exemplary teaching to illustrate how approaches based on what we now know result in in-depth learning. This new knowledge calls into question concepts and practices firmly entrenched in our current education system. Topics include: How learning actually changes the physical structure of the brain. How existing knowledge affects what people notice and how they learn. What the thought processes of experts tell us about how to teach. The amazing learning potential of infants. The relationship of classroom learning and everyday settings of community and workplace. Learning needs and opportunities for teachers. A realistic look at the role of technology in education.

Download or read book Popular Science written by and published by . This book was released on 1983-12 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Popular Science gives our readers the information and tools to improve their technology and their world. The core belief that Popular Science and our readers share: The future is going to be better, and science and technology are the driving forces that will help make it better.

Download or read book Advanced Google AdWords written by Brad Geddes and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-30 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master every aspect of the powerful Google AdWords platform with this one-of-a-kind guide AdWords expert Brad Geddes, the first and only Advanced AdWords Seminar leader for Google, shares his detailed instruction and insights to get new users up and running quickly and teach AdWords pros some slick new tricks. This must-have new edition offers 50+ pages of fresh material on such topics as retargeting, tracking for analytics, video ad features, ad extensions, and much more. The ultimate guide to advanced Google AdWords techniques authored by a respected AdWords expert who is the Advanced AdWords Seminar leader for Google and a well-known internet marketing consultant Offers insight, direction, and strategies for using every aspect of AdWords to create and manage successful pay-per-click marketing campaigns Goes well beyond the basics and offers tips and tactics that you can apply immediately to your own campaigns Updated and better-than-ever Second Edition features 50+ pages of new material, including targeting capabilities and remarketing, ad extensions, bidding features, tracking for analytics, video ad features, reporting features, and more Provides busy marketers, consultants, PR professionals, web developers, and others with an invaluable, step-by-step guide to keep on hand Includes a Google Adwords coupon If you want to drive the traffic you choose to your website, then this is the guide to get you there.