Download or read book What Caused the Decline in U S Business Cycle Volatility written by Robert James Gordon and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasizes the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in real GDP, of the output gap, and of the inflation rate. The primary results of the paper are based on a small three-equation macro model that includes equations for the inflation rate, the nominal Federal Funds rate, and the change in the output gap. The development and analysis of the model goes beyond the previous literature in two directions. First, instead of quantifying the role of shocks-in-general, it decomposes the effect of shocks between a specific set of supply shock variables in the model's inflation equation, and the error term in the output gap equation that is interpreted as representing "IS" shifts or "demand shocks". It concludes that the reduced variance of shocks was the dominant source of reduced business-cycle volatility. Supply shocks accounted for 80 percent of the volatility of inflation before 1984 and demand shocks the remainder. The high level of output volatility before 1984 is accounted for roughly two-thirds by the output errors (demand shocks) and the remainder by supply shocks. The output errors are tied to the paper's initial decomposition of the demand side of the economy, which concludes that three sectors - residential and inventory investment and Federal government spending, account for 50 percent in the reduction in the average standard deviation of real GDP when the 1950-83 and 1984-2004 intervals are compared. The second innovation in this paper is to reinterpret the role of changes in Fed monetary policy. Previous research on Taylor rule reaction functions identifies a shift after 1979 in the Volcker era toward inflation fighting with no concern about output, and then a shift in the Greenspan era to a combination of inflation fighting along with strong countercyclical responses t.

Download or read book What Caused the Decline in US Business Cycle Volatility written by Robert J. Gordon and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book What Caused the Decline in U S Business Volatility written by Robert James Gordon (Wirtschaftswissenschaftler.) and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasizes the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in real GDP, of the output gap, and of the inflation rate. The primary results of the paper are based on a small three-equation macro model that includes equations for the inflation rate, the nominal Federal Funds rate, and the change in the output gap. The development and analysis of the model goes beyond the previous literature in two directions. First, instead of quantifying the role of shocks-in-general, it decomposes the effect of shocks between a specific set of supply shock variables in the model's inflation equation, and the error term in the output gap equation that is interpreted as representing "IS" shifts or "demand shocks". It concludes that the reduced variance of shocks was the dominant source of reduced business-cycle volatility. Supply shocks accounted for 80 percent of the volatility of inflation before 1984 and demand shocks the remainder. The high level of output volatility before 1984 is accounted for roughly two-thirds by the output errors (demand shocks) and the remainder by supply shocks. The output errors are tied to the paper's initial decomposition of the demand side of the economy, which concludes that three sectors - residential and inventory investment and Federal government spending, account for 50 percent in the reduction in the average standard deviation of real GDP when the 1950-83 and 1984-2004 intervals are compared. The second innovation in this paper is to reinterpret the role of changes in Fed monetary policy. Previous research on Taylor rule reaction functions identifies a shift after 1979 in the Volcker era toward inflation fighting with no concern about output, and then a shift in the Greenspan era to a combination of inflation fighting along with strong countercyclical responses t.

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

Download or read book Beating the Business Cycle written by Lakshman Achuthan and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2004-05-18 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

Download or read book Understanding American Economic Decline written by Michael Alan Bernstein and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1994-07-29 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essays by leading scholars present a novel and systematic analysis of the economic difficulties confronting the United States.

Download or read book The Past and Future of America s Economy written by Robert D. Atkinson and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Anyone interested in American history as well as the future contours of our economy will find Dr. Atkinson's analyses a guide to the past and a provocative challenge for the future. Economists, business leaders, scholars, and economic policymakers will find it a necessary addition to the literature on economic cycles and growth economics."--BOOK JACKET.

Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.

Download or read book The Economics of World War I written by Stephen Broadberry and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.

Download or read book The Causes of American Business Cycles written by Peter Temin and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper surveys the causes of American business cycles for the century 1890 - 1990. Causes are taken to be exogenous shocks to a model with largely endogenous policy makers. Causes are classified as either real or monetary and domestic or foreign. All four causes were found to have led to cycles in the past century. This diversity was found in all time periods and for all size cycles. There were more domestic than foreign causes, confirming the relative independence of the American economy from external conditions. There were more real than monetary causes, conflicting with the popular view that monetary shocks are the source of most cycles.

Download or read book Labor Markets and Business Cycles written by Robert Shimer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.

Download or read book Demystifying Global Macroeconomics written by John E. Marthinsen and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2020-02-10 with total page 873 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demystifying Global Macroeconomics (DGM) provides readers with a practical, working use of international macroeconomics. For serious business and political leaders, understanding the global interconnections in economic and financial markets is crucial for making informed and well-timed decisions. DGM takes the mystery out of seemingly complex economic interactions by providing an easy-to-understand framework within which to analyze the effects of economic, social, and political shocks to a nation’s economy. John E. Marthinsen integrates the three major macroeconomic sectors, which are the credit market, goods and services market, and foreign exchange market. The author provides the reader with contemporary examples that virtually leap off the front pages of our daily news reports and confront business managers and politicians with choices and decisions to make. For example, DGM shows how to use macroeconomic tools and a global framework to analyze the effects of: U.S. tariffs on China and China’s tariffs on the United States Infrastructure spending Speculative capital outflows from nations under stress, such as Argentina and Turkey, and speculative capital inflows into safe-haven countries, such as Switzerland Demonetization in India Successfully fighting the opioid abuse problem in the United States Border adjustment tax Monetary policies Fiscal policies Marthinsen keeps readers visually engaged with the strategic use of figures, tables, charts, and illustrative exhibits. Demystifying Global Macroeconomics emphasizes the interaction among markets and equips readers with a macroeconomic perspective that will last (and be used) for years. If you are adopting this book for a teaching course, please contact [email protected] to request additional instructional material.

Download or read book Economic Turbulence written by Clair Brown and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every day, in every sector of our economy, a business shuts down while another starts up, jobs are created while others are cut, and workers are hired while others are laid off. This constant flux, or turbulence, is a defining characteristic of our free market system, yet it mostly inspires angst about unemployment, loss of earnings, and the overall competitiveness of corporations. But is this endless cycle of fluctuation really so bad for America? Might something positive be going on in the economy as a result of it? In this penetrating work, three esteemed economists seek to answer these questions by exploring the real impact of volatility on American workers and businesses alike. According to the authors, while any number of events--shifts in consumer demand, changes in technology, mergers and acquisitions, or increased competition--can contribute to economic turbulence, our economy as a whole is, by and large, stronger for it, because these processes of creation and destruction make it more flexible and adaptable. The authors also acknowledge and document the adverse consequences of this turbulence on different groups of workers and firms and discuss the resulting policy challenges. Basing their argument on an up-close look into the dealings and practices of five key industries—financial services, retail food services, trucking, semiconductors, and software—the authors demonstrate the positive effects of turbulence on career paths, employee earnings, and firm performance. The first substantial attempt to disentangle and make clear the complexities of this phenomenon in the United States, Economic Turbulence will be viewed as a major achievement and the centerpiece of any discussion on the subject for years to come.

Download or read book The End of Affluence written by Jeffrey G. Madrick and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, reminiscent of the bestsellers Politics of Rich and Poor and Day of Reckoning, tells the real truth about America's long term economic decline--what caused it, what it has done to Americans, and what Americans should do about it. As the stock market soars, inflation recedes, and the federal budget deficit shrinks, the earnings of the typical American worker are still lower, adjusted for inflation, than they were a decade ago. Family income is only beginning to regain its lost ground, a higher proportion of Americans are living in poverty today than ten years ago, and the distribution of income remains the most unequal in the advanced industrial world. In this brilliantly clear, groundbreaking book, Jeffrey Madrick explains why prosperity has eluded so many Americans and why, since the early 1970s, our rate of economic growth has declined so dramatically. Madrick cuts through the illusions and hypocrisy that accompany the political rhetoric of both parties and shows that before we can fix the economy, we have to recognize what went wrong. Praise for The End of Affluence "The most straightforward account of the disappearing of the American Dream."--Commentary "In the tradition of the economists Robert Heilbroner and John Kenneth Galbraith, Mr. Madrick makes sophisticated economics easy reading."--The New York Times "One of the best books on what's happening in the American economy to be published in years."--Richard Nelson, Columbia University "For the layman looking to make sense of the 1990s economy, this is a short, accessible primer that clears away a lot of the underbrush and highlights the central truth about the American economy."--The Washington Post "Without question, The End of Affluence has begun to make a real impact on the future course of U.S. economic policy."--Richard Gephardt, Democratic leader, U.S. House of Representatives

Download or read book What Happens During Recessions Crunches and Busts written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42

Download or read book American Business Cycle Volatility in Historical Perspective written by Mark V. Siegler and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: