Download or read book Watershed Scale Climate Change Projections for Use in Hydrologic Studies written by Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 536 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered the most reliable source to provide the necessary data for climate change studies. At present, there is a wide variety of GCMs, which can be used for future projections of climate change using different emission scenarios. However, for assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change at the watershed and the regional scale, the GCM outputs cannot be used directly due to the mismatch in the spatial resolution between the GCMs and hydrological models. In order to use the output of a GCM for conducting hydrological impact studies, downscaling is used to convert the coarse spatial resolution of the GCM output into a fine resolution. In broad terms, downscaling techniques can be classified as dynamical downscaling and statistical downscaling. Statistical downscaling approaches are further classified into three broad categories, namely: (1) weather typing; (2) weather generators; and (3) multiple regression-based. For the assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change at the watershed scale, statistical downscaling is usually preferred over dynamical downscaling as station scale information required for such studies may not be directly obtained through dynamical downscaling. Among the variables commonly downscaled, precipitation downscaling is still quite challenging, which has been recognised by many recent studies. Moreover, statistical downscaling methods are usually considered to be not very effective for simulation of precipitation, especially extreme precipitation events. On the other hand, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are very likely to be impacted by envisaged climate change in most parts of the world, thus posing the risk of increased floods and droughts. In this situation, hydrologists should only rely on those statistical downscaling tools that are equally efficient for simulating mean precipitation as well as extreme precipitation events. There is a wide variety of statistical downscaling methods available under the three categories mentioned above, and each method has its strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, no single method has been developed which is considered universal for all kinds of conditions and all variables. In this situation there is a need for multi-model downscaling studies to produce probabilistic climate change projections rather than a point estimate of a projected change. In order to address some of the key issues in the field of statistical downscaling research, this thesis study includes the evaluation of two well established and popular downscaling models, i.e. the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), in terms of their ability to downscale precipitation, with its mean and extreme characteristics, for the Clutha River watershed in New Zealand. It also presents the development of a novel statistical downscaling tool using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and compares its performance with the SDSM-a widely used tool of similar nature. The GEP downscaling model proves to be a simpler and more efficient solution for precipitation downscaling than the SDSM model. Also, a major part of this study comprises of an evaluation of all the three downscaling models i.e. the SDSM, the LARS-WG and the GEP, in terms of their ability to simulate and downscale the frequency of extreme precipitation events, by fitting a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the annual maximum data obtained from the three models. Out of the three models, the GEP model appears to be the least efficient in simulating the frequency of extreme precipitation events while the other two models show reasonable capability in this regard. Furthermore, the research conducted for this thesis explores the development of a novel probabilistic multi-model ensemble of the three downscaling models, involved in the thesis study, using a Bayesian statistical framework and presents probabilistic projections of precipitation change for the Clutha watershed. In this way, the thesis endeavoured to contribute in the ongoing research related to statistical downscaling by addressing some of the key modern day issues highlighted by other leading researchers.
Download or read book Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability written by Assefa M. Melesse and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-07-03 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modelling, Adaptation and Mitigation is a compilation of contributions by experts from around the world who discuss extreme hydrology topics, from monitoring, to modeling and management. With extreme climatic and hydrologic events becoming so frequent, this book is a critical source, adding knowledge to the science of extreme hydrology. Topics covered include hydrometeorology monitoring, climate variability and trends, hydrological variability and trends, landscape dynamics, droughts, flood processes, and extreme events management, adaptation and mitigation. Each of the book's chapters provide background and theoretical foundations followed by approaches used and results of the applied studies. This book will be highly used by water resource managers and extreme event researchers who are interested in understanding the processes and teleconnectivity of large-scale climate dynamics and extreme events, predictability, simulation and intervention measures. Presents datasets used and methods followed to support the findings included, allowing readers to follow these steps in their own research Provides variable methodological approaches, thus giving the reader multiple hydrological modeling information to use in their work Includes a variety of case studies, thus making the context of the book relatable to everyday working situations for those studying extreme hydrology Discusses extreme event management, including adaption and mitigation
Download or read book Scale Issues in Hydrological Modelling written by J. D. Kalma and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1995-09-11 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a growing need for appropriate models which address the management of land and water resources and ecosystems at large space and time scales. Theories of non-linear hydrological processes must be extrapolated to large-scale, three-dimensional natural systems such as drainage basins, flood plains and wetlands. This book reports on recent progress in research on scale issues in hydrological modelling. It brings together 27 papers from two special issues of the journal Hydrological Processes. The book makes a significant contribution towards developing research strategies for linking model parameterisations across a range of temporal and spatial scales. The papers selected for this book reflect the tremendous advances which have been made in research into scale issues in hydrological modelling during the last ten years.
Download or read book Climate Change and Hydrological Systems written by Muhammad Zia Ur Rahman Hashmi and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2012-08 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are a major tool used for climate change projections under different emission scenarios. However, for assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change at watershed scale, GCM outputs cannot be used directly owing to the mismatch in spatial resolution between the GCMs and hydrological models. Thus a downscaling scheme (either statistical or dynamical) is employed. For hydrologic impact assessment studies, statistical downscaling is usually preferred over dynamical downscaling and among the variables usually downscaled, precipitation downscaling is more challenging than downscaling of other climatological variables. Therefore, this book is specifically focusing on addressing some of the contemporary issues in statistically downscaling of precipitation at watershed scale. Studies presented in this book make use of two widely used downscaling methods i.e. multiple linear regression and stochastic weather generator. Also, a new downscaling methodology using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) has been proposed. The issues discussed and analyzed in this book will facilitate further research in the area of statistical downscaling for hydrologic studies.
Download or read book Addressing Climate Change in Long term Water Resources Planning and Management written by Levi D. Brekke and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes the water management community¿s needs for climate change info. and tools to support long-term planning. Technical specialists and program managers have worked with their planners, water operators, and environmental compliance managers to identify the information and tools most relevant to their programs. They also have engaged and consulted with other Federal, State, and local agencies and stakeholder groups that have a role in water and water-related resource management to identify complementary priorities and individual perspectives. This report will help focus research and technology efforts to address info. and tools gaps relevant to the water management user community. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.
Download or read book A Case Study for Assessing the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change at the Watershed Scale written by Martinus Hubertus Brouwers and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the advent of the industrial era atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have been on the rise leading to increasing global mean temperatures. Through increasing temperatures and changes to distributions of precipitation, climate change will intensify the hydrologic cycle which will directly impact surface water sources while the impacts to groundwater are reflected through changes in recharge to the water table. The IPCC (2001) reports that limited investigations have been conducted regarding the impacts of climate change to groundwater resources. The complexity of evaluating the hydrologic impacts of climate change requires the use of a numerical model. This thesis investigates the state of the science of conjunctive surface-subsurface water modeling with the aim of determining a suitable approach for conducting long-term transient simulations at the watershed scale. As a result of this investigation, a coupled modeling approach is adopted using HELP3 to simulate surface and vadose zone processes and HydroSphere to simulate saturated flow of groundwater. This approach is applied to the Alder Creek Watershed, which is a subwatershed of the Grand River Watershed and located near Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario. The Alder Creek Watershed is a suitable case study for the evaluation of climate change scenarios as it has been well characterized from previous studies and it is relatively small in size. Two contrasting scenarios of climate change (i.e., drier and wetter futures) are evaluated relative to a reference scenario that is based on the historical climatic record of the region. The simulation results show a strong impact upon the timing of hydrologic processes, shifting the spring snow melt to earlier in the year leading to an overall decrease in runoff and increase in infiltration for both drier and wetter future climate scenarios. Both climate change scenarios showed a marked increase to overall evapotranspiration which is most pronounced in the summer months. The impacts to groundwater are more subdued relative to surface water. This is attributed to the climate forcing perturbations being attenuated by the shift of the spring snow melt and the transient storage effects of the vadose zone, which can be significant given the hummocky terrain of the region. The simulation results show a small overall rise of groundwater elevations resulting from the simulated increase in infiltration for both climate change scenarios.
Download or read book The National Hydrography Dataset written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 2 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate Change and Water Resources Management written by Levi D. Brekke and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-11 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation¿s water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. Charts and tables.
Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
Download or read book Colorado River Basin Water Management written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2007-06-30 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent studies of past climate and streamflow conditions have broadened understanding of long-term water availability in the Colorado River, revealing many periods when streamflow was lower than at any time in the past 100 years of recorded flows. That information, along with two important trends-a rapid increase in urban populations in the West and significant climate warming in the region-will require that water managers prepare for possible reductions in water supplies that cannot be fully averted through traditional means. Colorado River Basin Water Management assesses existing scientific information, including temperature and streamflow records, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model projections, and how it relates to Colorado River water supplies and demands, water management, and drought preparedness. The book concludes that successful adjustments to new conditions will entail strong and sustained cooperation among the seven Colorado River basin states and recommends conducting a comprehensive basinwide study of urban water practices that can be used to help improve planning for future droughts and water shortages.
Download or read book Advanced Evapotranspiration Methods and Applications written by Daniel Bucur and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2019-04-03 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the beginning of its formation approximately three billion years ago, the hydrosphere - as an envelope of the terrestrial ellipsoid - has remained constant from a quantitative point of view. The hydrosphere modifies only the ratio of the stretches of the planetary ocean and land, including the proportion of the states of water aggregation: gaseous, liquid, and solid.The hydrological cycle transports only a portion of the hydrosphere, repeats itself annually, and presents itself as a huge planetary plant that for billions of years has operated uninterruptedly on the basis of solar energy and gravity, providing freshwater resources for the maintenance and perpetuation of life beyond the planetary ocean.Water resources are highly influenced by the hydrologic cycle and play a role in agricultural economic development. However, as is shown by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, the phenomena of changing climate and land use are set to exacerbate an already serious situation of water supply for various users. In this context, scientific investigations into the issue of the sustainable use of water are timely and important. Improvement of water management involves the accurate estimation of consumptive uses. The purpose of this book is to show the achievements of scientists and academicians all over the world in promoting and sharing new issues on various topics related to evapotranspiration.
Download or read book Integrated Watershed Scale Response to Climate Change for Selected Basins Across the United States written by U.S. Department of the Interior and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-06-19 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results.
Download or read book Climate Change and Water Resources Planning Criteria written by Kenneth D. Frederick and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global climate change is expected to have major impacts on water resources and aquatic ecosystems. This prospect presents planners, who are already struggling to meet the demands of growing populations and economies, with new challenges. This volume examines these challenges and the resulting conceptual issues for water planning and project evaluation practices. The book is the first attempt to consider whether and how water resources, planning principles and evaluation criteria should be altered in view of the potential impacts of anthropogenically induced climate change. The principles and procedures that are in use today along with new approaches to nonstructural flood plain management, watershed management, water markets, and wetland banking will serve as the basis for the policies and strategies that deal with climate variability and anticipated change. This collection of papers reviews what water management ideas work, which ones need to be changed, and how planners and managers should begin incorporating aspects of risk and uncertainty into management decisions to deal expertly with climate change.
Download or read book Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change Assessed by Neural Network and Analytical Hierarchy Process written by Uttam Roy and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-28 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The increase in GHG gases in the atmosphere due to expansions in industrial and vehicular concentration is attributed to warming of the climate world wide. The resultant change in climatic pattern can induce abnormalities in the hydrological cycle. As a result, the regular functionality of river watersheds will also be affected. This Brief highlights a new methodology to rank the watersheds in terms of its vulnerability to change in climate. This Brief introduces a Vulnerability Index which will be directly proportional to the climatic impacts of the watersheds. Analytical Hierarchy Process and Artificial Neural Networks are used in a cascading manner to develop the model for prediction of the vulnerability index.
Download or read book Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research written by Douglas Maraun and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-01-18 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and practical guide, providing technical background and user context for researchers, graduate students, practitioners and decision makers. This book presents the main approaches and describes their underlying assumptions, skill and limitations. Guidelines for the application of downscaling and the use of downscaled information in practice complete the volume.
Download or read book Managing Protected Areas in Central and Eastern Europe Under Climate Change written by Sven Rannow and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-01-18 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beginning with an overview of data and concepts developed in the EU-project HABIT-CHANGE, this book addresses the need for sharing knowledge and experience in the field of biodiversity conservation and climate change. There is an urgent need to build capacity in protected areas to monitor, assess, manage and report the effects of climate change and their interaction with other pressures. The contributors identify barriers to the adaptation of conservation management, such as the mismatch between planning reality and the decision context at site level. Short and vivid descriptions of case studies, drawn from investigation areas all over Central and Eastern Europe, illustrate both the local impacts of climate change and their consequences for future management. These focus on ecosystems most vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, including alpine areas, wetlands, forests, lowland grasslands and coastal areas. The case studies demonstrate the application of adaptation strategies in protected areas like National Parks, Biosphere Reserves and Natural Parks, and reflect the potential benefits as well as existing obstacles. A general section provides the necessary background information on climate trends and their effects on abiotic and biotic components. Often, the parties to policy change and conservation management, including managers, land users and stakeholders, lack both expertise and incentives to undertake adaptation activities. The authors recognise that achieving the needed changes in behavior – habit – is as much a social learning process as a matter of science-based procedure. They describe the implementation of modeling, impact assessment and monitoring of climate conditions, and show how the results can support efforts to increase stakeholder involvement in local adaptation strategies. The book concludes by pointing out the need for more work to communicate the cross-sectoral nature of biodiversity protection, the value of well-informed planning in the long-term process of adaptation, the definition of acceptable change, and the motivational value of exchanging experience and examples of good practice.
Download or read book Impact of Global Climate Change on Extreme Streamflow written by Sabin Shrestha (Civil engineer) and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a widespread concern that climate change will lead to an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the 21st century. It is essential, from a watershed management point of view to understand how these alterations in the hydrologic regime would affect the existing water resources. This research, therefore, provides an overview of the hydrologic impacts on the Great Miami River Watershed in Ohio, USA due to projected climatic changes on both low flows and high flows. An extensively used hydrological model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. The multi-site model calibration and validation were performed using the SUFI-2 algorithm within SWAT-CUP. The model was calibrated (2005 - 2014) and validated (1995 - 2004) for monthly stream flows at the outlet resulting in Nash - Sutcliffe Coefficients of 0.86 and 0.83, respectively. An ensemble of ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate models from Fifth Phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to generate a probable set of climate data (precipitation and temperature). The climate data were then fed into the SWAT model and hydrological changes in the stream in terms of daily discharge were produced for three time-frames: (2016 - 2043) as 2035s, (2044 - 2071) as 2055s, and (2072 - 99) as 2085s and compared against the baseline period (1988 - 2015). The findings from this research showed that low flows using both hydrological and biological indices would increase more than 100% in 2035s but eventually decrease slightly in the later part of the century (2085s). However, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) used in this study predicted that the biological indices iv under RCP 8.5 would increase slightly at the beginning but decrease considerably in the middle and later part of the century. Analysis showed that the variability of the average 7-day low flows in each year would increase considerably for both emission scenarios. Furthermore, 75th percentile exceedance frequency of monthly low flows was found higher in September, October, and November during the study period. As for high flow analysis, the hydrological index for high flows (7Q10) from an ensemble of 10 climate models predicted to decrease consistently in future. When the results from the two RCPs are compared, high flows would decrease maximum by 22% in 2055s under RCP 8.5 and 21% in 2085s under RCP 4.5. However, the MIROC5 model in RCP 4.5 showed 1.2% increase in 7Q10 high flows during 2035s. The frequency of the 75th percentile non-exceedance flows was also projected to increase in the future. Under the RCP 4.5, the frequency becomes higher in 2055s whereas under the RCP 8.5 most frequent 75th percentile flow would occur in 2085s. Meanwhile, on a monthly scale, the peak would increase more on every month except January and December than that of historical records. The variability of peak discharge was also expected to increase in every other month in both scenarios. The peak would increase considerably especially in August, September, and October when compared to historical months, indicating relatively wetter months in the future years. Finally, this study has demonstrated the effects of changing climates projected by the climate models on extreme flow condition in the large agricultural watershed. The next step of the research will focus on further bias correction on simulated climate data and analysis for future.
