Download or read book Options for Volatile Markets written by Richard Lehman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-08-09 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical option strategies for the new post-crisis financial market Traditional buy-and-hold investing has been seriously challenged in the wake of the recent financial crisis. With economic and market uncertainty at a very high level, options are still the most effective tool available for managing volatility and downside risk, yet they remain widely underutilized by individuals and investment managers. In Options for Volatile Markets, Richard Lehman and Lawrence McMillan provide you with specific strategies to lower portfolio volatility, bulletproof your portfolio against any catastrophe, and tailor your investments to the precise level of risk you are comfortable with. While the core strategy of this new edition remains covered call writing, the authors expand into more comprehensive option strategies that offer deeper downside protection or even allow investors to capitalize on market or individual stock volatility. In addition, they discuss new offerings like weekly expirations and options on ETFs. For investors who are looking to capitalize on global investment opportunities but are fearful of lurking "black swans", this book shows how ETFs and options can be utilized to construct portfolios that are continuously protected against unforeseen calamities. A complete guide to the increased control and lowered risk covered call writing offers active investors and traders Addresses the changing investment environment and how to use options to succeed within it Explains how to use options with exchange-traded funds Understanding options is now more important than ever, and with Options for Volatile Markets as your guide, you'll quickly learn how to use them to protect your portfolio as well as improve its overall performance.

Download or read book Volatility Downside Risk written by Adam Farago and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper derives and tests the cross-sectional predictions of an intertemporal equilibrium asset pricing model with generalized disappointment aversion and time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty. To the contrary of the existing literature, disappointment may result not only from a fall in the market index, but also from a rise in a volatility index. Theoretically, we show that besides the market return and changes in market volatility, three two-asset option-like payoffs, contingent to the disappointing event, are also priced factors: a long binary cash-or-nothing option, a short put on the market index and a long call on the volatility index. Implied measures of market and volatility downside risks similar to those considered in the literature explicitly express as linear combinations of exposures to these options and their underlying instruments. Empirically, we find that the cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium for bearing undesirable exposures to these options. The signs of the estimated risk premia are consistent with theory, their economic magnitudes show that a long/short strategy on exposure to each of these options pays on average more than 5% per annum, and these rewards are not explained by coskewness, size, value, and momentum factors.

Download or read book Volatility Vs Downside Risk written by Diana Barro and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a consequence of recent market conditions an increasing number of investors are realizing the importance of controlling tail risk to reduce drawdowns thus increasing possibilities of achieving long-term objectives. Recently, so called volatility control strategies and volatility target approaches to investment have gained a lot of interest as strategies able to mitigate tail risk and produce better risk-adjusted returns. Essentially these are rule-based backward looking strategies in which no optimization is considered. In this contribution we focus on the role of volatility in downside risk reduction and, in particular, in tail risk reduction. The first contribution of our paper is to provide a viable way to integrate a target volatility approach, into a multiperiod portfolio optimization model, through the introduction of a local volatility control approach. Our optimized volatility control is contrasted with existing rule-based target volatility strategies, in an out-of sample simulation on real data, to assess the improvement that can be obtained from the optimization process.A second contribution of this work is to study the interaction between volatility control and downside risk control. We show that combining the two tools we can enhance the possibility of achieving the desired performance objectives and, simultaneously, we reduce the cost of hedging.The multiperiod portfolio optimization problem is formulated in a stochastic programming framework that provides the necessary flexibility for dealing with different constraints and multiple sources of risk.

Download or read book Preparing for the Worst written by Hrishikesh (Rick) D. Vinod and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-11-11 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely approach to downside risk and its role in stock market investments When dealing with the topic of risk analysis, most books on investments treat downside and upside risk equally. Preparing for the Worst takes an entirely novel approach by focusing on downside risk and explaining how to incorporate it into investment decisions. Highlighting this asymmetry of the stock market, the authors describe how existing theories miss the downside and follow with explanations of how it can be included. Various techniques for calculating downside risk are demonstrated. This book presents the latest ideas in the field from the ground up, making the discussion accessible to mathematicians and statisticians interested in applications in finance, as well as to finance professionals who may not have a mathematical background. An invaluable resource for anyone wishing to explore the critical issues of finance, portfolio management, and securities pricing, this book: Incorporates Value at Risk into the theoretical discussion Uses many examples to illustrate downside risk in U.S., international, and emerging market investments Addresses downside risk arising from fraud and corruption Includes step-by-step instructions on how to implement the methods introduced in this book Offers advice on how to avoid pitfalls in calculations and computer programming Provides software use information and tips

Download or read book Asset Allocation Performance Measurement and Downside Risk written by Alexandra Elisabeth Janovsky and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2001-03-26 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: Investors should not and in fact do not hold a single asset, they hold groups or portfolios of assets. An important aspect in portfolio theory is that the risk of a portfolio is more complex than the risk of its components. It depends on how much the assets represented in the portfolio move together, that is, on the correlation between the single assets. In portfolio theory, there are several definitions of risk: First of all, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) relies on the beta factor of an asset relative to the market as a measure for the asset s risk. On the other hand, also downside risk can be used in order to determine a portfolio s risk. The kind of risk in question is market risk, which is the risk of losses arising from adverse movements in market prices or rates. Market risk can be subdivided into interest rate risk, equity price risk, exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. For many investment decisions, there is a minimum return that has to be reached in order to meet different criteria. Returns above this minimum acceptable return ensure that these goals are reached and thus are not considered risky. Standard deviation captures the risk associated with achieving the mean, while downside risk assumes that only those returns that fall below the minimal acceptable return incur risk. One has to distinguish between good and bad volatility. Good volatility is dispersion above the minimal acceptable return, the farther above the minimal acceptable return, the better it is. One way of measuring downside risk is to consider the shortfall probability or chances of falling below the minimal acceptable return. Another possibility is measuring downside variance, i.e. variance of the returns falling below the minimal acceptable return. As a consequence, downside variance is very sensitive to the estimate of the mean of the return function, while standard deviation does not suffer from this problem. Thus the calculation of downside deviation is more difficult than the calculation of standard deviation. The quality of the calculation also depends on the choice of differencing interval of the time series. The calculation of downside risk assumes that financial time series follow either a normal or lognormal distribution. Finally, there is no universal risk measure for the many broad categories of risk. For example, standard deviation captures the risk of not achieving the mean, beta captures the risk of investing [...]

Download or read book Managing Downside Risk in Financial Markets written by Frank A. Sortino and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2001-10-02 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative methods have revolutionized the area of trading, regulation, risk management, portfolio construction, asset pricing and treasury activities, and governmental activity such as central banking to name but some of the applications. Downside-risk, as a quantitative method, is an accurate measurement of investment risk, because it captures the risk of not accomplishing the investor's goal. 'Downside Risk in Financial Markets' demonstrates how downside-risk can produce better results in performance measurement and asset allocation than variance modelling. Theory, as well as the practical issues involved in its implementation, is covered and the arguments put forward emphatically show the superiority of downside risk models to variance models in terms of risk measurement and decision making. Variance considers all uncertainty to be risky. Downside-risk only considers returns below that needed to accomplish the investor's goal, to be risky. Risk is one of the biggest issues facing the financial markets today. 'Downside Risk in Financial Markets' outlines the major issues for Investment Managers and focuses on "downside-risk" as a key activity in managing risk in investment/portfolio management. Managing risk is now THE paramount topic within the financial sector and recurring losses through the 1990s has shocked financial institutions into placing much greater emphasis on risk management and control. Free Software Enclosed To help you implement the knowledge you will gain from reading this book, a CD is enclosed that contains free software programs that were previously only available to institutional investors under special licensing agreement to The pension Research Institute. This is our contribution to the advancement of professionalism in portfolio management. The Forsey-Sortino model is an executable program that: 1. Runs on any PC without the need of any additional software. 2. Uses the bootstrap procedure developed by Dr. Bradley Effron at Stanford University to uncover what could have happened, instead of relying only on what did happen in the past. This is the best procedure we know of for describing the nature of uncertainty in financial markets. 3. Fits a three parameter lognormal distribution to the bootstrapped data to allow downside risk to be calculated from a continuous distribution. This improves the efficacy of the downside risk estimates. 4. Calculates upside potential and downside risk from monthly returns on any portfolio manager. 5. Calculates upside potential and downside risk from any user defined distribution. Forsey-Sortino Source Code: 1. The source code, written in Visual Basic 5.0, is provided for institutional investors who want to add these calculations to their existing financial services. 2. No royalties are required for this source code, providing institutions inform clients of the source of these calculations. A growing number of services are now calculating downside risk in a manner that we are not comfortable with. Therefore, we want investors to know when downside risk and upside potential are calculated in accordance with the methodology described in this book. Riddles Spreadsheet: 1. Neil Riddles, former Senior Vice President and Director of Performance Analysis at Templeton Global Advisors, now COO at Hansberger Global Advisors Inc., offers a free spreadsheet in excel format. 2. The spreadsheet calculates downside risk and upside potential relative to the returns on an index Brings together a range of relevant material, not currently available in a single volume source. Provides practical information on how financial organisations can use downside risk techniques and technological developments to effectively manage risk in their portfolio management. Provides a rigorous theoretical underpinning for the use of downside risk techniques. This is important for the long-run acceptance of the methodology, since such arguments justify consultant's recommendations to pension funds and other plan sponsors.

Download or read book Stochastic Volatility in Underlyings and Downside Risk of Derivative Portfolios written by Patrick L. Leoni and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We carry out a Monte-Carlo simulation of the downside risk of a standard derivative portfolio as a function of a change in stochastic volatility of the underlyings. We find that the reduction in downside risk for most loss levels becomes statistically significant only for very high volatility reversion levels. Those levels are hardly found in practice, and they lead to mild reductions of downside risk. The paper illustrates the counter-intuitive property that the common selection of underlyings with low fluctuations in volatility does not significantly reduce the downside risk of derivative portfolios, whereas it severely narrows down the set of tradable assets.

Download or read book Volatility Forecasting written by Francesco Audrino and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Volatility Derivatives and Downside Risk written by Yueh-Neng Lin and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The challenge in long volatility strategies is to minimize the cost of carrying such insurance due to negative roll yields and negative volatility risk premia. This study proposes a hedging strategy for volatility as an asset class that provides substantial protection against market crashes, while still participating upside preservation. The results show (i) timely hedging strategy removes the extreme negative tail risk and reduces the negative skewness in exchange for slightly fewer instances of large positive returns; (ii) dynamic allocation effectively mitigates the negative cost-of-carry problem; (iii) using volatility contracts as extreme downside hedges can be a viable alternative to buying out-of-the-money S&P 500 index puts; and (iv) the significant volatility-hedged return is a form of compensation for investable higher-moment equity risk factors.

Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Download or read book Managing Downside Risk for Portfolio Optimization written by CA. (Dr.) Hemlata Chelawat and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past decade, stock markets around the world have experienced unprecedented volatility. The steep fall in market values in most markets has adversely affected the investor interest. As a consequence, there is flight of investor capital away from the market. Use of traditional portfolio construction strategies to construct optimal portfolios, which maximize returns and minimize risk, is extremely difficult in such a volatile environment. This has led to a search for portfolio construction using new, innovative asset allocation and selection strategies. Construction of portfolio using the Martin Ratio or Ulcer Performance Index (UPI) is one such strategy designed specifically to address investor's stress of holding a stock by reducing downside volatility and providing investors with higher than benchmark returns. It measures the depth and duration of drawdown in prices from previous high. The purpose of this study is to use the Martin's Ratio to construct a model portfolio from amongst CNX Nifty 50 stocks and to compare its returns with the broad market returns. The study shows that the model portfolio constructed comprises minimum downward volatility stocks and yields an annual return higher than the market return. Hence, it is a very significant tool for identification of stocks for portfolio construction and optimisation.

Download or read book Harvesting the Downside Beta Premium with the Implied Volatility Term Structure written by Chrilly Donninger and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ang, Chen and Xing have shown in "Downside Risk" that stocks that covary strongly with the market during market declines have high average returns. The reward for bearing downside risk is not simply compensation for regular market beta, nor is it explained by coskewness or liquidity risk, or by size, value, and momentum characteristics. The downside beta premium is not for free. The drawdown is considerable amplified in times of market troubles. This working paper combines the results of Ang, Chen and Xing with a signal based approach developed in a previous working-paper. The implied-volatility-term-structure (IVTS) classifies market regimes. One invests only in the favorable regime fully into stocks with high downside beta. Due to this classification the downside beta premium is (almost) a free lunch.

Download or read book Separating Up from Down written by Laura Frieder and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The finding that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility tend to have low future returns has been dubbed an empirical anomaly in the finance literature. We seek to understand this puzzle by separating the upside volatility associated with positive idiosyncratic returns from the downside risk associated with negative idiosyncratic returns. We find that downside risk is not inversely related to future stock returns, thus easing the concern that the empirical anomaly is a mispricing of risk. Rather, our results suggest that it is upside volatility that drives the inverse idiosyncratic volatility and return relation. We further examine whether the relation of future returns with downside and upside volatility accords with investor underreaction to bad news and overreaction to good news. Finally, we show that momentum strategies may be enhanced by taking into account stocks' upside volatility.

Download or read book Volatility written by Robert A. Schwartz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-18 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volatility is very much with us in today's equity markets. Day-to-day price swings are often large and intra-day volatility elevated, especially at market openings and closings. What explains this? What does this say about the quality of our markets? Can short-period volatility be controlled by better market design and a more effective use of electronic technology? Featuring insights from an international array of prominent academics, financial markets experts, policymakers and journalists, the book addresses these and other questions concerning this timely topic. In so doing, we seek deeper knowledge of the dynamic process of price formation, and of the market structure and regulatory environment within which our markets function. The Zicklin School of Business Financial Markets Series presents the insights emerging from a sequence of conferences hosted by the Zicklin School at Baruch College for industry professionals, regulators, and scholars. Much more than historical documents, the transcripts from the conferences are edited for clarity, perspective and context; material and comments from subsequent interviews with the panelists and speakers are integrated for a complete thematic presentation. Each book is focused on a well delineated topic, but all deliver broader insights into the quality and efficiency of the U.S. equity markets and the dynamic forces changing them.

Download or read book Extreme Downside Risk and Financial Crises written by Richard D. F. Harris and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Downside Risks and the Cross Section of Asset Returns written by Adam Farago and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an intertemporal equilibrium asset pricing model featuring disappointment aversion and changing macroeconomic uncertainty, we show that besides the market return and market volatility, three disappointment-related factors are also priced: a downstate factor, a market downside factor, and a volatility downside factor. We find that expected returns on various asset classes reflect premiums for bearing undesirable exposures to these factors. The signs of estimated risk premiums are consistent with the theoretical predictions. Our most general, five-factor model is very successful in jointly pricing stock, option, and currency portfolios, and provides considerable improvement over nested specifications previously discussed in the literature.

Download or read book Risk and Rates of Return written by Maximilian Wegener and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-05-29 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 9.0, Maastricht University (SBE), course: Intermediate Financial Management, language: English, abstract: In 1996, Northern Electric and Mid-Continent Gas merged into the North Central Utilities (NCU) since both companies were convinced that future success is dependent on the provision of an entire set of energy sources. Furthermore the merger put both firms in a better position compared to their competitors, especially in view of the fact that in 1996, regulatory changes empowered companies to compete for business in other firm’s territories. Beforehand, competition basically did not exist and the profits were determined easily. Companies knew the amount of capital invested, the cost of capital and the product of those two demonstrated the profits, which had to be generated. In the following case, several questions will be answered to the changing conditions in the utility industry....