Download or read book Verification of Experimental Probabilistic Spot Fire weather Forecasts written by B. G. Brown and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Verication of Experimental Probabilistic Spot Fire weather Forecasts written by Barbara G. Brown and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Probability Fire Weather Forecasts Show Promise in 3 year Trial written by Paul G. Scowcroft and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Probability Fire Weather Forecasts Snow Promise in 3 Year Trial written by Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station (Berkeley, Calif.) and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Verification of the 1982 84 B C Fire Weather Probability Forecasts for the Occurrence of Rain written by Bob Beal and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Using Fire weather Forecasts and Local Weather Observations in Predicting Burning Index for Individual Fire danger Stations written by Owen P. Cramer and published by . This book was released on 1958 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Quantification of Uncertainty in Operational and Experimental Fire danger Forecasts written by Barbara G. Brown and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Fire Management Notes written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The International Bibliography of Wildland Fire written by Jason M. Greenlee and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 804 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Probability Fire Weather Forecasts written by Paul G. Scowcroft and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Multivariate Probabilistic Post Processing and Verification of Medium Range Weather Forecasts written by Jessica Keune and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Examining Atmospheric and Ecological Drivers of Wildfires Modeling Wildfire Occurrence in the Southwest United States and Using Atmospheric Sounding Observations to Verify National Weather Service Spot Forecasts written by Nicholas John Nauslar and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is comprised of three different papers that all pertain to wildland fire applications. The first paper performs a verification analysis on mixing height, transport winds, and Haines Index from National Weather Service spot forecasts across the United States. The final two papers, which are closely related, examine atmospheric and ecological drivers of wildfire for the Southwest Area (SWA) (Arizona, New Mexico, west Texas, and Oklahoma panhandle) to better equip operational fire meteorologists and managers to make informed decisions on wildfire potential in this region. The verification analysis here utilizes NWS spot forecasts of mixing height, transport winds and Haines Index from 2009-2013 issued for a location within 50 km of an upper sounding location and valid for the day of the fire event. Mixing height was calculated from the 0000 UTC sounding via the Stull, Holzworth, and Richardson methods. Transport wind speeds were determined by averaging the wind speed through the boundary layer as determined by the three mixing height methods from the 0000 UTC sounding. Haines Index was calculated at low, mid, and high elevation based on the elevation of the sounding and spot forecast locations. Mixing height forecasts exhibited large mean absolute errors and biased towards over forecasting. Forecasts of transport wind speeds and Haines Index outperformed mixing height forecasts with smaller errors relative to their respective means. The rainfall and lightning associated with the North American Monsoon (NAM) can vary greatly intra- and inter-annually and has a large impact on wildfire activity across the SWA by igniting or suppressing wildfires. NAM onset thresholds and subsequent dates are determined for the SWA and each Predictive Service Area (PSA), which are sub-regions used by operational fire meteorologists to predict wildfire potential within the SWA, April through September from 1995-2013. Various wildfire activity thresholds using the number of wildfires and large wildfires identified days or time periods with increased wildfire activity for each PSA and the SWA. Self-organizing maps utilizing 500 and 700 hPa geopotential heights and precipitable water were implemented to identify atmospheric patterns contributing to the NAM onset and busy days/periods for each PSA and the SWA. Resulting SOM map types also showed the transition to, during, and from the NAM. Northward and eastward displacements of the subtropical ridge (i.e., four-corners high) over the SWA were associated with NAM onset, and a suppressed subtropical ridge and breakdown of the subtropical ridge map types over the SWA were associated with increased wildfire activity. We implemented boosted regression trees (BRT) to model wildfire occurrence for all and large wildfires for different wildfire types (i.e., lightning, human) across the SWA by PSA. BRT models for all wildfires demonstrated relatively small mean and mean absolute errors and showed better predictability on days with wildfires. Cross-validated accuracy assessments for large wildfires demonstrated the ability to discriminate between large wildfire and non-large wildfire days across all wildfire types. Measurements describing fuel conditions (i.e., 100 and 1000-hour dead fuel moisture, energy release component) were the most important predictors when considering all wildfire types and sizes. However, a combination of fuels and atmospheric predictors (i.e., lightning, temperature) proved most predictive for large wildfire occurrence, and the number of relevant predictors increases for large wildfires indicating more conditions need to align to support large wildfires.

Download or read book Aware written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms

Download or read book General Technical Report INT written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book BEHAVE written by Patricia L. Andrews and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the third publication describWilding the BEHAVE system of computer programs for predicting behavior of wildland fires. This publication adds the following predictive capabilities: distance firebrands are lofted ahead of a wind-driven surface fire, probabilities of firebrands igniting spot fires, scorch height of trees, and percentage of tree mortality. The system includes a separate module for graphing moisture content of fine, dead fuels. Basic assumptions, limitations, and application of the prediction models are discussed. Previous publications in the BEHAVE series are BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system-FUEL subsystem (Burgan and Rothermel 1984), and BEHAVE: fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system-BURN subsystem, Part 1 (Andrews 1986).