Download or read book Accelerating Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference in dynamical models written by Johan Dahlin and published by Linköping University Electronic Press. This book was released on 2016-03-22 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.

Download or read book Robust Monte Carlo Methods for Light Transport Simulation written by Eric Veach and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Reinforcement Learning second edition written by Richard S. Sutton and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2018-11-13 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The significantly expanded and updated new edition of a widely used text on reinforcement learning, one of the most active research areas in artificial intelligence. Reinforcement learning, one of the most active research areas in artificial intelligence, is a computational approach to learning whereby an agent tries to maximize the total amount of reward it receives while interacting with a complex, uncertain environment. In Reinforcement Learning, Richard Sutton and Andrew Barto provide a clear and simple account of the field's key ideas and algorithms. This second edition has been significantly expanded and updated, presenting new topics and updating coverage of other topics. Like the first edition, this second edition focuses on core online learning algorithms, with the more mathematical material set off in shaded boxes. Part I covers as much of reinforcement learning as possible without going beyond the tabular case for which exact solutions can be found. Many algorithms presented in this part are new to the second edition, including UCB, Expected Sarsa, and Double Learning. Part II extends these ideas to function approximation, with new sections on such topics as artificial neural networks and the Fourier basis, and offers expanded treatment of off-policy learning and policy-gradient methods. Part III has new chapters on reinforcement learning's relationships to psychology and neuroscience, as well as an updated case-studies chapter including AlphaGo and AlphaGo Zero, Atari game playing, and IBM Watson's wagering strategy. The final chapter discusses the future societal impacts of reinforcement learning.

Download or read book Foundations of Data Science written by Avrim Blum and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-01-23 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an introduction to the mathematical and algorithmic foundations of data science, including machine learning, high-dimensional geometry, and analysis of large networks. Topics include the counterintuitive nature of data in high dimensions, important linear algebraic techniques such as singular value decomposition, the theory of random walks and Markov chains, the fundamentals of and important algorithms for machine learning, algorithms and analysis for clustering, probabilistic models for large networks, representation learning including topic modelling and non-negative matrix factorization, wavelets and compressed sensing. Important probabilistic techniques are developed including the law of large numbers, tail inequalities, analysis of random projections, generalization guarantees in machine learning, and moment methods for analysis of phase transitions in large random graphs. Additionally, important structural and complexity measures are discussed such as matrix norms and VC-dimension. This book is suitable for both undergraduate and graduate courses in the design and analysis of algorithms for data.

Download or read book The Multi Agent Transport Simulation MATSim written by Andreas Horni and published by Ubiquity Press. This book was released on 2016-08-10 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation) software project was started around 2006 with the goal of generating traffic and congestion patterns by following individual synthetic travelers through their daily or weekly activity programme. It has since then evolved from a collection of stand-alone C++ programs to an integrated Java-based framework which is publicly hosted, open-source available, automatically regression tested. It is currently used by about 40 groups throughout the world. This book takes stock of the current status. The first part of the book gives an introduction to the most important concepts, with the intention of enabling a potential user to set up and run basic simulations. The second part of the book describes how the basic functionality can be extended, for example by adding schedule-based public transit, electric or autonomous cars, paratransit, or within-day replanning. For each extension, the text provides pointers to the additional documentation and to the code base. It is also discussed how people with appropriate Java programming skills can write their own extensions, and plug them into the MATSim core. The project has started from the basic idea that traffic is a consequence of human behavior, and thus humans and their behavior should be the starting point of all modelling, and with the intuition that when simulations with 100 million particles are possible in computational physics, then behavior-oriented simulations with 10 million travelers should be possible in travel behavior research. The initial implementations thus combined concepts from computational physics and complex adaptive systems with concepts from travel behavior research. The third part of the book looks at theoretical concepts that are able to describe important aspects of the simulation system; for example, under certain conditions the code becomes a Monte Carlo engine sampling from a discrete choice model. Another important aspect is the interpretation of the MATSim score as utility in the microeconomic sense, opening up a connection to benefit cost analysis. Finally, the book collects use cases as they have been undertaken with MATSim. All current users of MATSim were invited to submit their work, and many followed with sometimes crisp and short and sometimes longer contributions, always with pointers to additional references. We hope that the book will become an invitation to explore, to build and to extend agent-based modeling of travel behavior from the stable and well tested core of MATSim documented here.

Download or read book Creating Autonomous Vehicle Systems written by Shaoshan Liu and published by Morgan & Claypool Publishers. This book was released on 2017-10-25 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the first technical overview of autonomous vehicles written for a general computing and engineering audience. The authors share their practical experiences of creating autonomous vehicle systems. These systems are complex, consisting of three major subsystems: (1) algorithms for localization, perception, and planning and control; (2) client systems, such as the robotics operating system and hardware platform; and (3) the cloud platform, which includes data storage, simulation, high-definition (HD) mapping, and deep learning model training. The algorithm subsystem extracts meaningful information from sensor raw data to understand its environment and make decisions about its actions. The client subsystem integrates these algorithms to meet real-time and reliability requirements. The cloud platform provides offline computing and storage capabilities for autonomous vehicles. Using the cloud platform, we are able to test new algorithms and update the HD map—plus, train better recognition, tracking, and decision models. This book consists of nine chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of autonomous vehicle systems; Chapter 2 focuses on localization technologies; Chapter 3 discusses traditional techniques used for perception; Chapter 4 discusses deep learning based techniques for perception; Chapter 5 introduces the planning and control sub-system, especially prediction and routing technologies; Chapter 6 focuses on motion planning and feedback control of the planning and control subsystem; Chapter 7 introduces reinforcement learning-based planning and control; Chapter 8 delves into the details of client systems design; and Chapter 9 provides the details of cloud platforms for autonomous driving. This book should be useful to students, researchers, and practitioners alike. Whether you are an undergraduate or a graduate student interested in autonomous driving, you will find herein a comprehensive overview of the whole autonomous vehicle technology stack. If you are an autonomous driving practitioner, the many practical techniques introduced in this book will be of interest to you. Researchers will also find plenty of references for an effective, deeper exploration of the various technologies.

Download or read book Statistical Rethinking written by Richard McElreath and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

Download or read book Introduction to Probability written by Joseph K. Blitzstein and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-07-24 with total page 599 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed from celebrated Harvard statistics lectures, Introduction to Probability provides essential language and tools for understanding statistics, randomness, and uncertainty. The book explores a wide variety of applications and examples, ranging from coincidences and paradoxes to Google PageRank and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Additional application areas explored include genetics, medicine, computer science, and information theory. The print book version includes a code that provides free access to an eBook version. The authors present the material in an accessible style and motivate concepts using real-world examples. Throughout, they use stories to uncover connections between the fundamental distributions in statistics and conditioning to reduce complicated problems to manageable pieces. The book includes many intuitive explanations, diagrams, and practice problems. Each chapter ends with a section showing how to perform relevant simulations and calculations in R, a free statistical software environment.

Download or read book Ecological Inference written by Gary King and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-09-13 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing upon the recent explosion of research in the field, a diverse group of scholars surveys the latest strategies for solving ecological inference problems, the process of trying to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. The uncertainties and information lost in aggregation make ecological inference one of the most difficult areas of statistical inference, but these inferences are required in many academic fields, as well as by legislatures and the Courts in redistricting, marketing research by business, and policy analysis by governments. This wide-ranging collection of essays offers many fresh and important contributions to the study of ecological inference.

Download or read book SAS STAT 9 3 User s Guide written by Sas Institute and published by . This book was released on 2011-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The GLIMMIX procedure fits and analyzes generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), models with random effects for data that can be nonnormally distributed. This title is also available online.

Download or read book Essentials of Stochastic Processes written by Richard Durrett and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-07 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building upon the previous editions, this textbook is a first course in stochastic processes taken by undergraduate and graduate students (MS and PhD students from math, statistics, economics, computer science, engineering, and finance departments) who have had a course in probability theory. It covers Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, Poisson processes, renewal processes, martingales, and option pricing. One can only learn a subject by seeing it in action, so there are a large number of examples and more than 300 carefully chosen exercises to deepen the reader’s understanding. Drawing from teaching experience and student feedback, there are many new examples and problems with solutions that use TI-83 to eliminate the tedious details of solving linear equations by hand, and the collection of exercises is much improved, with many more biological examples. Originally included in previous editions, material too advanced for this first course in stochastic processes has been eliminated while treatment of other topics useful for applications has been expanded. In addition, the ordering of topics has been improved; for example, the difficult subject of martingales is delayed until its usefulness can be applied in the treatment of mathematical finance.

Download or read book Vehicle Dynamics Estimation using Kalman Filtering written by Moustapha Doumiati and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-12-14 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vehicle dynamics and stability have been of considerable interest for a number of years. The obvious dilemma is that people naturally desire to drive faster and faster yet expect their vehicles to be “infinitely” stable and safe during all normal and emergency maneuvers. For the most part, people pay little attention to the limited handling potential of their vehicles until some unusual behavior is observed that often results in accidents and even fatalities. This book presents several model-based estimation methods which involve information from current potential-integrable sensors. Improving vehicle control and stabilization is possible when vehicle dynamic variables are known. The fundamental problem is that some essential variables related to tire/road friction are difficult to measure because of technical and economical reasons. Therefore, these data must be estimated. It is against this background, that this book’s objective is to develop estimators in order to estimate the vehicle’s load transfer, the sideslip angle, and the vertical and lateral tire/road forces using a roll model. The proposed estimation processes are based on the state observer (Kalman filtering) theory and the dynamic response of a vehicle instrumented with standard sensors. These estimators are able to work in real time in normal and critical driving situations. Performances are tested using an experimental car in real driving situations. This is exactly the focus of this book, providing students, technicians and engineers from the automobile field with a theoretical basis and some practical algorithms useful for estimating vehicle dynamics in real-time during vehicle motion.

Download or read book Index to Theses with Abstracts Accepted for Higher Degrees by the Universities of Great Britain and Ireland and the Council for National Academic Awards written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Computer Vision written by Song-Chun Zhu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-03-15 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the first book of a three-part series, this book is offered as a tribute to pioneers in vision, such as Béla Julesz, David Marr, King-Sun Fu, Ulf Grenander, and David Mumford. The authors hope to provide foundation and, perhaps more importantly, further inspiration for continued research in vision. This book covers David Marr's paradigm and various underlying statistical models for vision. The mathematical framework herein integrates three regimes of models (low-, mid-, and high-entropy regimes) and provides foundation for research in visual coding, recognition, and cognition. Concepts are first explained for understanding and then supported by findings in psychology and neuroscience, after which they are established by statistical models and associated learning and inference algorithms. A reader will gain a unified, cross-disciplinary view of research in vision and will accrue knowledge spanning from psychology to neuroscience to statistics.

Download or read book Bayesian Networks written by Marco Scutari and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-07-28 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the material step-by-step starting from meaningful examples Steps detailed with R code in the spirit of reproducible research Real world data analyses from a Science paper reproduced and explained in detail Examples span a variety of fields across social and life sciences Overview of available software in and outside R

Download or read book A Guide to Monte Carlo Simulations in Statistical Physics written by David P. Landau and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-08-17 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes all aspects of Monte Carlo simulation of complex physical systems encountered in condensed-matter physics and statistical mechanics, as well as in related fields, such as polymer science and lattice gauge theory. The authors give a succinct overview of simple sampling methods and develop the importance sampling method. In addition they introduce quantum Monte Carlo methods, aspects of simulations of growth phenomena and other systems far from equilibrium, and the Monte Carlo Renormalization Group approach to critical phenomena. The book includes many applications, examples, and current references, and exercises to help the reader.

Download or read book Introduction to Probability written by David F. Anderson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-02 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.