Download or read book Value at Risk in Emerging Markets written by Helder Centeno and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study focuses on the relative performance of three Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation methodologies. The daily stock market index returns of twelve different emerging markets are used for the empirical analysis. In addition to the well-known methodologies, such as the historical simulation and GARCH-based ones, the extreme value theory (EVT) is also used to estimate the daily VaR. In this paper, we focus on EVT because it studies the non-linear estimation of the tails and we expect to find many extreme events when analysing the return distributions in these twelve emerging markets. We focus on the negative extreme events rather than on the positive ones. The daily VaR is forecasted at three different quantile levels: 90%, 97.5%, 99.9%; and competing methodologies are back-tested accordingly. The results indicate that the historical simulation and GARCH-based methodologies work better at lower quantile levels than they do at higher quantile levels, while VaR estimated using EVT is more accurate at higher quantiles. EVT provides better information about extreme events, especially when financial distress occurs in these economies.
Download or read book Comparing Different Methods for Estimating Value at risk VaR in Emerging Markets written by Kok Choy Wong and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Risk and Return in Asian Emerging Markets written by N. Cakici and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-08-13 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk and Return in Asian Emerging Markets offers readers a firm insight into the risk and return characteristics of leading Asian emerging market participants by comparing and contrasting behavioral model variables with predictive forecasting methods.
Download or read book Risk Management in Emerging Markets written by Sabri Boubaker and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 746 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses three main dimensions of risk management in emerging markets: 1) the effectiveness of risk management practices; 2) current issues and challenges in risk assessment and modelling in emerging market countries; 3) the responses of emerging markets to the recent financial crises and the design of risk management models.
Download or read book Risk Management in Emerging Markets written by S. Motamen-Samadian and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-10-11 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a thorough analysis of risk management in emerging markets. A collection of eight studies, each chapter examines the range of risks that investors face in an emerging market, and the methods that should be used to manage these risks. It includes the latest empirical studies on the role of insider trading and the extent of information efficiency of these markets, and a comprehensive assessment of the suitability of the Value at Risk models to emerging markets.
Download or read book Measuring Market Risk with Value at Risk written by Pietro Penza and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2001 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book, Measuring Market Risk with Value at Risk by Vipul Bansal and Pietro Penza, has three advantages over earlier works on the subject. First, it takes a decidedly global approach-an essential ingredient for any comprehensive work on market risk. Second, it ties the scientifically grounded, yet intuitively appealing, VaR measure to earlier, more idiosyncratic measures of market risk that are used in specific market environs (e.g., duration in fixed income). Finally, it encompasses all of the accepted approaches to calculating a VaR measure and presents them in a clearly explained fashion with supporting illustrations and completely worked-out examples." -from the Foreword by John F. Marshall, PhD, Principal, Marshall, Tucker & Associates, LLC "Measuring Market Risk with Value at Risk offers a much-needed intellectual bridge, a translation from the esoteric realm of mathematical finance to the domain of financial managers who seek guidance in applying developments from this important field of research as well as that of MBA-level graduate instruction. I believe the authors have done a commendable job of providing a carefully crafted, highly readable, and most useful work, and intend to recommend it to all those involved in business risk management applications." -Anthony F. Herbst, PhD, Professor of Finance and C.R. and D.S. Carter Chair, The University of Texas, El Paso and Founding editor of The Journal of Financial Engineering (1991-1998) "Finally there's a book that strikes a balance between rigor and application in the area of risk management in the banking industry. This innovative book is a MUST for both novices and professionals alike." -Robert P. Yuyuenyongwatana, PhD, Associate Professor of Finance, Cameron University "Measuring Market Risk with Value at Risk is one of the most complete discussions of this emerging topic in finance that I have seen. The authors develop a logical and rigorous framework for using VaR models, providing both historical references and analytical applications." -Kevin Wynne, PhD, Associate Professor of Finance, Lubin School of Business, Pace University
Download or read book Evaluation of Value at Risk in Emerging Markets written by Siva Kiran Kare and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial institutions have witnessed numerous episodes of financial crises all over the world during the last four decades. The researchers, academicians and policy makers in the field of finance studied these episodes extensively and to mitigate the risk involved in these crises have proposed several measures in the financial literature, but Value at Risk (VaR) has emerged as a more popular risk measurement technique. Although a number of studies have been undertaken in this area of research for developed markets but very few studies have been conducted in developing and emerging market economies. This study makes an attempt to evaluate the performance of VaR in emerging markets namely Brazil, Russia, India and China by considering Historical, Monte Carlo and GARCH Simulations to calculate VaR for the period 1998 to 2015. The study found that GJRGARCH Simulation is more suitable for Brazil and China while Historical Simulation for Russian and Indian Stock Markets based on the backtesting experiment.
Download or read book Value at Risk Models for Volatile Emerging Markets Equity Portfolios written by Manolis G. Kavussanos and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the issue of market risk quantification for emerging and developed market equity portfolios. A very wide spectrum of popular and widely used in practice Value at Risk (VaR) models are evaluated and compared with Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and adaptive filtered models, during normal, crises, and post-crises periods. The results are interesting and indicate that despite the documented differences between emerging and developed markets, the most successful VaR models are common for both asset classes. Furthermore, in the case of the (fatter tailed) emerging market equity portfolios, most VaR models turn out to yield conservative risk forecasts, in contrast to developed market equity portfolios, where most models underestimate the realized VaR. VaR estimation during periods of financial turmoil seems to be a difficult task, particularly in the case of emerging markets and especially for the higher loss quantiles. VaR models seem to be affected less by crises periods in the case of developed markets. The performance of the parametric (non parametric) VaR models improves (deteriorates) during post-crises periods due to the inclusion of extreme events in the estimation sample.
Download or read book Implementing Value at Risk written by Philip Best and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2000-11-21 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Implementing Value at Risk Philip Best Value at Risk (VAR) is an estimate of the potential loss on a trading or investment portfolio. Its use has swept the banking world and is now accepted as an essential tool in any risk manager's briefcase. Perhaps the greatest strength of VAR is that it can cope with virtually all financial products, from simple securities through to complex exotic derivatives. This allows the risk taken, across diverse trading activities, to be compared. This said, VAR is no panacea. It is as critical to understand when the use of VAR is inappropriate as it is to understand the value VAR can add to a bank's understanding and control of its risks. This book aims to explain how VAR can be used as an integral part of a risk and business management framework, rather than as a stand-alone tool. The objectives of this book are to explain: What VAR is - and isn't! How to calculate VAR - the three main methods Why stress testing is needed to complement VAR How to make stress testing effective How to use VAR and stress testing to manage risk How to use VAR to improve a bank's performance VAR as a regulatory measure of risk and capital Risk management practitioners, general bank managers, consultants and students of finance and risk management will find this book, and the software package included, an invaluable addition to their library. Finance/Investment
Download or read book Emerging Markets and the Global Economy written by Mohammed El Hedi Arouri and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-12-26 with total page 927 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging Markets and the Global Economy investigates analytical techniques suited to emerging market economies, which are typically prone to policy shocks. Despite the large body of emerging market finance literature, their underlying dynamics and interactions with other economies remain challenging and mysterious because standard financial models measure them imprecisely. Describing the linkages between emerging and developed markets, this collection systematically explores several crucial issues in asset valuation and risk management. Contributors present new theoretical constructions and empirical methods for handling cross-country volatility and sudden regime shifts. Usually attractive for investors because of the superior growth they can deliver, emerging markets can have a low correlation with developed markets. This collection advances your knowledge about their inherent characteristics. Foreword by Ali M. Kutan Concentrates on post-crisis roles of emerging markets in the global economy Reports on key theoretical and technical developments in emerging financial markets Forecasts future developments in linkages among developed and emerging economies
Download or read book Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets written by Campbell R. Harvey and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The emergence of new equity markets in Europe, Latin America, Asia, the Mideast and Africa provides a new menu of opportunities for investors. These markets exhibit high expected returns as well as high volatility. Importantly, the low correlations with developed countries' equity markets significantly reduces the unconditional portfolio risk of a world investor. However, standard global asset pricing models, which assume complete integration of capital markets, fail to explain the cross-section of average returns in emerging countries. An analysis of the predictability of the returns reveals that emerging market returns are more likely than developed countries to be influenced by local information.
Download or read book Modeling Value at Risk VaR for Emerging and Developed Markets written by Melissa Makhoul Bou Zeidan and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to forecast and measure the accuracy of VaR for the "MSCI world index" and the "MSCI emerging markets index" using three methods of historical simulation. The historical simulation VaR models are represented by: basic historical simulation, GARCH (1, 1) volatility-weighted historical simulation model, and EGARCH (1, 1) volatility-weighted historical simulation model. Design/Methodology/Approach: Scenarios of future returns are generated for each day of the out-of-sample period, to end up with 435,000 scenarios for each stock index and for each VaR method utilized. These scenarios are calculated first using the basic historical simulation method and second by incorporating volatility updating to the historical simulation. VaR values for the last 500 days of the data samples are calculated by taking the percentile that corresponds to different confidence level: 90%, 95% and 99%. The accuracy of each model is determined by applying the Kupiec test. Findings: Kupiec test results reveal that both the GARCH (1, 1) and the EGARCH (1, 1) volatility-weighted historical simulation models are classified as the best performing models at all confidence levels for the developed markets index. While the basic historical simulation is ranked as the worst model since it is rejected at the 90% confidence level. The GARCH (1, 1) volatility-weighted model is the only model accepted at all confidence level for the emerging markets index, whereby the basic historical simulation fails to produce an accurate VaR at a 90%, 95% and 99% confidence levels. On the other hand, the EGARCH (1, 1) volatility-weighted model is ranked as the second best model for the emerging markets index since the 90% and 95% VaRs are accepted while the 99% VaR underestimates the risk.
Download or read book Risk Management in Emerging Markets written by Carl Olsson and published by Financial Times/Prentice Hall. This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding risk in emerging markets is a critical success factor for management today. Risk management is about controlled decision making rather than risk avoidance. Balancing risk and reward is increasingly important but reward does not come without risk. Risk Management in Emerging Markets is primarily concerned with the risks facing long-term investors who put their money in real assets rather than financial ones such as investing in stock markets, but everyone interested in emerging markets will find value in reading this book. It will help open managers' eyes to risks and provide solutions. It also seeks to answer the question 'What makes emerging markets different and how does this impact on risk?' rather than how to make a quick return, as many other books do. The book addresses in detail the question of 'What is risk?' and then covers the basics of identification, measurement and management of risk before considering how things work or don't work in practice in emerging markets. It also considers recent trends and extrapolates into the future possible developments within the field. A selection of international case studies and examples from both the corporate and banking sectors highlight key risks in the UK, US and Europe as well as emerging markets. These help illustrate the fact that today's business world is more integrated, more volatile and more hostile than it has ever been. Risk Management in Emerging Markets is an essential guide for managers in both non-commercial and commercial organizations, as well as students of risk and risk management. Those wanting to survive, or even win, would be wise to read this book before their competitors do.
Download or read book Evaluating Predictive Performance of Value at risk Models in Emerging Markets written by Tae-Hwy Lee and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Valuation written by McKinsey & Company Inc. and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-07-16 with total page 860 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The number one guide to corporate valuation is back and better than ever Thoroughly revised and expanded to reflect business conditions in today's volatile global economy, Valuation, Fifth Edition continues the tradition of its bestselling predecessors by providing up-to-date insights and practical advice on how to create, manage, and measure the value of an organization. Along with all new case studies that illustrate how valuation techniques and principles are applied in real-world situations, this comprehensive guide has been updated to reflect new developments in corporate finance, changes in accounting rules, and an enhanced global perspective. Valuation, Fifth Edition is filled with expert guidance that managers at all levels, investors, and students can use to enhance their understanding of this important discipline. Contains strategies for multi-business valuation and valuation for corporate restructuring, mergers, and acquisitions Addresses how you can interpret the results of a valuation in light of a company's competitive situation Also available: a book plus CD-ROM package (978-0-470-42469-8) as well as a stand-alone CD-ROM (978-0-470-42457-7) containing an interactive valuation DCF model Valuation, Fifth Edition stands alone in this field with its reputation of quality and consistency. If you want to hone your valuation skills today and improve them for years to come, look no further than this book.
Download or read book Portfolio Flows Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets written by Nasha Ananchotikul and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-19 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion drive asset volatility in emerging markets? We use a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH framework to estimate the impact of portfolio flows and the VIX index on three asset prices, namely equity returns, bond yields and exchange rates, in 17 emerging economies. The analysis shows that global risk aversion has a significant impact on the volatility of asset prices, while the magnitude of that impact correlates with country characteristics, including financial openness, the exchange rate regime, as well as macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and the current account balance. In line with earlier literature, portfolio flows to emerging markets are also found to affect the level of asset prices, as was the case in particular during the global financial crisis.
Download or read book Corporate Risk Management in Emerging Markets written by Marvin Arras and published by Anchor Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2016-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing risks is essential for corporations and has a tremendous impact on their performance. However, doing it sufficiently can be challenging, especially in Emerging Markets (EMs). Due to its underdeveloped environment, corporations often face enormous difficulties while managing risk in these countries. The purpose of this study is to outline the issues and differences of corporate risk management in emerging economies compared to Developed Markets (DMs). After a short introduction, the second chapter describes risk management in DMs and gives an overview of common corporate risks. The third chapter characterizes EMs and details its risk management. In that connection, the focus lies on (1) the risk management process, (2) the measurement of risk and (3) the tools and techniques to mitigate risks in EMs. Conclusively, the study summarizes the main factors for corporations that are fundamental for managing risks in EMs effectively.
