Download or read book Using Reconstructed Outbreak Histories of Mountain Pine Beetle Fire and Climate to Predict the Risk of Future Outbreaks written by Kathy J. Lewis and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) is a native bark beetle of forests in BC, and there is documented evidence of outbreaks dating back to 1910. The current outbreak is substantially larger than past documented outbreaks, but the temporal scale of landscape-level forest change is much longer than the limited scope of recorded history. It is possible that the scale of management-induced changes to forest structure through fire suppression and forestry practices, and the mounting evidence of a changing climate, have contributed to an outbreak that is well outside the natural range of variation. The purpose of this project is to determine the magnitude and synchrony of historical beetle outbreaks in sub-boreal forests of central BC, and to relate those with climate factors and changes in fire regimes. Our focus is on the north-central part of BC, in areas that in the past have been less conducive to large scale mountain pine beetle outbreaks and less influenced by fire suppression, to determine whether or not the current outbreak in this area is due to the enormous population build-up alone, or whether changes in climate and/or fire regime have played a role. Using dendroecological methods, we have successfully reconstructed multiple mountain pine beetle outbreaks and calibrated our detection methods based on historical survey information. Our investigation of climate/outbreak relationships is underway and suggests that the timing of outbreaks in this area can be linked to periods of favourable climate for mountain pine beetle population growth.
Download or read book Incorporating Present and Future Climatic Suitability Into Decision Support Tools to Predict Geographic Spread of the Mountain Pine Beetle written by Terence Leckie Shore and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main goal of this project was to adapt existing mountain pine beetle (MPB) decision-support tools to incorporate climatic suitability information to refine the spatial characterization of present climate and to support assessments of future climate. These tools include susceptibility and risk rating systems, the MPBSim stand-scale MPB population model, the landscape-scale SELES-MPB population model, and graph-based connectivity methods. We made significant advances on all of these, resulting in a suite of tools with increased capabilities and generality. During the course of this project, we also provided decisions support in the specific areas of study, in particular Dawson Creek and central-western Alberta. The basis of the climatic suitability was the work of A. Carroll et al. (2004) which produced estimates of MPB climatic suitability in five classes across western Canada, for historical, existing and future climates. Future climate information was derived from global circulation models such as the CGCM model. They input general climate information into the BioSim tool, in conjunction with topography and other variables relevant to downscaling for MPB, to produce the MPB climatic suitability maps. We used these maps to create an adaptation of the MPB susceptibility and risk rating system that replaced the coarser location factor (based on latitude, longitude and elevation) with MPB climatic suitability. It is important to note that the MPB climatic suitability refers only to climatic conditions relevant for MPB survival and reproduction, while the susceptibility rating system incorporates pine host information. We also modified MPBSim, a stand-scale population model, to utilize the MPB climatic suitability information. In previous applications, MPBSim was adapted to local conditions via a calibration process using local weather information. In some senses, this calibration process resulted in a reasonably precise adjustment to local conditions. However, it was also fairly labour intensive and didn't account as well for spatial variability. Our approach here was to use climatic suitability to both increase spatial precision as well as produce outputs that can be readily adapted to different stand and landscapes. The SELES-MPB landscape-scale population model scales MPBSim dynamics to broad spatial areas. We modified this tool to utilize the revised MPBSim output. This supports more rapid adaptation to other landscapes, as well as allows examination of potential effects of future climate. Our Dawson Creek analysis indicated that beetle management in the Dawson Creek area could significantly affect the spread and impact of the beetle outbreak over the next 10 years, provided that high levels of fell and burn and survey efforts are maintained. Estimated impacts are significantly affected by external pressure from the main outbreak, as estimated using the provincial-scale BCMPB projection. If mountain pine beetle populations can be held low until the main outbreak subsides (which will likely occur within the next five years due to availability of hosts), management should be able to curtail major losses in the Dawson Creek area. In areas with new or no current MPB attack, especially in areas within the expanding range, there is relatively high uncertainty of how the MPB may spread, such as in central-western Alberta. We developed graph-based connectivity methods to assess the spatial pattern of high susceptibility hosts across broad regions, under historic, existing or future climates. This information has been useful to help prioritize and rank stands for treatment in areas of imminent or future risk, and to identify areas for which treatment has no benefit.
Download or read book Historical Frequency Intensity and Extent of Mountain Pine Beetle Disturbance in British Columbia written by René I. Alfaro and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This project used dendrochronology to reconstruct the history of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonous ponderosae Hopkins) outbreaks over the last two centuries and to describe the relationship of outbreaks to varying climate conditions and fire history. The history of mountain pine beetle outbreaks was reconstructed from increment cores and basal disks collected from 85 stands across British Columbia and Alberta. Using aerial survey data, dendrochronological software was calibrated to detect growth releases that could be attributed to beetle outbreaks. Relationships between beetle outbreaks and climate variability were assessed using instrumental weather data, modelled climate data, and historical reconstructions of climate from tree-ring data. Relationships between the occurrence of beetle outbreaks and fire history were undertaken using several approaches in dendrochronology.--Document.
Download or read book A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity Cycle Period and Invasion Speed written by Jacob P. Duncan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae), a tree-killing bark beetle, has historically been part of the normal disturbance regime in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests. In recent years, warm winters and summers have allowed MPB populations to achieve synchronous emergence and successful attacks, resulting in widespread population outbreaks and resultant tree mortality across western North America. We develop an age-structured forest demographic model that incorporates temperature-dependent MPB infestations: the Susceptible-Infested-Juvenile (SIJ) model. Stability of fixed points is analyzed as a function of population growth rates, and indicates the existence of periodic outbreaks that intensify as growth rates increase. We devise analytical methods to predict outbreak severity and duration as well as outbreak return time. To assess the vulnerability of natural resources to climate change, we develop a thermally-driven mechanistic model to predict MPB population growth rates using a distributional model of beetle phenology in conjunction with criteria for successful tree colonization. The model uses projected daily minimum and maximum temperatures for the years 2025 to 2085 generated by three separate global climate models. Growth rates are calculated each year for an area defined by latitude range 42℗ʻ N to 49℗ʻ N and longitude range 108℗ʻ W to 117℗ʻ W on a Cartesian grid of approximately 4km resolution. Using these growth rates, we analyze how the optimal thermal window for beetle development is changing with respect to elevation as a result of climate change induced warming. We also use our combined model to evaluate if thermal regimes exist that would promote life cycle bivoltinism and discuss how yearly growth rates would change as a result. Outbreaks of MPB are largely driven by host tree stand demographics and spatial effects of beetle dispersal. We augment the SIJ model to account for the spatial effects of MPB dispersal throughout a forest landscape by coupling it with a Gaussian redistribution kernel. The new model generates a train of sustained solitary waves of infestation that move through a forest with constant speed. We convert the resulting integrodifference equation into a partial differential equation and search for travelling wave solutions. The resulting differential equation provides predictions of the shape of an outbreak wave profile and of peak infestation as functions of wave speed, which can be calculated analytically. These results culminate in the derivation of an explicit formula for predicting the severity of an outbreak based on the net reproductive rate of MPB and host searching efficiency.
Download or read book Biodiversity in Dead Wood written by Jogeir N. Stokland and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-04-26 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive overview of wood-inhabiting fungi, insects and vertebrates, discussing habitat requirements along with strategies for maintaining biodiversity.
Download or read book Performance of Three Mountain Pine Beetle Damage Models Compared to Actual Outbreak Histories written by Dawn E. Cameron and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Natural Resources. Subcommittee on Water and Power and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Northern Range Limit Mountain Pine Beetle Dendroctonus Ponderosae Outbreak Dynamics and Climate Interactions in Mixed Sub boreal Pine Forests of British Columbia written by Kathryn H. Hrinkevich and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Insect outbreaks are some of the most destructive processes of forest change with long-term economic and ecological effects that can be severe. For native insects that have co-evolved with their host forests it is important to develop and implement management strategies that are consistent with the basic ecology of the ecosystem being affected. This requires a sound ecological understanding of the disturbance regime and its function, which can only be gained through long-term stand histories appropriate to the scale of the process. This is becoming increasingly important in light of changing climate conditions which have already influenced disturbance regimes and the spatial distribution of insect ranges with unknown consequences. The objectives of this study were to develop a long-term record of mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks near the northern limit of the species' range and to examine the interacting factors driving that disturbance regime. Using a combination of dendrochronological methods to reconstruct stand and outbreak history together with long-term local and large-scale climate data, I developed an integrated model of outbreak dynamics for north-central BC where little is known about the role of MPB in forest stand dynamics or the influence of climate on outbreak development. Using a 200-year outbreak reconstruction I determined that host susceptibility and mortality patterns had distinctly different characteristics than those described further south. Climate was more important than forest structure in determining outbreak frequency and severity, and persistent warm temperature anomalies, including the large-scale climate patterns driving these trends, were the most important direct climate drivers of outbreak development. Over short time scales, host stress preceded outbreaks, but long-term periods of vigorous tree growth were also important for outbreaks to develop. Differences between this study and others suggest that outbreak risk management and predictive models must consider regional differences in forest structure, host-climate relationships and climatic pressure on beetle populations. Given that regional host susceptibility criteria are met, low-frequency climate patterns such as PDO and ENSO are probably the most important outbreak drivers across the province. Recent climate changes have already altered the historical regime, and ongoing warming will likely change many of the interactions described here."--Leaves ii-iii
Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle Attack in Ponderosa Pine Comparing Methods for Rating Susceptibility written by David C. Chojnacky and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two empirical methods for rating susceptibility of mountain pine beetle attack in ponderosa pine were evaluated. The methods were compared to stand data modeled to objectively rate each sampled stand for susceptibly to bark-beetle attack. Data on bark-beetle attacks, from a survey of 45 sites throughout the Colorado Plateau, were modeled using logistic regression to estimate the probability of attack on individual trees from tree and stand variables. The logistic model allowed flexibility to easily scale results up to a stand level for comparison to the empirical methods. The empirical method, developed by Munson and Anhold, most closely correlated to the logistic regression results. However, the Munson/Anhold method rated all 45 study sites as either moderately or highly susceptible to bark-beetle attack, which raises concern about its lack of sensitivity. Future work on evaluating risk of bark-beetle impact should consider more than stand characteristics.
Download or read book A Roundheaded Pine Beetle Outbreak in New Mexico written by Robert E. Stevens and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Oversight Hearing Concerning the Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in the Western United States written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of the Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Information Forestry written by and published by . This book was released on 2009-04 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle caused Tree Mortality in Partially Cut Plots Surrounded by Unmanaged Stands written by J. M. Schmid and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Do Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks Change the Probability of Active Crown Fire in Lodgepole Pine Forests written by Martin Simard and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disturbance interactions have received growing interest in ecological research in the last decade. Fire and bark beetle outbreaks have recently increased in severity and extent across western North America, raising concerns about their possible interactions. Although it is often presumed that bark beetle outbreaks increase probability of active crown fire by producing high loads of surface and canopy dead fuels, empirical data are scarce and results are ambivalent. We combined field measurements and modeling to address the following question: How do fuel characteristics, microclimate, and potential fire behavior change with time since a severe mountain pine beetle outbreak in Pinus contorta forests of Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, USA)? We measured surface and canopy fuels, and soil surface temperature in a time-since-beetle-outbreak chronosequence (n = 35 sites) from undisturbed to 36 years post-outbreak, including stands in red- and gray-needle stages (respectively, 1?2 and 3?5 years post-outbreak). Field data were used to parameterize the fire behavior model NEXUS and predict potential fire behavior at each site. Dead surface fuel loads of all size categories did not differ among undisturbed, red, and gray-stage stands. Compared to undisturbed sites, red and gray-stage sites had on average 53% lower canopy bulk density, 42% lower canopy fuel load, and 29% lower canopy moisture content, but had similar canopy base heights (3.1 m). In subsequent decades, coarse wood loads doubled and canopy base height declined to 0 m. Modeling results suggested that undisturbed, red, and gray-stage stands were unlikely to exhibit transition of surface fires to tree crowns (torching), and that the likelihood of sustaining an active crown fire (crowning) decreased from undisturbed to gray-stage stands. Simulated fire behavior was little affected by beetle disturbance when wind speed was either below 40 km/h or above 60 km/h, but at intermediate wind speeds, probability of crowning in red- and gray-stage stands was lower than in undisturbed stands, and old post-outbreak stands were predicted to have passive crown fires. Results were consistent across a range of fuel moisture scenarios. Our results suggest that mountain pine beetle outbreaks in Greater Yellowstone may reduce the probability of active crown fire in the short term by thinning lodgepole pine canopies.
Download or read book Performance of Three Mountain Pine Beetle Damage Models Compared to Actual Outbreak Histories Classic Reprint written by Dawn E. Cameron and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2018-03-18 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Performance of Three Mountain Pine Beetle Damage Models Compared to Actual Outbreak Histories Forest inventory data were obtained from the Northern Region, Forest Service, us. Department of Agriculture. Actual mortality caused by mpb was computed and then compared to the mortality predicted by each mpb model. Within the Northern Region, 58 stands with inventory data were located from various forests and research studies (table Data used in our study came from four sources. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Download or read book Preliminary Risk Rating for Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation of Lodgepole Pine Forests Over Large Areas with Ordinal Regression Modelling written by Colin Robertson and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In western Canada, the operational risk rating system for mountain pine beetle is based on biological knowledge gained from a rich legacy of stand-scale field studies. Owing to the large spatial and temporal extents of the current epidemic, new research into large-area mountain pine beetle processes has revealed further insights into the landscape-scale characteristics of beetle infested forests. This research evaluates the potential for this new knowledge to augment an established system for rating the short-term risk of tree mortality in a stand due to mountain pine beetle.--Publisher's website.
Download or read book Bark Beetle fire forest Interactions in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem written by Martin Simard and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
