Download or read book Uses of Monte Carlo in PERT written by Richard Van Slyke and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monte Carlo Simulations Applied to Pert written by Satyajit Singh Chadha and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Study of PERT by Monte Carlo Simulation written by Roger H. Dreher and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods and the PERT Problem written by University of California, Berkeley. Operations Research Center and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to try to charac terize the qualitative aspectsdividual networks which indicate whether the reduction of a stochastic longest path problem to a de terministic one is adequate and to some extent, to estimate the magnitude of the errors involved. (Author).

Download or read book Monte Carlo Techniques for Stochastic PERT Network Analysis written by John M. Burt and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monte Carlo Techniques Applied to Pert Networks written by Lawrence Lee McGowan and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: PERT is an analytical procedure used by management to plan, coordinate and control work projects. PERT has only recently been formalized into a usable system. One of the more important features of PERT is its general applicability for almost all projects. It provides management important decision making information such as expected completion time, a list of possible bottlenecks and where they will occur, and a method of allocating manpower to achieve the best results. PERT can also be adapted easily to computer applications. This thesis will investigate two areas where present procedures are suspected to produce incorrect results. It will first simulate the conditions that would exist if the project were actually accomplished. By comparing two hundred such simulations with the usually derived PERT solution, it will be possible to see what bias exists in the present system. A source of this bias will be investigated in detail to determine just how accurate the PERT solution is and what steps can be taken to improve its results. A second investigation will be undertaken to discover possible effects on the solution through the use of the approximate PERT solution formulas.

Download or read book The Project Management Question and Answer Book written by Michael W. Newell and published by Amacom Books. This book was released on 2004 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is a project charter? How about a work breakdown structure? Do you know the basic steps behind risk quantification? And why is it important to be acquainted with Goldratt's critical chain theory? The Project Management Question and Answer Book is a one-stop reference that both beginning and experienced project managers will use in countless on-the-job situations. Providing the answers to critical questions, from the simplest to the most advanced, the book is arranged to get you the information you need the moment you need it. You'll find helpful explanations of crucial project management issues, including: * Why PM is useful to you and your organization * How to interact with project stakeholders to maximize productivity * How to establish realistic cost, schedule, and scope baselines * What management techniques can be used to motivate teams * What methods you can use for evaluating project team performance Packed with case studies and examples, The Project Management Question and Answer Book is an indispensable guide covering everything from estimates, quality control, and communications, to time-, risk-, and human resource management. It is a practical, constantly usable resource for understanding fundamental project management issues and implementing workable solutions.

Download or read book Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method written by Reuven Y. Rubinstein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-10-21 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation that have arisen over the past 30 years and presents a sound foundation for problem solving Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the state-of-the-art theory, methods and applications that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over more than a quarter of a century ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo, variance reduction techniques such as importance (re-)sampling, and the transform likelihood ratio method, the score function method for sensitivity analysis, the stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization, the cross-entropy method for rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization, and application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems. An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, as well as a generous sampling of applied examples. The Third Edition features a new chapter on the highly versatile splitting method, with applications to rare-event estimation, counting, sampling, and optimization. A second new chapter introduces the stochastic enumeration method, which is a new fast sequential Monte Carlo method for tree search. In addition, the Third Edition features new material on: • Random number generation, including multiple-recursive generators and the Mersenne Twister • Simulation of Gaussian processes, Brownian motion, and diffusion processes • Multilevel Monte Carlo method • New enhancements of the cross-entropy (CE) method, including the “improved” CE method, which uses sampling from the zero-variance distribution to find the optimal importance sampling parameters • Over 100 algorithms in modern pseudo code with flow control • Over 25 new exercises Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in stochastic simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method. Reuven Y. Rubinstein, DSc, was Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management at Technion-Israel Institute of Technology. He served as a consultant at numerous large-scale organizations, such as IBM, Motorola, and NEC. The author of over 100 articles and six books, Dr. Rubinstein was also the inventor of the popular score-function method in simulation analysis and generic cross-entropy methods for combinatorial optimization and counting. Dirk P. Kroese, PhD, is a Professor of Mathematics and Statistics in the School of Mathematics and Physics of The University of Queensland, Australia. He has published over 100 articles and four books in a wide range of areas in applied probability and statistics, including Monte Carlo methods, cross-entropy, randomized algorithms, tele-traffic c theory, reliability, computational statistics, applied probability, and stochastic modeling.

Download or read book Practical Schedule Risk Analysis written by David Hulett and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-08 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project scheduling is required for good project management, and the schedule represents the project plan under a specific set of assumptions, often that it will avoid new risks or even those that have occurred on previous occasions. The typical Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule assumes that the project team knows how long the scheduled activities will take. Yet, the experienced project manager knows that duration values so precisely stated are actually only estimates based on assumptions that could be wrong. A schedule risk analysis explores the implications for the project's schedule of risk to the activity durations and also identifies the most important schedule risks. This analysis, building on and extending CPM scheduling, will result in a more accurate estimate of completion and provide an early opportunity for planning effective risk mitigation actions. Practical Schedule Risk Analysis contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to advanced concepts. The methods are introduced at the simplest level: * Why is the duration uncertain? * And how do we represent this uncertainty with a probability distribution? These are then progressively elaborated: * How does uncertainty of activities along a path lead to more uncertainty of the path's completion date? * How can a schedule with parallel paths be riskier than each of the paths individually? * How can we represent risks about activities that are not in the schedule at all? Culminating in a discussion of the most powerful and advanced capabilities available in current commercial software. Schedule risk analysis is a process that is industry-independent, and the methods explained in this volume have been used by the author with positive effect in such industries as construction, oil and gas, information systems, environmental restoration and aerospace/defense. The result is a book that is not only highly practical; something that people within all types of projects and in all industries can apply themselves; but that is an extraordinarily complete guide to creating and managing a rigorous project schedule.

Download or read book Managing Projects With PMBOK 7 written by James Marion and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2022-08-26 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a simple explanatory guide for the layman that clarifies the ‘big picture’ of the PMBOK. The Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), published by the Project Management Institute, provides a roadmap of performance domains designed to support project managers in all phases of project management. The sheer number of models, methods, and artifacts may leave project managers in a quandary about where to start and how to apply the many components. This book provides a simple explanatory guide for the layman that clarifies the ‘big picture’ of the PMBOK.

Download or read book Cost Estimator s Reference Manual written by Rodney D. Stewart and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1995-04-03 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today's hypercompetitive global marketplace, accurate costestimating is crucial to bottom-line results. Nowhere is this moreevident than in the design and development of new products andservices. Among managing engineers responsible for developingrealistic cost estimates for new product designs, the number-onesource of information and guidance has been the Cost Estimator'sReference Manual. Comprehensive, authoritative, and practical, the Manual instructsreaders in the full range of cost estimating techniques andprocedures currently used in the fields of development, testing,manufacturing, production, construction, software, generalservices, government contracting, engineering services, scientificprojects, and proposal preparation. The authors clearly explain howto go about gathering the data essential to preparing a realisticestimate of costs and guide the reader step by step through eachprocedure. This new Second Edition incorporates a decade of progress in themethods, procedures, and strategies of cost estimating. All thematerial has been updated and five new chapters have been added toreflect the most recent information on such increasingly importanttopics as activity-based costing, software estimating,design-to-cost techniques, and cost implications of new concurrentengineering and systems engineering approaches to projects. Indispensable to virtually anyone whose work requires accurate costestimates, the Cost Estimator's Reference Manual will be especiallyvaluable to engineers, estimators, accountants, and contractors ofproducts, projects, processes, and services to both government andindustry. The essential ready-reference for the techniques, methods, andprocedures of cost estimating COST ESTIMATOR'S REFERENCE MANUAL Second Edition Indispensable for anyone who depends on accurate cost estimates forengineering projects, the Cost Estimator's Reference Manual guidesthe user through both the basic and more sophisticated aspects ofthe estimating process. Authoritative and comprehensive, the Manualseamlessly integrates the many functions--accounting, financial,statistical, and management--of modern cost estimating practice.Its broad coverage includes estimating procedures applied to suchareas as: * Production * Software * Development * General services * Testing * Government contracting * Manufacturing * Engineering * Proposal preparation * Scientific projects * Construction This updated and expanded Second Edition incorporates all the mostimportant recent developments in cost estimating, such asactivity-based costing, software estimating, design-to-costtechniques, computer-aided estimating tools, concurrentengineering, and life cycle costing. For engineers, estimators, accountants, planners, and others whoare involved in the cost aspects of projects, the Cost Estimator'sReference Manual is an invaluable information source that will payfor itself many times over.

Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Practical Monte Carlo Simulation with Excel Part 2 of 2 written by Akram Najjar and published by Gatekeeper Press. This book was released on 2018-04-18 with total page 768 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a fair number of stand alone applications as well as add on’s to Microsoft Excel in the market to be used to run Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) models. However, out of the box, Excel has all the functions you need to develop such models. What is needed are robust modeling procedures, techniques and analytic formulations. Initially, I started with one book. This grew out of proportion as more and more applications and models were identified. Some of these had not been modeled with MCS before. I had to break the book into two parts. Part 1 presents the basics of modeling always providing methods and typical models as applications of simulation. Part 1 also spends time on clarifying different ways of analyzing the simulation output using a variety of statistical functions and procedures all found within Excel. The eBook clarifies a variety of Excel facilities needed in different parts of simulation: sensitivity analysis, linear regression and the Analysis Toolpack. Finally, Part 1 presents a few standard modeling techniques that can be used in a variety of models, specifically in Part 2. Part 2 concentrates on applications such as project management, acceptance sampling, sales and budget forecasting, queuing models, reliability engineering and more. Since these operations behave according to specific statistical distributions, time is spent on clarifying a variety of these functions. When one or two are not available in Excel, alternative methods of computation are presented. A special chapter addresses Markov Processes and shows how simulation can be coupled to such an analysis. The uses and applications of statistical distributions in these operations are addressed in depth. Having covered Uniform, Normal and Discrete Distributions in Part 1, Part 2 proceeds to present and give applications for the following distributions: binomial, negative binomial, geometric, hypergeometric, triangular (not commonly used but is the basis as to why betaPERT is preferred), Poisson, exponential, Gamma and Weibull. No programming is required although in one single case, an embedded VBA module is included. It is used to formulate a method that allows the analyst to develop a two level simulation. To get the results of each of the primary runs in the model, the model runs a further “sub-simulation”. No VBA competence is required. The two eBooks come with 21 and 54 step by step models, respectively, and with supporting images. Whenever statistical functions are used, they are fully clarified using a common sense and non-theoretical approach. All the workouts are solved and are available for download from this page.

Download or read book Human Factors Engineering Bibliographic Series written by and published by . This book was released on 1960 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monte Carlo techniques applied to PERT networks written by Maria Concetta Faló di Gaspare and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Risk Analysis written by David Vose and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-28 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.

Download or read book Readings in Managerial Economics written by I. B. Ibrahim and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Readings in Managerial Economics is a five-part book that deals with the major subject areas of decision making; forecasting and demand analysis; production and cost; pricing and market structure; and capital budgeting and profit. This book combines a number of diverse articles, selected from recent issues of over fifty leading professional publication. Some of the articles deal principally with theory, some with applications, and some with both. This book will be useful for students and executives interested in this subject matter.