Download or read book Use of Climatology to Predict Maximum Wintertime Wind Speeds at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station written by Lisa K. Coleman and published by . This book was released on 2000-03-01 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis uses statistical analysis to forecast the probability of meeting or exceeding the maximum allowable wind speeds for each of the launch pads at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). Wind data were collected from the Weather Information Network Display System (WINDS), a collection of 47 meteorological towers located throughout KSC and CCAS, over a period of five winters. A Fortran program was written to calculate conditional probabilities of meeting or exceeding a given threshold speed during eight consecutive one-hour periods, using the current wind direction and peak wind speed as inputs. Forecast probabilities were displayed in a table according to time period and wind direction. Accuracy was measured by constructing contingency tables and calculating various measures of accuracy. Results were tested for significance by calculating p-values for the chi-square test. This method was found to have very little skill in forecasting maximum wind speeds. It is not recommended for operational use.
Download or read book A Neural Network Solution to Predicting Wind Speed at Cape Canaveral s Atlas Launch Pad written by Kenneth P. Cloys and published by . This book was released on 2000-03-01 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis demonstrates the potential for using time-delay neural networks to provide Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) at 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) with advance warning of wintertime (November-March) peak wind speeds at the Atlas launch pad. The 45 WS provides weather support to the United States space program at Cape Canaveral Air Station, NASA's Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick Air Force Base. Due to the complex wintertime environment produced by the effects of friction and instability, 45 WS LWOs consider wintertime launch pad winds their toughest forecast challenge. Neural networks were developed, trained, and tested using observations of wintertime peak wind speed, wind direction, and directional deviation collected from March 1995 through March 1999 by 45th Space Wing's Weather Inforrnation Network Display System. Using current and past values of the observed elements, the networks produced 16 forecasts of peak wind speed. The first forecast was valid for 30 minutes past forecast start time, the second for 1 hour past start time, etc., up to 8 hours past start time, for any start time. Network performance was compared to three other forecasting options: persistence, climatology, and randomly selecting wind speeds from a climatologically based distribution. For forecasts at the end of the forecast period, networks that were tested with data near in time to the networks' training data showed skill over the other forecasting options. A new confidence measure for neural network forecasts based on mean absolute error was also developed. Confidence for shorter forecast times was not necessarily higher than for longer forecast times. The results of this thesis provide a baseline for measuring future attempts at forecast improvements and establish the neural network approach as a potential means of enhancing peak wind speed prediction accuracy, especially for forecasts late in the forecast period.
Download or read book Conference on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 690 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Guide for Applied Climatology written by United States. Air Weather Service and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Estimated Glaze Ice and Wind Loads at the Earth s Surface for the Contiguous United States written by Paul Tattelman and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: MIL-STD-210A, 'Climatic Extremes for Military Equipment', is being revised. The revision will include two sets of windspeed design goals for military equipment being developed for worldwide usage over land: (1) the speed up to which 'operations' are expected to proceed, (2) the speed that equipment should 'withstand' without irreversible damage. A study of gustiness and variations of wind with height during strong wind regimes is presented. Nomograms of gust factor versus gust duration and steady windspeed are used to assign the most dynamically effective gust according to equipment dimensions. Based on a power-law relationship, factors for adjusting windspeed to a common height to describe windspeed and gusts over the vertical extent of military equipment usage are presented. Also included is a tabulation of wind statistics for selected stations considered in the search for worldwide wind extremes.
Download or read book The U S Weather Bureau Sandia Corporation Co operative Project in Climatology written by B. N. Charles and published by . This book was released on 1957 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a final report on computations of upper-wind statistics conducted as a co-operative effort of the U.S. Weather Bureau Office of Climatology and Sandia Corporation Department 5120. It describes the statistical parameters computed from the basic data, which consisted of each daily 1500Z wind during a 5-year period at 13 pressure levels (from 950 to 30 mb) at 51 (mostly North American) stations.
Download or read book A Diffusion Climatology for Cape Canaveral Florida written by Richard K. Siler and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book International Aerospace Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate Diagnostics Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 1983-08 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Selective Guide to Published Climatic Data Sources written by United States. Weather Bureau and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Download or read book Wartime Developments in Applied Climatology written by Woodrow Cooper Jacobs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-02 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction.-Types of weather problems in staff planning.-Climatological techniques for military problems with reference to civilian application.-Climatology for forecasters.-The accumulating, processing, and filing of basic climatological data.-Bases for a "synoptic" or "synchronous" climatology.-Problems associated with the presentation of climatic information.- Conclusions.
Download or read book Climatology at Work written by National Weather Records Center (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1960 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-29 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.
Download or read book A Climatology of the Sea Breeze at Cape Canaveral Florida written by Jeffrey D. Cetola and published by . This book was released on 1997-08-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A climatology of the Cape Canaveral, Florida sea breeze has been established using data from the warm seasons of 1995 and 1996. Data from the Cape Canaveral mesoscale tower network were used to locate the sea breeze, determine its inland penetration, and assess its time of passage. Visible satellite imagery centered over Melbourne, Florida also were used for this purpose. Radiosonde data were used to determine the large-scale flow over the region. A total of 357 days was analyzed. These days were classified as sea- breeze days, non-sea-breeze days, or undetermined. Undetermined days (40) were removed from the final sample, leaving a total of 317 days. River breezes and other local circulations were analyzed and related to the sea breeze, and the presence of convection was related to sea-breeze occurrence and large-scale flow.
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Download or read book The State Climatologist written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
