Download or read book Unemployment Fluctuations Match Quality and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires written by Mark Gertler and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic models often incorporate some form of wage stickiness to help account for employment fluctuations. However, a recent literature calls in to question this approach, citing evidence of new hire wage cyclicality from panel data studies as evidence for contractual wage flexibility for new hires, which is the relevant margin for employment volatility. We analyze data from the SIPP and find that the wages for new hires coming from unemployment are no more cyclical than those of existing workers, suggesting wages are sticky at the relevant margin. The new hire wage cyclicality found in earlier studies instead appears to reflect cyclical average wage gains of workers making job-to-job transitions, which we interpret as evidence of procyclical match quality for new hires from employment. We then develop a quantitative general equilibrium model with sticky wages via staggered contracting, on-the-job search, and variable match quality, and show that it can account for both the panel data evidence and aggregate labor market regularities. An additional implication of the model is that a sullying effect of recessions emerges, along the lines originally suggested by Barlevy (2002).

Download or read book Heterogeneous Wage Cyclicality and Unemployment Fluctuations written by Andrei Zaloilo and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Firms hire workers from different pools. Some firms hire more unemployed workers than others, making their demand for labor more important for unemployment. I differentiate jobs based on their hiring pool and estimate their wage cyclicality. The key finding is that wages in jobs hiring from unemployment are half as cyclical as wages in other jobs, for both incumbent workers and new hires. To measure the effects of this on unemployment volatility, I develop a labor search model with separation of search and heterogeneous wage rigidity and show that accounting for this heterogeneity increases the volatility of unemployment by 14%-34%.

Download or read book The Quality adjusted Cyclical Price of Labor written by Mark Bils and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Typical measures of wages, such as average hourly earnings, fail to capture cyclicality in the effective cost of labor in the presence of (i) cyclical fluctuations in the quality of worker-firm matches, or (ii) wages being smoothed within employment matches. To address both concerns, we estimate cyclicality in labor's user cost exploiting the long-run wage in a match to control for match quality. Using NLSY data for 1980 to 2019, we identify three channels by which hiring in a recession affects user cost: It lowers the new-hire wage; it lowers wages going forward in the match; but it also results in higher subsequent separations. All totaled, we find that labor's user cost is highly procyclical, increasing by more than 4% for a 1 pp decline in the unemployment rate. For large recessions, like the Great Recession, that implies a decline in the price of labor of about 15%.

Download or read book Financial Disruptions and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor written by Brendan Epstein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-15 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amid total factor productivity (TFP) shocks job-to-job flows amplify the volatility of unemployment, but the aggregate implications of job-to-job flows amid financial shocks are less understood. To develop such understanding we model a general equilibrium labor-search framework that incorporates on-the-job (OTJ) search and distinctly accounts for the differential impact of TFP and financial shocks. Surprisingly, we find that the interaction of OTJ search with financial shocks is sufficiently different from its interaction with TFP shocks so that, under standard calibrations, our model generates aggregate dynamics exceedingly in line with the behavior of key U.S. macro data across several decades and in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis as well. Importantly, as in the data, the model yields relatively high volatilities of consumption, labor income, and unemployment. As such, our work contributes to resolving two limitations of current general equilibrium labor-search theory: under standard calibrations models without OTJ search generate implausibly low unemployment volatility, while models with OTJ search generate unemployment volatility closer to the data but at the expense of implausibly low consumption and labor-income volatility.

Download or read book Measuring what Employers Really Do about Entry Wages Over the Business Cycle written by Pedro Silva Martins and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In models recently published by several influential macroeconomic theorists, rigidity in the real wages that firms pay newly hired workers plays a crucial role in generating realistically large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment. There is remarkably little evidence, however, on whether employers' hiring wages really are invariant to business cycle conditions. We review the small empirical literature and show that the methods used thus far are poorly suited for identifying employers' wage practices. We propose a simpler and more relevant approach -- use matched employer/employee longitudinal data to identify entry jobs and then directly track the cyclical variation in the real wages paid to workers newly hired into those jobs. We illustrate the methodology by applying it to data from an annual census of employers in Portugal over the period 1982-2007. We find that real entry wages in Portugal over this period tend to be about 1.8 percent higher when the unemployment rate is one percentage point lower. Like most recent evidence on other aspects of wage cyclicality, our results suggest that the cyclical elasticity of wages is similar to that of employment.

Download or read book The Distributional Impacts of Worker Reallocation Evidence from Europe written by Mr. John C Bluedorn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-24 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using individual-level data for 30 European countries between 1983 and 2019, we document the extent and earning consequences of workers’ reallocation across occupations and industries and how these outcomes vary with individual-level characteristics, namely (i) education, (ii) gender, and (iii) age. We find that while young workers are more likely to experience earnings gains with on-the-job sectoral and occupational switches, low-skilled workers’ employment transitions are associated with an earnings loss. These differences in earnings gains and losses also mask a high degree of heterogeneity related to trends in routinization. We find that workers, particularly low-skilled and older workers during recessions, experience a severe earning penalty when switching occupations from non-routine to routine occupations.

Download or read book Labor Markets and Business Cycles written by Robert Shimer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.

Download or read book Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires written by Jonathon Hazell and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wage rigidity is an important explanation for unemployment fluctuations. In benchmark models wages for new hires are key, but there is limited evidence on this margin. We use wages posted on vacancies, with job and establishment information, to measure the wage for new hires. We show that our measure of the wage for new hires is rigid downward and flexible upward, in two steps. First, wages change infrequently at the job level, and fall especially rarely. Second, wages do not respond to rises in unemployment, but respond strongly to falls in unemployment. Job information is crucial for detecting downward rigidity.

Download or read book Heterogeneity and cyclical unemployment written by Mark Bils and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We model worker heterogeneity in the rents from being employed in a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model of matching and unemployment. We show that heterogeneity, reflecting differences in match quality and worker assets, reduces the extent of fluctuations in separations and unemployment. We find that the model faces a trade-off--it cannot produce both realistic dispersion in wage growth across workers and realistic cyclical fluctuations in unemployment.

Download or read book New Evidence on Real Wage Cyclicality Within Employer employee Matches written by Donggyun Shin and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the most thorough study to date on wage cyclicality among job stayers, Devereux's (2001) analysis of men in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics produced two puzzling findings: (1) the real wages of salaried workers are noncyclical, and (2) wage cyclicality among hourly workers differs between two alternative wage measures. We examine these puzzles with additional evidence from other sources. Devereux's finding of noncyclical real wages among salaried job stayers is not replicated in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. The NLSY data, however, do corroborate his finding of a discrepancy for hourly workers between the cyclicality of the two alternative wage measures. Evidence from the PSID Validation Study contradicts Devereux's conjecture that the discrepancy might be due to a procyclical bias from measurement error in average hourly earnings. Evidence from the Bureau of Labor Statistics establishment survey supports his hypothesis that overtime work accounts for part (but not all) of the discrepancy. We conclude that job stayers' real average hourly earnings are substantially procyclical and that an important portion of that procyclicality probably is due to compensation beyond base wages.

Download or read book Essays on Labor Market Frictions and Worker Productivity written by David Wonyoung Jang and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation examines how labor market adjustment happens in times of economic downturns or policy changes. Chapter 1 analyzes how the contribution of intensive margin adjustments to the cyclical fluctuations in total hours worked has increased in the US since the 1980s. I document that the job tenure length has increased during this period and labor hours adjustments in recessions are more prominent in economies with higher job tenure lengths. I build a search-and-matching model with part-time workers and job-specific human capital accumulation. With the model, I claim that the improvement in initial match quality can account for the increased use of intensive margin adjustments along the business cycle. A policy simulation shows that subsidizing intensive margin adjustments via Short-time compensation (STC) policy is more effective in reducing unemployment volatility when the initial match productivities are higher and job separations are lower. Chapter 1 explored the impact of job-specific human capital on intensive margin adjustments, while Chapter 2 examines the role of ex-ante worker heterogeneity. Chapter 2 finds that the pool of IPT workers increasingly consists of high-wage workers who are more attached to the labor market during recessions. According to the microdata from the Current Population Survey, this cyclical change is driven by the inflows into the IPT pool, especially the full-time to IPT flow. The demographic compositional changes of the IPT pool in recessions suggest a new channel through which the intensive margin adjustments can affect aggregate unemployment fluctuations by driving up firms' hiring standards during economic downturns. Chapter 3 focuses on a natural experiment in Oregon and Florida that changed the enforceability of non-compete agreements (NCA) between firms and workers. Using the experiment, I find that banning NCA can have a negative consequence on low-wage workers and an unintentional distributional impact. The unemployment duration increases after the ban which exacerbates the loss of general human capital of unemployed workers. I propose the crowding out effect of unemployed workers due to the ban can cause what I observe in the data and the potential cost of banning NCA for workers. Together, these chapters provide insights into different aspects of labor market dynamics, highlighting the importance of initial match quality, worker heterogeneity, and policy implications for labor market institutions

Download or read book Open Economy Macroeconomics written by Martín Uribe and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-04-04 with total page 648 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A cutting-edge graduate-level textbook on the macroeconomics of international trade Combining theoretical models and data in ways unimaginable just a few years ago, open economy macroeconomics has experienced enormous growth over the past several decades. This rigorous and self-contained textbook brings graduate students, scholars, and policymakers to the research frontier and provides the tools and context necessary for new research and policy proposals. Martín Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé factor in the discipline's latest developments, including major theoretical advances in incorporating financial and nominal frictions into microfounded dynamic models of the open economy, the availability of macro- and microdata for emerging and developed countries, and a revolution in the tools available to simulate and estimate dynamic stochastic models. The authors begin with a canonical general equilibrium model of an open economy and then build levels of complexity through the coverage of important topics such as international business-cycle analysis, financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises, sovereign default, pecuniary externalities, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and the role of nominal rigidities in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy. Based on courses taught at several universities, Open Economy Macroeconomics is an essential resource for students, researchers, and practitioners. Detailed exploration of international business-cycle analysis Coverage of financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises Extensive investigation of nominal rigidities and their role in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy Other topics include fixed exchange-rate regimes, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and sovereign default and debt sustainability Chapters include exercises and replication codes

Download or read book Comparative Advantage in Cyclical Unemployment written by Mark Bils and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We introduce worker differences in labor supply, reflecting differences in skills and assets, into a model of separations, matching, and unemployment over the business cycle. Separating from employment when unemployment duration is long is particularly costly for workers with high labor supply. This provides a rich set of testable predictions across workers: those with higher labor supply, say due to lower assets, should display more procyclical wages and less countercyclical separations. Consequently, the model predicts that the pool of unemployed will sort toward workers with lower labor supply in a downturn. Because these workers generate lower rents to employers, this discourages vacancy creation and exacerbates the cyclicality of unemployment and unemployment durations. We examine wage cyclicality and employment separations over the past twenty years for workers in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Wages are much more procyclical for workers who work more. This pattern is mirrored in separations; separations from employment are much less cyclical for those who work more. We do see for recessions a strong compositional shift among those unemployed toward workers who typically work less.

Download or read book Wage Rigidity and Job Creation written by Christian Haefke and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent research in macroeconomics emphasizes the role of wage rigidity in accounting for the volatility of unemployment fluctuations. We use worker-level data from the CPS to measure the sensitivity of wages of newly hired workers to changes in aggregate labor market conditions. The wage of new hires, unlike the aggregate wage, is volatile and responds almost one-to-one to changes in labor productivity. We conclude that there is little evidence for wage stickiness in the data. We also show, however, that a little wage rigidity goes a long way in amplifying the response of job creation to productivity shocks.

Download or read book Wage Rigidity and Unemployment written by Wilfred Beckerman and published by Bloomsbury Academic. This book was released on 1986 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Cyclicality of Effective Wages Within Employer employee Matches in a Rigid Labor Market written by Silke Anger and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining written by Mark Gertler and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of authors have recently emphasized that the conventional model of unemployment dynamics due to Mortensen and Pissarides has difficulty accounting for the relatively volatile behavior of labor market activity over the business cycle. We address this issue by modifying the MP framework to allow for staggered multiperiod wage contracting. What emerges is a tractable relation for wage dynamics that is a natural generalization of the period-by-period Nash bargaining outcome in the conventional formulation. An interesting side-product is the emergence of spillover effects of average wages on the bargaining process. We then show that a reasonable calibration of the model can account well for the cyclical behavior of wages and labor market activity observed in the data. The spillover effects turn out to be important in this respect.