Download or read book Understanding the Relationship Between VIX and the S P 500 Index Volatility written by Irena Vodenska and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the VIX Index, often referred to as “the investor's fear gauge,” relative to the observed volatility of the S&P 500 Index to investigate the relationship between these two measures of financial markets variability and to understand the directionality of their influence on one another. Calculated as a weighted average of put and call options on the S&P 500 Index, the VIX is considered as a forecasting indicator of the S&P 500 Index's volatility over a one-month period. We examine the daily VIX and S&P 500 Index volatility data for the 20-year period between 1990 and 2009 and find that VIX lags the S&P 500 one-month volatility for the period that we study. Furthermore, we analyze the VIX Index and the S&P 500 volatility for different time periods, when the financial markets exhibit: (i) higher level of stability with volatility below two standard deviations from the mean and (ii) lower stability regimes, with volatilities above two standard deviations from the mean. We find that in general, the VIX overestimates the S&P 500 Index volatility during the stable financial market regimes, and underestimates the S&P 500 Index volatility throughout high volatility periods.
Download or read book The Causal Relationship between the S P 500 and the VIX Index written by Florian Auinger and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-13 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Florian Auinger highlights the core weaknesses and sources of criticism regarding the VIX Index as an indicator for the future development of financial market volatility. Furthermore, it is proven that there is no statistically significant causal relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500. As a consequence, the forecastability is not given in both directions. Obviously, there must be at least one additional variable that has a strong influence on market volatility such as emotions which, according to financial market experts, are considered to play a more and more important role in investment decisions.
Download or read book The VIX Index and Volatility Based Global Indexes and Trading Instruments A Guide to Investment and Trading Features written by Matthew T. Moran and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2020-04-28 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past two decades, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX® Index), a key measure of investor sentiment and 30-day future volatility expectations, has generated much investor attention because of its unique and powerful features. The introduction of VIX futures in 2004, VIX options in 2006, and other volatility-related trading instruments provided traders and investors access to exchange-traded vehicles for taking long and short exposures to expected S&P 500 Index volatility for a particular time frame. Certain VIX-related tradable products may provide benefits when used as tools for tail-risk hedging, diversification, risk management, or alpha generation. Gauges of expected stock market volatility for various regions include the VIX Index (United States), AXVI Index (Australia), VHSI Index (Hong Kong), NVIX Index (India) and VSTOXX Index (Europe). All five of these volatility indexes had negative correlations with their related stock indexes price movements, and all five volatility indexes rose more than 50% in 2008. Although the five volatility indexes are not investable, investors can explore VIX-based benchmark indexes that show the performance of hypothetical investment strategies using VIX futures or options. Before investing in volatility-related products, investors should closely study the pricing, roll cost, and volatility features of the tradable products and read the applicable prospectuses and risk disclosure statements.
Download or read book Trading VIX Derivatives written by Russell Rhoads and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-11 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to using the VIX to forecast and trade markets Known as the fear index, the VIX provides a snapshot ofexpectations about future stock market volatility and generallymoves inversely to the overall stock market. Trading VIXDerivatives will show you how to use the Chicago Board OptionsExchange's S&P 500 volatility index to gauge fear and greed inthe market, use market volatility to your advantage, and hedgestock portfolios. Engaging and informative, this book skillfullyexplains the mechanics and strategies associated with trading VIXoptions, futures, exchange traded notes, and options on exchangetraded notes. Many market participants look at the VIX to help understandmarket sentiment and predict turning points. With a slew of VIXindex trading products now available, traders can use a variety ofstrategies to speculate outright on the direction of marketvolatility, but they can also utilize these products in conjunctionwith other instruments to create spread trades or hedge theiroverall risk. Reviews how to use the VIX to forecast market turning points,as well as reveals what it takes to implement trading strategiesusing VIX options, futures, and ETNs Accessible to active individual traders, but sufficientlysophisticated for professional traders Offers insights on how volatility-based strategies can be usedto provide diversification and enhance returns Written by Russell Rhoads, a top instructor at the CBOE'sOptions Institute, this book reflects on the wide range of usesassociated with the VIX and will interest anyone looking forprofitable new forecasting and trading techniques.
Download or read book Time Varying Relationship of News Sentiment Implied Volatility and Stock Returns written by Lee A. Smales and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I examine the relationship between aggregate news sentiment, S&P 500 Index returns, and changes in the implied volatility index (VIX). I find a significant negative contemporaneous relationship between changes in VIX and both news sentiment and stock returns. This relationship is asymmetric whereby changes in VIX are larger following negative news and/or stock market declines. VAR analysis of the dynamics and cross-dependencies between variables reveals a strong positive relationship between previous and current period changes in implied volatility and stock returns, while current period and lagged news sentiment has a significant positive (negative) relationship with stock returns (changes in VIX). I develop a simple trading strategy whereby high (low) levels of implied volatility signal attractive opportunities to take long (short) positions in the underlying index, while extremely negative (positive) news sentiment signals opportunities to enter short (long) index positions.
Download or read book Analysis of VIX Markets with a Time Spread Portfolio written by Andrew Papanicolaou and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article explores the relationship between option markets for the S&P500 (SPX) and CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX). Results are obtained by using the so-called time-spread portfolio to replicate a future contract on the squared VIX. The time-spread portfolio is interesting because it provides a model-free link between derivative prices for SPX and VIX. Time spreads can be computed from SPX put options with different maturities, which results in a term structure for squared volatility. This term structure can be compared to the VIX-squared term structure that is backed-out from VIX call options. The time-spread portfolio is also used to measure volatility-of-volatility (vol-of-vol) and the volatility leverage effect. There may emerge small differences in these measurements, depending on whether time spreads are computed with options on SPX or options on VIX. A study of 2012 daily options data shows that vol-of-vol estimates utilizing SPX data will reflect the volatility leverage effect, whereas estimates that exclusively utilize VIX options will predominantly reflect the premia in the VIX-future term structure.
Download or read book The Relationship Between VIX Futures Term Structure and S P500 Returns written by Athanasios Fassas and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current paper tests and documents the relationship between the term structure of VIX futures and the underlying equity returns. Furthermore, it investigates the signaling effects of VIX futures term structure in respect to future stock index movements. The objective of this empirical analysis is to verify if a steep upward-sloping term structure indicates a late phase of a bullish trend and conversely if an extreme negative term structure suggests an over-sold market, as certain market participants believe.The empirical findings of this study suggest that there is a strong statistical significant positive contemporaneous relationship between the changes in the VIX futures term structure and the returns of the underlying equity index. Finally, the econometric analysis lends some support to the hypothesis that the term structure of VIX futures can be used as a contrarian indicator for investing in the equity market.
Download or read book On the Intraday Relation Between the VIX and Its Futures written by Bart Frijns and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) introduced the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) in 1993. The index has come to act as the benchmark for stock market volatility and, more generally, investor sentiment. The VIX has proven to be very useful in forecasting the future market direction especially during high volatility periods. In order to expedite trading in volatility, as well as increase hedging opportunities, the CBOE introduced futures on the VIX (henceforth referred to as VXF) on March 26, 2004.We study the intraday dynamics of the VIX and VXF for the period January 2, 2008 to December 31, 2012. Applying a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model on daily data, we observe some evidence of causality from the VXF to the VIX. However, estimating a VAR using our ultra-high frequency data, we find strong evidence for bi-directional Granger causality between the VIX and the VXF. Overall, this effect appears to be stronger from the VXF to the VIX than the other way around. Impulse response functions and variance decompositions analysis further confirm the dominance of the VXF. Lastly, we show that the causality from the VXF to the VIX has been increasing over our sample period, whereas the reverse causality has been decreasing. This finding suggests that the VIX futures have become increasingly more important in the pricing of volatility. We further document that the VIX futures dominate the VIX more on days with negative returns, and on days with high values of the VIX, suggesting that on those days investors use VIX futures to hedge their positions rather than trading in the S&P 500 index options.
Download or read book The Fear Index written by Robert Harris and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2012-01-31 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the nexus of high finance and sophisticated computer programming, a terrifying future may be unfolding even now. Dr. Alex Hoffmann’s name is carefully guarded from the general public, but within the secretive inner circles of the ultrarich he is a legend. He has developed a revolutionary form of artificial intelligence that predicts movements in the financial markets with uncanny accuracy. His hedge fund, based in Geneva, makes billions. But one morning before dawn, a sinister intruder breaches the elaborate security of his lakeside mansion, and so begins a waking nightmare of paranoia and violence as Hoffmann attempts, with increasing desperation, to discover who is trying to destroy him. Fiendishly smart and suspenseful, The Fear Index gives us a searing glimpse into an all-too-recognizable world of greed and panic. It is a novel that forces us to confront the question of what it means to be human—and it is Robert Harris’s most spellbinding and audacious novel to date.
Download or read book The Information Content of Intraday VIX and Its Expected Correlation on the S P 500 written by Oren Tapiero and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scope of this paper is two-fold. First, to study the significance of the VIX index at intraday (five minutes) time resolution. Second, to emphasize the expected (intraday) conditional correlation between the S&P 500 and VIX log-returns. A weighted likelihood ratio test Amisano and Giacomini (2007), performed on intraday S&P 500 log-returns, suggests that the VIX index bears significant linear, asymmetric and nonlinear predictive information for the one-step ahead S&P 500 log-returns forecast density. In addition, it provides significant evidence to nonlinear and asymmetric impact of the expected (intraday) conditional correlation between market and volatility indices.
Download or read book Volatility as an Asset Class written by Clifford W. Stanton and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Market Volatility Index, or VIX, was conceived in 1993 by Professor Robert E. Whaley of Duke University to provide a benchmark of expected short-term volatility. According to the CBOE: “VIX measures 30-day expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index. The components of VIX are near - and next - term put and call options, usually in the first and second S&P 500 Index (SPX) contract months.” As will be demonstrated in this paper, the value of volatility itself lies in the fact that it is negatively correlated to the returns of the equity market and becomes increasingly so as market declines accelerate. As a result, long exposure to volatility could provide increasing levels of portfolio protection exactly when investors are most in need of such protection. Another way to think about this is that because most investors are net long equities, they are implicitly short volatility, and therefore hedging that exposure may be prudent.
Download or read book The Price of Fixed Income Market Volatility written by Antonio Mele and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-11 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fixed income volatility and equity volatility evolve heterogeneously over time, co-moving disproportionately during periods of global imbalances and each reacting to events of different nature. While the methodology for options-based "model-free" pricing of equity volatility has been known for some time, little is known about analogous methodologies for pricing various fixed income volatilities. This book fills this gap and provides a unified evaluation framework of fixed income volatility while dealing with disparate markets such as interest-rate swaps, government bonds, time-deposits and credit. It develops model-free, forward looking indexes of fixed-income volatility that match different quoting conventions across various markets, and uncovers subtle yet important pitfalls arising from naïve superimpositions of the standard equity volatility methodology when pricing various fixed income volatilities.
Download or read book Asset Pricing and Portfolio Performance written by Robert A. Korajczyk and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive reference work presenting an original framework for evaluating observed differences in returns across assets.
Download or read book An Analysis of the VIX Volatility Index on the US Treasuries Specifically During the Periods of Quantitative Easing written by Carolyne Soper and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volatility is a concern of many investors. In turbulent financial times there can be a flight from the equity market to treasury bonds in order to provide greater security, liquidity and guarantee of returns. Calculated as a weighted average of put and call options on the S&P 500 Index, the VIX is considered as a forecasting indicator of the S&P 500 Index's volatility over a one-month period. The dependent variable in this study is the 10-year Treasury note. The 10-year T-note is the most widely tracked government bond, and it is used as a benchmark for banks and the Treasury market in calculating mortgage rates. One conclusion of this analysis is that implied stock volatility may be a valuable variable for financial applications that need to interpret and predict stock and bond market co-movements. Based the empirical analysis conducted; across models the change in VIX was predictive of the change in treasury. The model examination determined that in the model that included the autoregressive and moving average provided the most accurate results.
Download or read book The VIX Index and Volatility Based Global Indexes and Trading Instruments A Guide to Investment and Trading Features written by Matthew T. Moran and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past two decades, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX® Index), a key measure of investor sentiment and 30-day future volatility expectations, has generated much investor attention because of its unique and powerful features. The introduction of VIX futures in 2004, VIX options in 2006, and other volatility-related trading instruments provided traders and investors access to exchange-traded vehicles for taking long and short exposures to expected S&P 500 Index volatility for a particular time frame. Certain VIX-related tradable products may provide benefits when used as tools for tail-risk hedging, diversification, risk management, or alpha generation. Gauges of expected stock market volatility for various regions include the VIX Index (United States), AXVI Index (Australia), VHSI Index (Hong Kong), NVIX Index (India) and VSTOXX Index (Europe). All five of these volatility indexes had negative correlations with their related stock indexes price movements, and all five volatility indexes rose more than 50% in 2008. Although the five volatility indexes are not investable, investors can explore VIX-based benchmark indexes that show the performance of hypothetical investment strategies using VIX futures or options. Before investing in volatility-related products, investors should closely study the pricing, roll cost, and volatility features of the tradable products and read the applicable prospectuses and risk disclosure statements.
Download or read book The VIX the Variance Premium and Stock Market Volatility written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500 options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. The latter is increasing in risk aversion in a wide variety of economic settings. We tackle several measurement issues assessing a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models. We then examine the predictive power of the VIX and its two components for stock market returns and economic activity. The variance premium predicts stock returns but the conditional stock market variance predicts economic activity, and is more contemporaneously correlated with financial instability than is the variance premium.
Download or read book Directional Exposure to Volatility via Listed Futures S P 500 VIX Short Term Futures Index written by Global Research & Design S&P Dow Jones Indices and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volatility has emerged as an important asset class in the last decade. It is actively traded through over-the counter swaps, and more recently through exchange listed VIX futures and options. While VIX has achieved widespread recognition, it remains very challenging to replicate spot VIX. The Samp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index is the first index to offer replicable, directional exposure to volatility using exchange-listed futures contracts. The index is comprised of two near term VIX futures contracts, which are rebalanced daily in equal increments in order to maintain a constant one month maturity. While the correlation between spot VIX and the Samp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index is not perfect, it is a healthy 87%. More importantly, the correlation of the index to the Samp;P 500 is -76%, similar to the correlation of spot VIX to the Samp;P 500 of -74%. The index has a positive return 95% of the time that the Samp;P 500 has a loss of more than 1%. During days of sharp market declines, index returns are usually greater in value than corresponding Samp;P 500 losses. Dedicated long positions in the index are expected to decline during normal volatility regimes. Not only is volatility mean reverting to a theoretical expected long term return of zero, but the index is also expected to suffer from roll loss due to term structure decay. Conversely, short positions in the index provide exposure to a forward starting volatility arbitrage strategy.
