Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Download or read book Stock Return Predictability written by Arthur Ritter and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2015-05-27 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 17 (1,3), University of St Andrews (School of Management), course: Investment and Portfolio Management, language: English, abstract: Empirical evidence of stock return predictability obtained by financial ratios or macroeconomic factors has received substantial attention and remains a controversial topic to date. This is no surprise given that the existence of return predictability is not only of interest to practitioners but also introduces severe implications for financial models of risk and return. Founded on the assumption of efficient capital markets, research on capital asset pricing models has instigated this emergence of stock return predictability factors. Analysing these factors categorically, this paper will provide a balanced discussion of advocates as well as sceptics of stock return predictability. This essay will commence by firstly outlining the fundamental assumptions of an efficient capital market and its implications for return predictability. Subsequently, a thorough focus will be placed on the most significant predictability factors, including fundamental financial ratios and macroeconomic indicators as well as the validity of sampling methods used to attain return forecasts. Lastly this essay will reflect on the findings while proposing areas of further research.

Download or read book Understanding Stock Return Predictability written by Hui Guo and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.

Download or read book Asset Pricing written by John H. Cochrane and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-04-11 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea--price equals expected discounted payoff--that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model--consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing--is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.

Download or read book Woodcock Johnson IV written by Nancy Mather and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-26 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes online access to new, customizable WJ IV score tables, graphs, and forms for clinicians Woodcock-Johnson IV: Reports, Recommendations, and Strategies offers psychologists, clinicians, and educators an essential resource for preparing and writing psychological and educational reports after administering the Woodcock-Johnson IV. Written by Drs. Nancy Mather and Lynne E. Jaffe, this text enhances comprehension and use of this instrument and its many interpretive features. This book offers helpful information for understanding and using the WJ IV scores, provides tips to facilitate interpretation of test results, and includes sample diagnostic reports of students with various educational needs from kindergarten to the postsecondary level. The book also provides a wide variety of recommendations for cognitive abilities; oral language; and the achievement areas of reading, written language, and mathematics. It also provides guidelines for evaluators and recommendations focused on special populations, such as sensory impairments, autism, English Language Learners, and gifted and twice exceptional students, as well as recommendations for the use of assistive technology. The final section provides descriptions of the academic and behavioral strategies mentioned in the reports and recommendations. The unique access code included with each book allows access to downloadable, easy-to-customize score tables, graphs, and forms. This essential guide Facilitates the use and interpretation of the WJ IV Tests of Cognitive Abilities, Tests of Oral Language, and Tests of Achievement Explains scores and various interpretive features Offers a variety of types of diagnostic reports Provides a wide variety of educational recommendations and evidence-based strategies

Download or read book Empirical Analysis of Stock Market Return Predictability written by Justus Heuer and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Predicting Stock Returns written by David G McMillan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-30 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive analysis of asset price movement. It examines different aspects of stock return predictability, the interaction between stock return and dividend growth predictability, the relationship between stocks and bonds, and the resulting implications for asset price movement. By contributing to our understanding of the factors that cause price movement, this book will be of benefit to researchers, practitioners and policy makers alike.

Download or read book Specification Searches written by E. E. Leamer and published by . This book was released on 1978-04-24 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offers a radically new approach to inference with nonexperimental data when the statistical model is ambiguously defined. Examines the process of model searching and its implications for inference. Identifies six different varieties of specification searches, discussing the inferential consequences of each in detail.

Download or read book Stock Return Predictability written by Farhang Farazmand and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investors' views, expressed in individual securities, when averaged are informative about the future path of aggregate market returns. Our predictor of the market, PC-OI, is an average of traders' positions in options on individual stocks, formed simply by summing the put open interest across all stocks and dividing by the summed call open interest. Predictability is strongest when the measure is constructed from a subset of stocks subject to arbitrage constraints. The measure has strong in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power, and creates substantial utility gains for a mean-variance investor. The predictive power is not subsumed by the host of existing predictors in the literature. A trading strategy using our measure would have made up to 208% over our sample period, compared to a cumulative market return of 90%.

Download or read book Stock Return Predictability written by Alex D. Patelis and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Download or read book Predictability of the Swiss Stock Market with Respect to Style written by Patrick Scheurle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-07-03 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Patrick Scheurle investigates refined market segments such as small value stocks or large growth stocks with respect to return predictability. The empirical research reveals significant positive first-order serial correlation in the returns of large value stocks, large neutral stocks, small neutral stocks, and small growth stocks.

Download or read book Stock Return Predictability and Investor Sentiment written by Licheng Sun and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore the predictive relation between high-frequency investor sentiment and stock market returns. Our results are based on a proprietary dataset of high-frequency investor sentiment, which is computed based on a comprehensive textual analysis of sources from news wires, internet news sources, and social media. We find substantial evidence that intraday S&P 500 index returns are predictable using lagged half-hour investor sentiment. The predictability is evident based on both in-sample and out-of-sample statistical metrics. We document that this sentiment effect is independent of the intraday momentum effect, which is based on lagged half-hour returns. While the intraday momentum effect only exists in the last half hour, the sentiment effect persists in at least the last two hours of a trading day. From an investment perspective, high-frequency investor sentiment also appears to have significant economic value when evaluated with market timing trading strategies.

Download or read book Stock Return Predictability and Conditional Asset Pricing Models written by Ane Miren Tamayo and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Return Predictability in Santiago Stock Exchange written by Carlos Elias and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis on stock return predictability in Santiago Stock Exchange from January 2007 to January 2016 by employing portfolio method. In the risk-related predictors, we found no statistically significant predictive power of beta, total volatility, and idiosyncratic volatility in all stock sets. In addition to market cap and short-term reversal, the two cheapness variables, book-to-market and cash-flow-to-price ratios showed consistent economically and statistically significant predictive powers in determining the stock returns in the Santiago Stock Exchange. We also found that regrouping the stocks as small and large, low and high book-to-market, beta, and momentum according to the median values adds insights to the analysis. Our results show that the set of large stocks in the exchange is the least predictable set of stocks, however, momentum is efficiently predicted their return. Momentum is significant only for the large stocks and low book-to-market stocks, and risk-related predictors are good for high beta stocks only.

Download or read book Stock Return Predictability with Financial Ratios written by Wasim Ud Din and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this paper is to investigate the stock return's predictability by using financial ratios and control variable of PSX 100 Index companies during period from 2001-2014. The current study mainly focuses on investigating better predictor of stock returns. The methodology is based on Ordinary Least Square (OLS) to estimate the multiple linear regression model. The correlation matrix shows that there is no multicollinearity found between variables. The result of F-Limer test shows that the panel data is appropriate while Hausman test shows that random effect model is appropriate to estimate the model. The results reveal that all variables are statistically significant but some variables have negative impact on stock returns such as asset turnover ratio, EPS, inflation, interest rate and GDP. However, debt ratio, return on sales, firm size, market return and Tobin's-Q have positive and significant impact on stock returns. In conclusion, potential investors not only focus on huge returns for investing in smaller market cap firms but also investing in large market cap firms of PSX 100 Index companies due to reason that large firms benefit from economies of scale. Furthermore, the stock returns are predictable through financial ratios and control variables in PSX 100 Index Companies and investors also set the investment criterion to see the firm size and Tobin's-Q when investing in large or small market cap companies to earn excess returns.