Download or read book Understanding House Price Volatility written by Bengte L. Evenson and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The speed with which its house prices respond to real economic shocks is critical to the functioning of an economic market. This speed is determined relative to the magnitudes of house price changes on the off-equilibrium path, as the market adjusts. When such changes are caused by an unexpected shift in housing demand, which is a substantial component of the variation in house prices, the magnitudes are determined by the elasticity of housing supply. I examine local housing-supply dynamics in each of 47 U.S. metropolitan-area housing markets using a unique market-level panel dataset. The data are analyzed with a conditional vector-autoregression, which characterizes the dynamic responses of housing price and stock to an increase in housing demand caused by a shift in employment. These response time-paths are used to create measures of short-, medium-, and long-run supply elasticities. Both the time-paths and the implied elasticities vary widely. I use several area characteristics to explain the variation in the supply elasticity measures across metropolitan areas. The results suggest that an area's population, land area, historical growth rate, region, January temperature, age of housing stock and incentive to regulate housing are all important determinants of a market's house-price response.

Download or read book Market Volatility written by Robert J. Shiller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1992-01-30 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.

Download or read book The Ins and Outs of Selling Houses written by Liwa Rachel Ngai and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the cyclical properties of housing-market variables, which are shown to be volatile, persistent, and highly correlated with each other. Is the observed volatility in these variables due to changes in the speed at which houses are sold or changes in the number of houses that are put up for sale? An inflow-outflow decomposition shows that the inflow rate accounts for almost all of the fluctuations in sales volume. The paper then shows that a search-and-matching model with endogenous moving subject to housing demand shocks performs well in explaining fluctuations in housing-market variables. A housing demand shock induces more moving and increases the supply of houses on the market, thus one housing demand shock replicates three correlated reduced-form shocks that would be needed to match the relative volatilities and correlations among key housing-market variables.

Download or read book Can Property Taxes Reduce House Price Volatility Evidence from U S Regions written by Mr.Tigran Poghosyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-27 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a novel dataset on effective property tax rates in U.S. states and metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over the 2005–2014 period to analyze the relationship between property tax rates and house price volatility. We find that property tax rates have a negative impact on house price volatility. The impact is causal, with increases in property tax rates leading to a reduction in house price volatility. The results are robust to different measures of house price volatility, estimation methodologies, and additional controls for housing demand and supply. The outcomes of the analysis have important policy implications and suggest that property taxation could be used as an important tool to dampen house price volatility.

Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.

Download or read book Rational Expectations Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility written by Jim Clayton and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper derives a forward-looking rational expectations house price model and empirically tests its ability to explain short-run fluctuations in real house prices. A novel approach to proxying the imputed rents of owner-occupied housing, as a function of observable housing market fundamentals, is derived and combined with a housing market arbitrage relation to derive a present value model for real house prices. Tests of the rational expectations, nonlinear cross-equation restrictions reject the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and the asset-based housing price model for quarterly, single-detached house prices in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia, over the 1979-1991 sample period. The model fails to fully capture observed house price dynamics in two real estate booms but tracks real house prices well in less volatile times, suggesting that prices may temporarily deviate from fundamental values in real estate price cycles.

Download or read book House Price Indices written by Thomas G. Thibodeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1997-03-31 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains a special issue of the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, comprising thirteen articles on house price measurement. These articles address the various procedures used to compute cross-sectional or temporal house price indices. Specifically, these articles contain research that: (1) evaluates hedonic, repeat sales, or hybrid approaches to constructing house price indices; (2) evaluates alternative sources of data on house prices and corresponding housing characteristics; (3) identifies the most influential land, structural, neighborhood, and proximity determinants of house prices (and associated changes in house prices); (4) provides a methodology for identifying housing market segments; (5) incorporates spatial autocorrelation in house price indices; and (6) provides more accurate estimates of the variance in house prices.

Download or read book Global House Price Fluctuations written by Mr.Hideaki Hirata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

Download or read book House Price Volatility and the Housing Ladder written by James Banks and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the effects of spatial housing price risk on housing choices over the first half of the life-cycle. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, most people want to eventually own their home thereby creating an insurance demand early in life. Our contribution focuses on the importance of home ownership as a hedge against future house price risk for individuals that plan to move up the housing ladder. We use a simple theoretical model to show that people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, live in larger homes, and be less likely to refinance. These predictions are shown to hold using panel data from the United States and United Kingdom.

Download or read book Residential Mortgage Default written by Wayne R. Archer and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: House price volatility; lender and borrower perception of price trends, loan and property features; and the borrower's put option are integrated in a model of residential mortgage default. These dimensions of the default problem have, to our knowledge, not previously been considered altogether within the same investigation framework. We rely on a sample of individual mortgage loans for twenty counties in Florida, over the period 2001 through 2008, third quarter, with housing price performance obtained from repeat sales analysis of individual transactions. The results from the analysis strongly confirm the significance of the borrower's put as an operative factor in default. At the same time, the results provide convincing evidence that the experience in Florida is in part by lenders and purchasers exhibiting euphoric behavior such that in markets with higher price appreciation there is a willingness to accept recent prior performance as an indicator of future risk. This connection illustrates a familiar moral hazard in the housing market due to the limited information about future prices.

Download or read book Exploring Metropolitan Housing Price Volatility written by Norman G. Miller and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates dynamic interrelations between the volatility of single-family home appreciation and the rate of home value appreciation, personal income, population, unemployment rate, and GMP at the metropolitan level, using a large quarterly data set that covers 316 metropolises in the United States from 1978 to 2002. We use a novel three-step approach that allows for time-dependent expected home appreciation rates while controlling for unobserved metropolitan attributes and macro factors. We find that the appreciation volatility can be explained based on past home appreciation rate and volatility, exogenous shocks to the housing market, and population growth. The volatility affects expected future home value appreciation, as well as the growth rates of personal income and population. Last we find evidence that constrained housing supplies in more populated metropolises influence appreciation rates and volatility.

Download or read book Understanding Affordability written by Meen, Geoffrey and published by Bristol University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-08 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For many younger and lower-income people, housing affordability continues to worsen. Based on the academic research of two distinguished housing economists – and stimulated by working with governments across the world - this wide-ranging book sets out clear theoretical and empirical frameworks to tackle one of today’s most important socio-economic issues. Housing unaffordability arises from complex forces and a prerequisite to effective policy is understanding the causes of rising house prices and rents and the interactions between housing, housing finance and the macroeconomy. The authors challenge many of the conventional wisdoms in housing policy and offer innovative recommendations to improve affordability.

Download or read book House Price Volatility and the Housing Ladder written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the effects of spatial housing price risk on housing choices over the first half of the life-cycle. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, most people want to eventually own their home thereby creating an insurance demand early in life. Our contribution focuses on the importance of home ownership as a hedge against future house price risk for individuals that plan to move up the housing ladder. We use a simple theoretical model to show that people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, live in larger homes, and be less likely to refinance. These predictions are shown to hold using panel data from the United States and United Kingdom.

Download or read book Volatility in Home Sales and Prices written by Elliot Anenberg and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Expectation Speculation and UK House Pricing Fluctuation written by Chenoy Ceil and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The research aims at understanding the housing price fluctuations to examine what measures can be taken to reduce the housing market volatility and control the persistent boom and bust cycles in the UK housing market. In past research, several models have been developed to measure housing price volatility, such as the Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity. This research is of seminal importance for future policy makers, and the Government to understand how to regulate the volatility of the UK housing market.

Download or read book Endogenous Sources of Volatility in Housing Markets written by Elliot Anenberg and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents new empirical evidence that internal movement - selling one home and buying another - by existing homeowners within a metropolitan housing market is especially volatile and the main driver of fluctuations in transaction volume over the housing market cycle. We develop a dynamic search equilibrium model that shows that the strong pro-cyclicality of internal movement is driven by the cost of simultaneously holding two homes, which varies endogenously over the cycle. We estimate the model using data on prices, volume, time-on-market, and internal moves drawn from Los Angeles from 1988-2008 and use the fitted model to show that frictions related to the joint buyer-seller problem: (i) substantially amplify booms and busts in the housing market, (ii) create counter-cyclical build-ups of mismatch of existing owners with their homes, and (iii) generate externalities that induce significant welfare loss and excess price volatility.

Download or read book Economics written by John Sloman and published by Pearson Higher Ed. This book was released on 2015-01-06 with total page 938 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economics has never been so exciting to learn! The ninth edition of Economics contains the most up-to-the minute coverage and uses the latest data to track and analyse the impact of the global financial crisis on our economy. ‘Economics’ is popular for its active learning and student-friendly approach, and the new edition retains its classic features that provide a solid foundation for the study of economics, while covering much of the recent turmoil in the economy. Comprehensive coverage of the credit crunch, the subsequent global recession, the legacy of debt, faltering recovery in the world economy and the policy debates about tackling the problems Complete update of boxes, examples and changes to data / legislation, including more cases that relate to policy development · Want to see economics in action? Search online for the Sloman Economics News Site - a blog that’s updated several times a week with current affairs and topical stories ... all linked into your textbook so you can explore the background to the issues more deeply. Need extra support? This product is the book alone, and does NOT come with access to MyEconLab. This title can be supported by MyEconLab, an online homework and tutorial system which can be used by students for self-directed study or fully integrated into an instructor's course. You can benefit from MyEconLab at a reduced price by purchasing a pack containing a copy of the book and an access card for MyEconLab: Economics, plus MyEconLab with Pearson eText., 9/e (ISBN 9781292064864). Alternatively, buy access online at www.MyEconLab.com. Use the power of MyEconLab to accelerate your learning. You need both an access card and a course ID to access MyEconLab: · 1. Is your lecturer using MyEconLab? Ask your lecturer for your course ID · 2. Has an access card been included with the book? Check the inside back cover of the book. · 3. If you have a course ID but no access card, go to: http://www.myeconlab.com/ to buy access to this interactive study programme. Now in its 9th edition, Economics by Sloman et al is known and loved for its active learning, student-friendly approach and unmatched lecturer and student support. Retaining all the hall mark features of previous editions, it continues to provide a balanced, comprehensive and completely up-to-date introduction to the world of economics. Please note that the product you are purchasing does not include MyEconLab. MyEconLab Join over 11 million students benefiting from Pearson MyLabs. This title can be supported by MyEcpnLab, an online homework and tutorial system designed to test and build your understanding. Would you like to use the power of MyEconLab to accelerate your learning? You need both an access card and a course ID to access MyEconLab. These are the steps you need to take: 1. Make sure that your lecturer is already using the system Ask your lecturer before purchasing a MyLab product as you will need a course ID from them before you can gain access to the system. 2. Check whether an access card has been included with the book at a reduced cost If it has, it will be on the inside back cover of the book. 3. If you have a course ID but no access code, you can benefit from MyEconLab at a reduced price by purchasing a pack containing a copy of the book and an access code for MyEconLab (ISBN:9781292064864) 4. If your lecturer is using the MyLab and you would like to purchase the product... Go to www.myeconlab.com to buy access to this interactive study programme. For educator access, contact your Pearson representative. To find out who your Pearson representative is, visit www.pearsoned.co.uk/replocator